September 6 2012 Drought Statement

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1038 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND SLIGHTLY IN THE RED RIVER
BASIN...

SYNOPSIS...
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ADDRESSES THE COUNTIES WITHIN
THE GRAND FORKS AREA OF FORECASTING RESPONSIBILITY. CHECK WITH
NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OR MINNESOTA.

MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA REMAIN IN VARIOUS LEVELS OF DROUGHT. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM
ABNORMALLY DRY IN MUCH OF THE DEVILS LAKE...UPPER PEMBINA RIVER...
PARTS OF LAKE OF THE WOODS TO MODERATE OR SEVERE DROUGHT ELSEWHERE
IN THE RED RIVER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST LAKE OF THE WOODS...THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF ROSEAU...
NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...THE EASTERN HALF OF MARSHALL...MOST OF
POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON...NORMAN...NORTHWEST CLAY AND
MAHNOMEN COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA REMAIN IN SEVERE DROUGHT. ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF NELSON...GRAND FORKS...STEELE...
TRAILL...GRIGGS...BARNES...CASS AND RANSOM COUNTIES ARE IN SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS SEVERAL BANDS OF MODEST RAINFALLS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH HAVE FALLEN. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
HAVE BEEN OVER THE DEVILS LAKE...LOWER RED RIVER BASIN AND ROSEAU
RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS...WHILE WELCOME...REPRESENT
ABOUT 50 PERCENT TO 75 PERCENT OF THE TWO WEEK NORMAL. SINCE
EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SUB-MEDIAN RAINFALL. THE GREATEST
DEFICITS CONTINUE IN THE GRIGGS...TRAILL AND STEELE COUNTY AREAS
OF NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS NORMAN...MAHNOMEN...EASTERN MARSHALL
AND BELTRAMI COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA. IN THESE AREAS 25 PERCENT OR
LESS OF THE MONTHLY MEDIAN HAS FALLEN.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
IN AREAS WERE NEAR MEDIAN RAINS HAVE FALLEN THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REPLENISHMENT OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER IS RATED AS BEING IN THE LOWER
10 PERCENT TO 15PERCENT OF NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 3 FEET.
ACCORDING TO THE USDA...THE STATE OF MINNESOTA HAS 22 PERCENT OF
THE TOP SOIL RATED AS VERY SHORT WITH 41 PERCENT RATED SHORT AND
37 PERCENT ADEQUATE. ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA 19 PERCENT OF THE TOP
SOIL IS RATED AS VERY SHORT WITH 53 PERCENT RATED SHORT AND 28
PERCENT ADEQUATE. MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING RAINFALL DEFICITS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SINCE APRIL 1 2012. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SPRING
AND SUMMER RAINFALLS PRECIPITATION IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE AND
USERS SHOULD REFER TO COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS FOR DETAILS.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS.
MOST RIVERS IN THE REGION CONTINUE TO SEE LOW TO VERY LOW FLOWS.
U.S. GEOLOGIC SURVEY /USGS/ GROUNDWATER DATA SUGGEST A CONTINUED
OVERALL DECLINE IN THE AVERAGE WATER TABLE ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN POLK AND BELTRAMI COUNTIES OF
MINNESOTA. RIVER FLOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 10 PERCENT OF MEDIAN ON
THE RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON...THE CLEARWATER RIVER AT RED LAKE
FALLS...SOUTH BRANCH OF THE TWO RIVER AT LAKE BRONSON...THE ROSEAU
RIVER AT ROSS AND THE RAPID RIVER NEAR BAUDETTE. BASED ON THE USGS
DEEP-WELLS SOME LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR AT RECORD LOWS...INCLUDING
THE CROOKSTON AND BEMIDJI AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUT THE RELEVANT MONITORING LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING CONTINUED DECLINES IN THE GROUNDWATER TABLE.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
THE INFORMATION BELOW IS PROVIDED BY THE RESPECTIVE STATE
AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER MONITORING AND FIRE
SAFETY...AND IS VALID AS OF AUGUST 22 2012. CHECK WITH THE
RESPECTIVE STATE WEB PAGES FOR DAILY UPDATES.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 5 2012...THE MINNESOTA DNR INDICATES THE FIRE DANGER
AS VERY HIGH IN NORTHERN CLEARWATER...MOST OF BELTRAMI...ALL OF
KITTSON...ROSEAU...MARSHALL AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES. FIRE
DANGER IN THE HIGH CATEGORY WAS NOTED IN THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF
THE GRAND FORKS FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. BURNING PERMITS ARE
REQUIRED OR VARIANCE PERMITS ARE REQUIRED OVER ALL OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

ACCORDING TO THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY...BURN
RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE
SPIRIT LAKE TRIBAL LANDS IN EASTERN BENSON AND NORTHERN EDDY
COUNTIES... AS WELL AS PEMBINA AND GRAND FORKS COUNTIES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THE OVERALL POSITIVE DEPARTURE HAS RANGED FROM 4 TO 6
DEGREES SINCE THE END OF AUGUST. AS STATED EARLIER RECENT
PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY BELOW MEDIAN THE PAST 2 WEEKS
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MEDIAN TO ABOVE MEDIAN RAIN.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN RIGHT ON
THROUGH MUCH OF SEPTEMBER.

THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2012 SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS NO DEFINITIVE CLIMATIC SIGNAL
REGARDING EXPECTED FALL 2012 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALONG THE MAIN STEM RED RIVER...FLOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50TH
PERCENTILE OR LOWER RANGE. SOME TRIBUTARIES ARE SEEING CONSIDERABLY
LOWER FLOWS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE ROSEAU
RIVER AT MALUNG IS SHOWING NO FLOW...AND MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER 10 PERCENTILE. BASED ON THE AUGUST 27TH RUN OF THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES /AHPS/ LITTLE CHANGE IN FLOWS ARE
FORECAST THE NEXT 30 TO 60 DAYS. BOTH DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE
WILL EXPERIENCE SLOW AND STEADY RECESSIONS...PERHAPS UP TO ANOTHER
1 FOOT BY NOVEMBER. THESE LAKE PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON CURRENT
OPERATING PLANS OF THE OUTLETS...EXPECTED NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
DECREASING AMOUNTS OF EVAPORATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON SEPTEMBER 13 2012 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU
ND STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.NDSU.NODAK.EDU/NDSU/NDSCO
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
4797 TECHNOLOGY CIRCLE
GRAND FORKS ND 58203
PHONE...701-772-0720 X327
MARK.EWENS@NOAA.GOV

$$

EWENS



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