Updated Drought Statement

...SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN THE RED
RIVER BASIN...

SYNOPSIS...
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ADDRESSES THE COUNTIES WITHIN
THE GRAND FORKS AREA OF FORECASTING RESPONSIBILITY. CHECK WITH
NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OR MINNESOTA.

MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA REMAIN IN VARIOUS LEVELS OF DROUGHT. CONDITIONS RANGE
FROM ABNORMALLY DRY IN THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN...UPPER
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND MUCH OF THE OTTERTAIL RIVER BASIN TO MODERATE
OR SEVERE DROUGHT ELSEWHERE IN THE RED RIVER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST LAKE OF THE WOODS...THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF ROSEAU...
NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...THE EASTERN HALF OF MARSHALL...MOST OF
POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON...NORMAN...NORTHWEST CLAY...THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CLEARWATER AND MAHNOMEN COUNTIES OF
MINNESOTA REMAIN IN SEVERE DROUGHT. ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MUCH OF NELSON...GRAND FORKS...ALL OF STEELE...
TRAILL...GRIGGS...BARNES...CASS...AND MOST OF RANSOM AND RICHLAND
COUNTIES ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

SINCE THE START OF SEPTEMBER SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF MODEST
RAINFALLS HAVE FALLEN. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER
THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE...LOWER RED RIVER BASIN AND LOWER ROSEAU
RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS...WHILE
WELCOME...REPRESENT ABOUT 50 PERCENT TO 75 PERCENT OF THE TWO
WEEK NORMAL. SINCE SEPTEMBER FIRST MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SUB-
MEDIAN RAINFALL. THE GREATEST DEFICITS CONTINUE IN THE
GRIGGS...TRAILL...STEELE...CASS...RANSOM RICHLAND AND SARGENT
COUNTY AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OVER MINNESOTA POLK...NORMAN...
MAHNOMEN...EASTERN MARSHALL...LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BELTRAMI
COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA HAVE SEEN 25 PERCENT OR LESS OF MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION THE PAST 2 WEEKS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE USDA AND STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA...AGRICULTURAL
DISASTER DECLARATIONS/DUE TO THE DROUGHT/ HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARNES...CASS...GRAND FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...STEELE AND TRAILL
COUNTIES. A SIMILAR DROUGHT DISASTER DECLARATION WAS MADE FOR MANY
MINNESOTA COUNTIES EARLIER THIS YEAR. SEE YOUR LOCAL EXTENSION
AGENCIES FOR DETAILS.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
IN AREAS WERE NEAR MEDIAN RAINS HAVE FALLEN THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REPLENISHMENT OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE...YET THIS HAS BEEN MINIMAL
AND IS EASILY DEPLETED BY THE WARM AND VERY DRY WEATHER OF LATE.
MOST OF THE REGION WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER IS RATED AS
BEING IN THE LOWER 10 TO 15 PERCENT OF NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE TOP
3 FEET. ACCORDING TO THE USDA...THE STATE OF MINNESOTA HAS 27
PERCENT OF THE TOP SOIL RATED AS VERY SHORT WITH 42 PERCENT RATED
SHORT AND 31 PERCENT ADEQUATE. ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA 21 PERCENT OF
THE TOP SOIL IS RATED AS VERY SHORT WITH 54 PERCENT RATED SHORT
AND 25 PERCENT ADEQUATE. MOST AREAS CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SINCE APRIL 1 2012. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
SPRING AND SUMMER RAINFALLS PRECIPITATION IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE
AND USERS SHOULD REFER TO COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS FOR DETAILS.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS.
MOST RIVERS IN THE REGION CONTINUE TO SEE LOW TO VERY LOW FLOWS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGIC SURVEY /USGS/ AND NWS
PERSONNEL SUGGEST VERY LOW TO NO FLOW CONDITIONS ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS.

GROUNDWATER DATA FROM THE USGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED OVERALL
DECLINE IN THE AVERAGE WATER TABLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN POLK AND BELTRAMI COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA. RIVER FLOWS
ARE IN THE LOWER 10 PERCENT OF MEDIAN ON THE RED LAKE RIVER AT
CROOKSTON...THE CLEARWATER RIVER AT RED LAKE FALLS...SOUTH BRANCH
OF THE TWO RIVER AT LAKE BRONSON...THE ROSEAU RIVER AT ROSS AND
THE RAPID RIVER NEAR BAUDETTE. BASED ON THE USGS DEEP-WELLS SOME
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR AT RECORD LOWS...INCLUDING THE CROOKSTON
AND BEMIDJI AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT THE RELEVANT MONITORING LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUED DECLINES IN THE GROUNDWATER TABLE....INTO THE LOWER 25
PERCENTILE. ACCORDING TO THE USGS BOTH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MINNESOTA ARE IN MODERATE HYDROLOGIC
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
THE INFORMATION BELOW IS PROVIDED BY THE RESPECTIVE STATE
AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER MONITORING AND FIRE
SAFETY. CHECK WITH THE RESPECTIVE STATE WEB PAGES FOR DAILY
UPDATES...WILDFIRES...BURN RESTRICTIONS AND FIRE DANGER RATINGS.
CONDITIONS ARE UPDATED DAILY SO REFER BACK TO THE STATE AND LOCAL
AGENCIES OFTEN.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 13 2012...THE MINNESOTA DNR INDICATES THE FIRE
DANGER AS EXTREME IN POLK...PENNINGTON...MAHNOMEN...MOST OF
CLEARWATER...SOUTHERN BELTRAMI AND NORTHERN HUBBARD COUNTIES. VERY
HIGH FIRE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED IN LAKE OF THE WOODS...NORTHERN
BELTRAMI...EXTREME NORTH CLEARWATER...RED LAKE...MARSHALL AND
ROSEAU COUNTIES. THE FIRE DANGER WAS HIGH IN NORMAN...CLAY...
BECKER...SOUTHERN HUBBARD...ALL OF WADENA...OTTER TAIL...GRAND AND
WILKIN COUNTIES.

ACCORDING TO THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY...
BURN RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE SPIRIT LAKE TRIBAL LANDS IN EASTERN BENSON AND NORTHERN
EDDY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PEMBINA AND GRAND FORKS COUNTIES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SINCE THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER A SLOW CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES FALLING SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THE OVERALL POSITIVE DEPARTURE HAS
RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 DEGREES SINCE THE END OF AUGUST. AS STATED
EARLIER RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED BELOW MEDIAN THE PAST 2
WEEKS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MEDIAN TO ABOVE MEDIAN RAIN.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A COOLER REGIME...WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MEDIAN AS WELL.

THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2012 SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS NO DEFINITIVE CLIMATIC SIGNAL
REGARDING EXPECTED FALL 2012 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALONG THE MAIN STEM RED RIVER...FLOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50TH
PERCENTILE OR LOWER RANGE. SOME TRIBUTARIES ARE SEEING
CONSIDERABLY LOWER FLOWS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE ROSEAU RIVER AT MALUNG IS SHOWING NO FLOW...AND MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 10 PERCENTILE. BASED ON THE AUGUST 27TH
RUN OF THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES /AHPS/ LITTLE
CHANGE IN FLOWS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 30 TO 60 DAYS. BOTH DEVILS
LAKE AND STUMP LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE SLOW AND STEADY
RECESSIONS...PERHAPS UP TO ANOTHER 1 FOOT BY NOVEMBER. THESE LAKE
PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON CURRENT OPERATING PLANS OF THE
OUTLETS...EXPECTED NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
EVAPORATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON SEPTEMBER 20 2012 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU
ND STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.NDSU.NODAK.EDU/NDSU/NDSCO
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
4797 TECHNOLOGY CIRCLE
GRAND FORKS ND 58203
PHONE...701-772-0720 X327
MARK.EWENS@NOAA.GOV



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