September 20 2012 Drought Statement

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
352 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE RED
RIVER BASIN...

NWS GRAND FORKS LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION WEB PAGE


SYNOPSIS...
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ADDRESSES THE COUNTIES WITHIN
THE GRAND FORKS AREA OF FORECASTING RESPONSIBILITY. CHECK WITH
NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OR MINNESOTA.

MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA REMAIN IN VARIOUS LEVELS OF DROUGHT. CONDITIONS RANGE
FROM ABNORMALLY DRY IN THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN...UPPER LAKE
OF THE WOODS AND MUCH OF THE OTTERTAIL RIVER BASIN TO MODERATE OR
SEVERE DROUGHT ELSEWHERE IN THE RED RIVER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST LAKE OF THE WOODS...THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF ROSEAU...
NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...THE EASTERN HALF OF MARSHALL...MOST OF
POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON...NORMAN...NORTHWEST CLAY...THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CLEARWATER AND MAHNOMEN COUNTIES OF
MINNESOTA REMAIN IN SEVERE DROUGHT. ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MUCH OF NELSON...GRAND FORKS...ALL OF STEELE...
TRAILL...GRIGGS...BARNES...CASS...AND MOST OF RANSOM AND RICHLAND
COUNTIES ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

SINCE SEPTEMBER 13TH MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL.
ONE HALF TO ISOLATED 1 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED IN
PORTIONS OF RICHLAND...SARGENT AND RANSOM COUNTIES IN NORTH
DAKOTA AS WELL AS WILKIN AND OTTERTAIL COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.
THESE RAINS REPRESENT ABOUT 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
OTHERWISE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13TH MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SUB-
MEDIAN RAINFALL
. KITTSON...ROSEAU...BELTRAMI...MARSHALL...POLK...
PENNINGTON...RED LAKE...NORTHERN CLEARWATER...NORMAN AND HUBBARD
COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA...AND CAVALIER...PEMBINA...EASTERN
WALSH...MUCH OF GRAND FORKS...NELSON AND TRAILL HAVE SEEN 10
PERCENT OR LESS OF MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THE PAST WEEK.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE USDA AND STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA...AGRICULTURAL
DISASTER DECLARATIONS/DUE TO THE DROUGHT/ HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
VARIETY OF COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA THE PAST
MONTH OR SO. SEE YOUR LOCAL EXTENSION AGENCIES FOR DETAILS.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
IN AREAS WERE NEAR MEDIAN RAINS HAVE FALLEN THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REPLENISHMENT OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE...BUT DUE TO THE LATE SEASON
IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL. MOST OF THE REGION WITHIN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY PROPER IS RATED AS BEING IN THE LOWER 2 TO 10 PERCENT OF
NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 3 FEET. ACCORDING TO THE USDA...THE
STATE OF MINNESOTA HAS 32 PERCENT OF THE TOP SOIL RATED AS VERY
SHORT WITH 44 PERCENT RATED SHORT AND 24 PERCENT ADEQUATE. ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA 32 PERCENT OF THE TOP SOIL IS RATED AS VERY SHORT
WITH 51 PERCENT RATED SHORT AND 17 PERCENT ADEQUATE. MOST AREAS
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SINCE APRIL
1 2012. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SPRING AND SUMMER RAINFALLS
PRECIPITATION IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE AND USERS SHOULD REFER TO
COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS FOR DETAILS.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS.
MOST RIVERS IN THE REGION CONTINUE TO SEE LOW TO VERY LOW FLOWS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGIC SURVEY /USGS/ AND NWS
PERSONNEL SUGGEST VERY LOW TO NO FLOW CONDITIONS ON SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS.

GROUNDWATER DATA FROM THE USGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED OVERALL
DECLINE IN THE AVERAGE WATER TABLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN POLK AND BELTRAMI COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA. RIVER FLOWS
ARE IN THE LOWER 10 PERCENT OF MEDIAN ON THE RED LAKE RIVER AT
CROOKSTON...THE CLEARWATER RIVER AT RED LAKE FALLS...SOUTH BRANCH
OF THE TWO RIVER AT LAKE BRONSON...THE ROSEAU RIVER AT ROSS AND
THE RAPID RIVER NEAR BAUDETTE. BASED ON THE USGS DEEP-WELLS SOME
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR AT RECORD LOWS...INCLUDING THE CROOKSTON
AND BEMIDJI AREAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT THE RELEVANT MONITORING LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING
CONTINUED DECLINES IN THE GROUNDWATER TABLE....INTO THE LOWER 25
PERCENTILE. ACCORDING TO THE USGS BOTH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MINNESOTA CONTINUE IN MODERATE
HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
THE INFORMATION BELOW IS PROVIDED BY THE RESPECTIVE STATE
AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER MONITORING AND FIRE SAFETY.
CHECK WITH THE RESPECTIVE STATE WEB PAGES FOR DAILY UPDATES...
WILDFIRES...BURN RESTRICTIONS AND FIRE DANGER RATINGS. CONDITIONS
ARE UPDATED DAILY SO REFER BACK TO THE STATE AND LOCAL AGENCIES
OFTEN.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 20 2012...THE MINNESOTA DNR INDICATES THE FIRE
DANGER AS VERY HIGH IN POLK...RED LAKE...MOST OF BELTRAMI...ALL
OF CLEARWATER...NORMAN...MAHNOMEN...CLAY...BECKER...OTTER
TAIL...WILKIN...WADENA AND HUBBARD.

ACCORDING TO THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY...
BURN RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE SPIRIT LAKE TRIBAL LANDS IN EASTERN BENSON AND NORTHERN
EDDY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS PEMBINA...WALSH AND GRAND FORKS
COUNTIES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTER HAS RESULTED IN A COOLING
TREND...WITH THE USUAL DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY NOTED. SINCE THE
FIRST OF SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY NEAR TO OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS A RETURN TO A WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME...WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.

THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2012 SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS NO DEFINITIVE CLIMATIC SIGNAL
REGARDING EXPECTED FALL 2012 OR EARLY WINTER 2012/2013
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALONG THE MAIN STEM RED RIVER...FLOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50TH
PERCENTILE OR LOWER RANGE. SOME TRIBUTARIES ARE EXPERIENCING
CONSIDERABLY LOWER FLOWS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE ROSEAU RIVER AT MALUNG IS SHOWING NO FLOW...AND MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 10 PERCENTILE. BASED ON THE AUGUST 27TH
RUN OF THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES /AHPS/ LITTLE
CHANGE IN FLOWS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 30 TO 60 DAYS. BOTH DEVILS
LAKE AND STUMP LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE SLOW AND STEADY RECESSIONS...
PERHAPS UP TO ANOTHER 1 FOOT BY NOVEMBER. THESE LAKE PROJECTIONS
ARE BASED ON CURRENT OPERATING PLANS OF THE OUTLETS... EXPECTED
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF EVAPORATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON SEPTEMBER
27 2012 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU
ND STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.NDSU.NODAK.EDU/NDSU/NDSCO
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
4797 TECHNOLOGY CIRCLE
GRAND FORKS ND 58203
PHONE...701-772-0720 X327
MARK.EWENS@NOAA.GOV



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