February 21 2013 Spring Flood Outlook

The following is the February 21st Red River Valley and Devils Lake Basin Spring Snow-melt Flood outlook.

Images of the various probablistic products may be found on the NWS AHPS web page. Below is the Textual representation.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
938 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.

...SPRING SNOWS INCREASES FLOOD RISK IN RED RIVER BASIN...


. OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

* THE PROBABILITIES OF MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK /60% OR GREATER/ FOR...
- MAJOR FLOODING AT WAHPETON, FARGO AND ABERCROMBIE.
- MODERATE FLOODING AT OSLO, DRAYTON AND PEMBINA.
- MINOR FLOODING AT HICKSON, HALSTAD, GRAND FORKS, SABIN,
HAWLEY, DILWORTH, HENDRUM, CROOKSTON, HALLOCK AND MINTO.

THERE IS A FAIR RISK /30% TO 60%/ FOR
- MAJOR FLOODING AT PEMINA.
- MODERATE FLOODING AT HICKSON, HALSTAD, GRAND FORKS, HAWLEY,
DILWORTH, HALLOCK, HARWOOD AND NECHE
- MINOR FLOODING AT CLIMAX, KINDRED, WEST FARGO DIVERSION,
HARWOOD, MAPLETON, GRAFTON, WAHALLA, AND NECHE.

THERE IS A LOW RISK /LESS THAN 30%/ FOR MINOR FLOODING OR GREATER
AT TWIN VALLEY, SHELLY, HIGH LANDING, MORKASSEL ABOVE
WARREN, ALVARADO, ROSEAU, VALLEY CITY, LISBON, ENDERLIN,
AND HILLSBORO.

* THIS 90 DAY OUTLOOK COVERS THE PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY 25 TO
MAY 26TH, 2013.


. OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS WHICH
AFFECT EACH OF THE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT DETERMINE SPRING SNOWMELT
FLOODING WITHIN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN ARE DISCUSSED
BELOW:

* SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...

- SNOWPACK RANGES FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE RED
RIVER BASIN. LATE JANUARY AND FEBRUARY SNOW STORMS AND BLIZZARDS
ADDED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SNOW WATER TO THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN.

- SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA /WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN/ ...TO 10 TO 20 INCHES IN
MOST OF THE REST OF THE BASIN... WITH UPWARDS OF TWO FEET IN THE
HEADWATER REGIONS OF THE RED BASIN FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY.

- WATER CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK RANGES MOSTLY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE SHALLOWER SNOWS, 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE REST WITH UPWARDS
OF 5 INCHES IN THE DEEPER SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE RED BASIN.

- THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED IN THESE PROBABILITIES /RISKS/
DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN SNOWPACK AND CORRESPONDING SNOW WATER
MEASUREMENTS TAKEN BY GROUND AND ARIEAL RESOURCES. PARTNER AGENCIES
AND VOLUNTEER NETWORKS WILL BE OUT IN FULL FORCE FROM LATE FEBRUARY
THROUGH EARLY MARCH TO FILL ANY EXISTING DATA GAPS.

* SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS...

- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PREVAILED IN ACROSS THE RED RIVER
BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECEDING WATER YEAR HAVE LESSENED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE RECENT FALL/WINTER PERIOD. DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE SPRING RUNOFF PERIOD.

- WINTERTIME SOIL CONDITIONS ARE A CARRY OVER FROM CONDITIONS AT
FREEZE-UP, WITH DRY MIDDLE AND DEEP SOILS AND A MOIST TO WET
TOPSOIL. TOPSOILS WERE MOSTLY RECHARGED WITH FALL RAINS AND
PARTIAL EARLY SNOW MELTS.

- FROST DEPTHS IN THE BASIN ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH 38 INCHES AT
GRAND FORKS AND 35 INCHES AT PEMBINA.

* RIVER FLOWS AND ICE...

- EXCEPT FOR THE SHEYENNE, MINNESOTA WILD RICE AND THE RED LAKE
RIVERS, THE TRIBUTARY RIVERS AND STREAM IN THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN ARE FLOWING AT LESS THAN 10 CFS, WHICH IS QUITE LOW
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 3 YEARS.

- RIVER ICE IS VARIABLE BUT IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE, WHICH IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

- ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING BREAKUP ESPECIALLY IN TIGHT
RIVER BENDS, UPSTREAM OF BRIDGES, OR NEAR RIVER CONFLUENCES.

* FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED...

- GROWTH OF THE SNOWPACK...
- RATE OF SNOWMELT/THAW...
- HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW/FROZEN GROUND DURING THAW OR PEAK FLOOD.
- TIMING OF FLOOD CRESTS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.

* SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST...
- THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
- THE OUTLOOK FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

* SPRING FLOOD SEASON CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

THE MONTHLY AND SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOKS PRODUCED BY THE
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THAT THERE ARE NO
STRONG CLIMATE SIGNALS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE RED RIVER
REGION FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY. THEREFORE...

- FOR MARCH...THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, BELOW AND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED RISK FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EAST.

- FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY...THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, BELOW
AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

. NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THE MORNING OF
THURSDAY, MARCH 7TH, 2013

. FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS TWO SECTIONS...THE FIRST GIVES THE
CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING
THEIR MINOR...MODERAT AND MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY...THE SECOND
GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER
STAGES LISTED.



...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBAILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...

VALID FROM FEBRUARY 25, 2013 TO MAY 26, 2013

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABIITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING TAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERAGE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2013 - 5/26/2013

: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS S PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : >95 45 >95 24 64 12
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 82 16 40 8 <5 <5
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : >95 66 >95 30 79 19
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 87 30 30 12 8 6
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : >95 53 45 28 6 9
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : >95 59 >95 51 19 17
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : >95 46 62 32 8 11
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : >95 46 80 40 40 19
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
SABIN 12.0 15.0 19.0 : >95 64 14 12 <5 <5
HAWLEY 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 77 50 32 24 <5 <5
DILWORTH 12.0 20.0 26.0 : >95 67 33 17 <5 <5
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 8 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : >95 48 27 21 <5 <5
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 16 28 <5 6 <5 <5
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 33 19 9 8 <5 <5
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : 22 28 14 24 11 19
CROOKSTON 15.0 23.0 25.0 : 72 50 <5 14 <5 8
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 76.0 : 12 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 19 22 8 11 <5 <5
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : 88 56 32 37 <5 <5
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : 21 19 11 11 9 11
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....
ABERCROMBIE 10.0 12.0 18.0 : >95 40 >95 32 64 16
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 6 14 <5 8 <5 6
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 12 8 9 <5 <5 <5
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 35 21 16 9 9 <5
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : 48 24 28 16 17 9
HARWOOD 884.0 886.0 891.0 : 48 21 33 17 14 8
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 17 21 6 8 <5 <5
MAPLETON 905.0 908.0 910.0 : 54 27 21 11 <5 <5
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 14 14 9 8 <5 <5
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : 61 30 21 11 <5 <5
GRAFTON 12.0 13.5 14.5 : 43 19 17 <5 <5 <5
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 32 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : 58 24 48 21 22 12

LEGEND:
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION ( " " NORMAL CONDITIONS)
FT = FEET (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)



...RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...

VALID FROM FEBRUARY 25, 2013 TO MAY 26, 2013

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD


...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...


CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2013 - 5/26/2013

LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....
WAHPETON 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.8 15.6 17.2 18.0
HICKSON 27.0 28.6 31.6 33.6 35.0 36.5 37.8
FARGO 26.4 27.7 30.9 33.2 35.1 36.6 37.8
HALSTAD 24.0 24.5 27.6 30.1 32.9 37.2 37.7
GRAND FORKS 32.8 34.0 36.1 39.4 42.5 45.6 48.8
OSLO 32.6 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.6 36.9 38.2
DRAYTON 32.7 33.9 35.6 39.7 40.8 41.9 43.1
PEMBINA 40.3 42.7 45.1 48.1 50.0 51.9 52.7


MINNESOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....
SABIN 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.9 16.8
BUFFALO RIVER.....
ALVARADO 101.1 101.1 101.6 104.0 105.6 107.7 109.5
HAWLEY 6.3 6.6 7.1 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.7
DILWORTH 15.7 16.2 17.4 18.8 21.0 22.2 22.9
WILD RICE RIVER.....
TWIN VALLEY 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.2 9.9 10.9
HENDRUM 20.8 21.4 23.1 26.2 28.5 30.2 31.2
MARSH RIVER.....
SHELLY 7.3 7.7 8.3 8.8 13.0 15.6 18.5
SAND HILL RIVER.....
CLIMAX 11.1 12.0 14.3 17.8 21.6 25.4 29.3
RED LAKE RIVER.....
HIGH LANDING 4.5 4.8 9.0 10.4 11.9 13.1 15.0
CROOKSTON 11.2 11.7 14.8 16.5 20.2 22.5 23.6
SNAKE RIVER.....
ABOVE WARREN 63.8 63.9 64.3 65.1 65.9 67.7 71.0
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....
HALLOCK 801.5 801.7 803.1 805.2 806.8 808.3 809.0
ROSEAU RIVER.....
ROSEAU 10.3 10.8 11.7 13.1 14.9 19.3 19.9


NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
WILD RICE RIVER.....
ABERCROMBIE 14.5 15.1 17.1 19.3 21.0 22.7 23.7
SHEYENNE RIVER.....
VALLEY CITY 8.3 8.7 9.4 10.9 12.0 13.0 16.8
LISBON 8.5 9.2 9.9 11.2 12.9 17.2 19.1
KINDRED 12.1 12.4 13.2 15.0 17.8 20.7 21.1
WEST FARGO DVRSN 15.6 16.1 16.4 17.8 20.6 23.0 23.2
HARWOOD 879.7 880.2 882.0 883.9 888.7 891.2 892.1
MAPLE RIVER.....
ENDERLIN 7.3 7.5 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.4 13.0
MAPLETON 903.2 903.4 904.5 905.2 907.1 908.9 909.7
GOOSE RIVER.....
HILLSBORO 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.5 8.5 13.4 16.5
FOREST RIVER.....
MINTO 4.3 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.6 8.9 9.3
PARK RIVER.....
GRAFTON 10.5 10.6 11.1 11.8 13.2 14.0 15.0
PEMBINA RIVER.....
WALHALLA 6.4 6.8 8.7 10.4 11.7 14.0 14.6
NECHE 11.2 11.7 15.9 19.0 20.4 21.4 21.5

DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

FROM FEBRUARY 18, 2013 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW WATER IN DEVILS AND STUMP
LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR
THE PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY 18, 2013 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2013.


CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE
THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS

PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
FROM 2/18/2013 TO 9/30/2013

LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
CREEL BAY 1452.4 1452.6 1452.9 1453.2 1453.7 1454.4 1454.6
STUMP LAKE.....
EAST STUMP LAKE 1452.4 1452.6 1452.9 1453.2 1453.7 1454.4 1454.6
DEVILS LAKE.....
STUMP LAKE.....

THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS NOT AVAILABLE.
THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1451.3 FEET

THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT FOR
DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
...1454.30 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2011
PREVIOUS RECORDS:
...1452.05 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2010
...1450.93 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2009
...1449.20 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006
...1449.18 FEET ON JUNE 17 OF 2004
...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST 2 OF 2005

FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:

HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING


CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW
GIVEN LAKE LEVELS

PROBABILITIES FOR NON-EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
FROM 2/18/2013 TO 9/30/2013

LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY 1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.1 1450.8 1450.7
EAST STUMP LAKE 1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.1 1450.8 1450.7

WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:

WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE_FCST.PHP

ADDITIONALLY...7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:

WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM_INFO.PHP
.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS
DURING THE TIME-FRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2009.


. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER
MID-MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE
ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...
USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND
ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS"ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

A NEW...POINT SPECIFIC FLOOD BRIEFING WEB PAGE IS AVAILABLE AT:

WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/BRIEFING/FLOODBRIEFING.PHP (USE LOWER CASE)

ALSO...7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED AT LEAST ONCE A
DAY WHEN THE RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT FLOOD DURING THAT
PERIOD.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND LOW-
WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.
TEAM FGF


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