Spring Thaw Progress for the Red River Basin - April 12

...SPRING THAW PROGRESS FOR RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ADDS MOISTURE TO RED RIVER BASIN...

SPRING THAW PROGRESS HAS STALLED WHILE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
HAS ADDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW WATER TO THE SNOWPACK
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN. SOME
MINOR SNOWMELT WAS EVIDENT EARLIER IN THE WEEK IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE BASIN WITH WATER REPORTED TO BE RUNNING OVER ROADS IN
WILKIN COUNTY AND IN STREAMS AND DITCHES ABOVE THE NORTH OTTAWA
IMPOUNDMENT OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN THE MUSTINA RIVER FLOWING INTO
LAKE TRAVERSE RESERVOIR...THERE HAVE BEEN NO STRONG RISES IN THE
BASIN RIVERS AND STREAMS YET.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY SNOW...IS EXPECTED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDING
ANOTHER 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AND THE RED RIVER BASIN. THE BEST PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
BAND IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED BUT REFER TO UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE GRAND FORKS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF) FOR MORE DETAILED AND TIMELY INFORMATION AND
FORECASTS ABOUT THIS STORM AND ITS EFFECTS.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT DEVILS LAKE. WITH THIS
TEMPERATURE RANGE...WE SHOULD SEE A SLOWLY INCREASING SNOW MELT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN AND IN PLACES WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS
THIN. THE EARLY STAGES OF OVERLAND FLOODING MAY BEGIN AS MELTWATER
FIRST PONDS IN FIELDS AND THEN STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE RIVER
CHANNELS. THIS MELTWATER RUNOFF SHOULD START TO MAKE IT TO NEARBY
RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THE DITCHES AND DRAINS OPEN UP. ACCORDINGLY...
WE SHOULD SEE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE RIVERS OF THE
SOUTHERN BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK OR LATER.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOKS...UNFORTUNATELY...INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF
THIS UNUSUALLY COLD WEATHER PATTERN. THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY WEATHER
OUTLOOK THAT GOES THROUGH APRIL 26TH CALLS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE LAST HALF OF APRIL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
THIS PERIOD OFTEN HAS RAPID CHANGES IN THE WEATHER AND OFTEN A PERIOD
ON ENHANCED STORMINESS. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL OF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MONTH OF MAY.

AS IT GETS LATER INTO THE SPRING SNOWMELT SEASON...THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
WEATHER AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

 * FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS 7-DAY RIVER FORECASTS
     WILL BE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
       OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THAT FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 7-DAY FORECASTS ARE PRESENTED AS TEXT PRODUCTS OF DAILY RIVER
STAGES AT ESTABLISHED RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS AND HYDROGRAPHS OF
6 HOUR RIVER STAGES FOR THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THESE GRAPHS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS
AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" TAB ABOVE THE MAP OR THE
LINK IN THE MENU ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.

WE WILL BE UPDATING THE SPRING THAW PROGRESS REPORTS PERIODICALLY
DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS WE SEE CONDITIONS CHANGING OR UNTIL THE
SNOWPACK MELTS.



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