Devils Lake Hydro Outlook - June/July 2013

Updated Devils Lake Basin Long Range Hydrologic Oulook
CURRENTLY...THERE IS ONLY A 10% RISK OF DEVILS LAKE OR STUMP
LAKE EXCEEDING 1454.0 FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WARM SEASON:
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
            VALID FROM JULY 3, 2013 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2013


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1453.9 1453.9 1453.9 1453.9 1453.9 1454.0 1454.0
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1453.9 1453.9 1453.9 1453.9 1453.9 1454.0 1454.0
THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE THE LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TYPICALLY START TO DROP DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
SEASONAL EVAPORATION OFF THE LAKE SURFACE EXCEEDING THE EFFECTS OF
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE WATER LEVELS IN THE
SHEYENNE RIVER HAVE DROPPED...THE STATE OUTLETS HAVE BEGUN THEIR
PUMPING OPERATIONS. BOTH OF THESE EFFECTS ARE REFLECTED IN THESE 
LATEST PROBABALISTIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE. AT
THE TIME THESE OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED...DEVILS LAKE WAS VERY NEAR
AN ELEVATION OF 1453.9 FEET...AND THE EXPECTATION WAS THAT THE
LAKE WOULD DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH JULY 3RD...WHEN THESE OUTLOOKS
TAKE AFFECT.

THESE PROBABILITIES ARE BASED ON 60 YEARS OF PAST WEATHER OVER THE
BASIN...AND ANY LAKE RISES DUE TO WEATHER NOT EXPERIENCED OVER THOSE
YEARS WILL NOT BE CAPTURED IN THESE OUTLOOKS. THEREFORE ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTS OCCURING WHEN THE LAKE IS STILL HIGH MAY RAISE
THE LAKE BEYOND THE 5% LEVEL. PLEASE BE AWARE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER LAKE LEVELS THAN
THOSE PROJECTED BY THIS OUTLOOK.

THIS GRAPH SHOWS THE CHANCE OF DEVILS LAKE EXCEEDING A WATER LEVEL
DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, JULY 3RD THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30TH, 2013:
 
Chance of Exceedance at Devils Lake ND, effective July 3rd, 2013
THIS GRAPH SHOWS THE COMPONENT TRACES WHICH WERE USED TO CREATE THIS
PROBAILISTIC DISTRIBUTION. THEY SHOW MODELED LAKE RESPONSES TO HISTORIC MID TO
LATE LATE SUMMER WEATHER EVENTS, GIVEN THE EXISTING HIGH LAKE LEVEL. FOR EXAMPLE,
MOST WET MID-SUMMER TYPE YEARS WOULD ONLY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF LAKE RISE, THOUGH
A VERY WET SUMMER LIKE 1993 COULD SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE RISE:
Component traces for Devils Lake ND probabilities, effective July 3rd, 2013
 


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