Devils Lake Hydro Outlook - Late July 2013

Update to Devils Lake Basin Long Range Hydrologic Outlook

Currently...there is only a 10% risk of Devils Lake or Stump
Lake exceeding 1453.7 feet through the end of October...and
a 10% chance for the lakes falling below 1451.8 feet through
the end of November per the Tables below...

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
                FROM JULY 29, 2013 TO OCTOBER 27, 2013              

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1453.6 1453.6 1453.6 1453.7 1453.7 1453.7 1453.7
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1453.6 1453.6 1453.6 1453.7 1453.7 1453.7 1453.7

           PROBABILITIES FOR NON-EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
             FROM SEPTEMBER 1, 2013 TO NOVEMBER 30, 2013           

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1452.9 1452.7 1452.2 1452.0 1451.9 1451.8 1451.7
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1452.9 1452.7 1452.2 1452.0 1451.9 1451.8 1451.7

DRIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND OUTLET
PUMPING LED TO LESS THAN EXPECTED LAKE RISES LAST MONTH.
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS RANGED FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE NORTHERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

LATE SUMMER IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TYPICALLY START TO DROP DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
SEASONAL EVAPORATION OFF THE LAKE SURFACE EXCEEDING THE EFFECTS OF
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE WATER LEVELS IN THE
SHEYENNE RIVER HAVE DROPPED...THE STATE OUTLETS HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR PUMPING OPERATIONS. BOTH OF THESE EFFECTS ARE REFLECTED IN
THESE LATEST PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE.
BASED ON THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT DEVILS LAKE WILL CONTINUE
A VERY SLOW FALL THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.


This graph shows the chance of Devils Lake exceeding a water level
during the Outlook period July 29th through October 27th.

DL POE Graph

This graph shows the component traces which were used to create this
porbabilistic distribution. They show modeled lake responses to historic
late-summer and early-fall weather conditions...applied to the current
lake levels.

DL Traces Graph



Return to News Archive

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.