National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Issued at:  810 AM CDT Thursday, July 27 2006

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND EXTREME DROUGHT SPREADS THROUGH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...

.SYNOPSIS...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST 4 TO 6 WEEKS...COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE LEAD
TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE U.S DROUGHT MONITOR HAS
SHOWN A ONE TO TWO CATEGORY INCREASE IN DROUGHT INTENSITY SINCE JULY
11. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST...SO NO
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...AND FURTHER
DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS CLASSIFIED THE
AREAS WEST OF AN ACADEMY TO WESSINGTON LINE AS BEING IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). THE REMAINING AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A CARPENTER TO
PARKER TO GREGORY SD LINE ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...AS WELL AS
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER IOWA LINE. MODERATE
DROUGHT (D1) HAS BEEN DESIGNATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...
AND ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

.CLIMATE SUMMARY...RAINFALL FROM MAY THROUGH JUNE AVERAGED 45 TO 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...DEPARTING FROM NORMAL BY 3.5
TO 4.5 INCHES. HISTORICALLY...MAY AND JUNE 2006 HAVE BEEN DRIER THAN
MORE THAN 95 PERCENT OF THE YEARS SINCE 1895 ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THROUGH MID JULY...PRECIPITATION HAS
AVERAGED LESS THAN 0.30 INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHICH IS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE TABLE BELOW DETAILS
VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND DEPARTURES FOR A FEW SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS.

LOCATION       5/1/06-     NORMAL     DEPARTURE   PERCENT 
               7/15/06     5/1-7/15   FROM        OF 
               RAINFALL    RAINFALL   NORMAL      NORMAL 

HURON SD       3.45"       8.19"      -4.74"      42.1% 
CHAMBERLAIN SD 2.41"       8.52"      -6.11"      28.3% 
SIOUX FALLS SD 4.86"       8.37"      -3.51"      58.1% 
SIOUX CITY IA  4.44"       9.01"      -4.57"      49.3% 
SPENCER IA     4.05"       9.66"      -5.61"      41.9%

.SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...THE SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION SHOW DEFICITS OF 1.5 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO 3.5
INCHES IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE SOIL ARE
TOTALLY DRY...AND THE LOWER LAYERS ARE HOLDING 0.54 INCHES ON
AVERAGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (9% OF CAPACITY)...2.25 INCHES
IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA (28% OF CAPACITY)...AND 4.0 INCHES IN
NORTHWEST IOWA (40% OF CAPACITY).

.RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...WATER LEVELS IN AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. IN THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN...STREAMFLOWS ARE IN THE 15TH-30TH PERCENTILE (70 TO 85
PERCENT OF YEARS HAVE HAD HIGHER STREAMFLOWS). THE VERMILLION RIVER
IS RUNNING IN THE 10TH-25TH PERCENTILE. THE BIG SIOUX RIVER ABOVE
SIOUX FALLS IS IN THE 20TH-40TH PERCENTILE...AND IN THE 40TH-60TH
PERCENTILE BELOW SIOUX FALLS. THE UPPER LITTLE SIOUX RIVER IS IN THE
15TH-25TH PERCENTILE...AND THE LOWER LITTLE SIOUX RIVER IS IN THE
40TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE. RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 45TH TO 55TH PERCENTILE. THE MISSOURI RIVER AT SIOUX CITY IS
AT THE 25TH PERCENTILE.

.FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN RAPIDLY
DRYING UP AND BROWNING IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. CURRENT PERCENT GREEN
VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 20% NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO NEAR 40
PERCENT IN THE BIG SIOUX RIVER BASIN...AND 50 PERCENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORY FOR ALL
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN.

.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE 90S EAST TO 100 TO 110 WEST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...COOLING SOME INTO THE 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 8
TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 3 THROUGH 9. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK
FOR AUGUST SHOW A SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER
SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONE WEEK PRECIPITATION FORECAST SHOWS THE REGION WILL RECEIVE AN
AVERAGE OF LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. THE 8 TO 14 DAY...30 DAY...AND 90
DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ALL INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT
THE DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT...

MIKE GILLISPIE
HYDROLOGIST/CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SIOUX FALLS SD
(605) 330-4247
MICHAEL.GILLISPIE@NOAA.GOV

.RELATED WEB SITES...

LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE...AND WATER INFORMATION
http://www.weather.gov/fsd

 

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION
http://water.usgs.gov

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE NOAA CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...THE USDA...AND THE USGS.

.NEXT ISSUANCE...THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
AROUND AUGUST 17TH 2006. ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THIS STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED SOONER IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR OUTLOOKS CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

Return to News Archive