Where might October end in terms of temperature and precipitation?

Through the first 22 days of October, temperatures at Joe Foss Field in Sioux Falls have averaged 42.0 degrees (a combination of the high plus the low divided by 2), which is 8.3 degrees below normal.  There has also been 4.29 inches of precipitation, which is 2.88 inches above normal this far into the month.  Where might the month end?  Here are a few possibilities, some obviously more likely than others.

If the forecast values for the next week are perfect, and one uses the normals to close out the month...

October Computations Using Forecast Values

 

              

Departure

Rank

Mean Temperature

41.6

-6.4

4th Coldest

Average Maximum Temperature

48.9

-12.2

2nd Coldest

Average Minimum Temperature

34.3

-0.5

near normal

Total Precipitation

4.83"

+2.90"

7th wettest

If the month was to end entirely normal...

October Computations Using Normal Values to Close out the Month

 

              

Departure

Rank

Mean Temperature

42.3

-5.7

4th Coldest

Average Maximum Temperature

51.0

-10.1

4th Coldest

Average Minimum Temperature

33.6

-1.2

near normal

Total Precipitation

4.72"

+2.79"

7th wettest

 

What would it take to have the month average out normal?  Each day would have to end up 17.5 degrees ABOVE normal!  This would mean high temperatures ranging from 69 to 75 degrees, with lows from 45 to 49 degrees.  


Here are the rankings for the period of October 1 through October 22.

Coldest High Temperatures for the Period

2009

48.6

1925

51.9

1917

54.9

1969

55.7

Coldest Mean Temperature for the Period

2009

42.0

1917

42.0

1925

42.7

1987

44.8



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