Spring Flood Outlook/Climatological Review and Outlook

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HASTINGS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA /HSA/. IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS OUTLOOK INCLUDES THE
PLATTE...LOUP...LITTLE BLUE...AND REPUBLICAN RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE SOLOMON RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES ARE INCLUDED.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...

...SHORT TERM HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...FEBRUARY 20TH - MARCH 6TH...

THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT SNOWPACK MOISTURE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY MARCH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CHANCE OF SNOW MELT OR
PRECIPITATION-INDUCED FLOODING THROUGH EARLY MARCH IS VERY LOW AND
EVEN BELOW HISTORICAL NORMS. HOWEVER...MANY AREA RIVERS ARE STILL
ICE COVERED AND THUS THE POTENTIAL OF ICE JAM FLOODING IS STILL
THERE UNTIL ICE OUT. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING
INCLUDE THE LOUP AND PLATTE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY MARCH SO THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY TO MID MARCH.

...LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...MARCH 6TH THROUGH MAY 23RD...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH
MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING.  THEY ARE BASED
ON SOIL MOISTURE...SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST OF FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS.

THE LONG RANGE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES FAIRLY
EQUAL CHANCES OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE UNITED STATES
DROUGHT MONITOR PLACES OUR ENTIRE HSA IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE
DROUGHT WITH THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES.

THE ONLY RIVER WITHIN THE HASTINGS HSA THAT ORIGINATES DEEP IN THE
ROCKIES AND IS FED BY SPRING SNOW MELT IS THE PLATTE RIVER. AFTER
TWO DRY YEARS WITH BELOW NORMAL SNOW PACK...THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SNOW PACK THIS YEAR. THE PROJECTED SPRING
AND SUMMER STREAMFLOW FORECAST IN THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE RESERVOIRS ALONG THE
PLATTE RIVER ARE GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE RECENT
DROUGHT. THUS HIGH WATER OR FLOODING FROM MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT RUN OFF
IS UNLIKELY.

THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL PERSIST UNTIL ICE FLUSHES OUT OF
RIVERS...WHICH MAY NOT BE UNTIL AROUND MID MARCH. THUS THOSE ALONG THE
LOUP AND PLATTE RIVERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING
UNTIL THE ICE MELTS OFF THE RIVERS LATER IN MARCH. FROST DEPTH IS
ABNORMALLY THICK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THUS IF ANY HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS SHOULD OCCUR IN MARCH PRIOR TO THE GROUND THAWING THERE COULD
BE A RUNOFF FLOODING THREAT.

AFTER CONSIDERING ALL OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FACTORS...THE OVERALL
FORECAST FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA IS TO
EXPECT A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF SEEING SPRING FLOODING. HOWEVER...IT
IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EVEN IN DRY PERIODS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GENERATED BY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL REVIEW...

BEFORE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT MORE RECENT PRECIPITATION
TRENDS...LETS START WITH A LOOK BACK AT HOW THINGS FARED
DURING THE YEAR 2013 ACROSS THE 30-COUNTY NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA
(24 COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...6 IN KANSAS). IN A NUTSHELL...ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FELL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SHORT OF 30-YEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE YEAR...MOST PLACES WERE NOT NEARLY
AS DRY AS THEY WERE DURING THE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT THAT DEFINED
2012. PUT ANOTHER WAY...BACK IN 2012 MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ONLY
OBSERVED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 40-80 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD AT PLACES SUCH
AS GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT. DURING 2013...AT LEAST MODEST IMPROVEMENTS
TO THE DROUGHT SITUATION TOOK PLACE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL
AREA MEASURED ANNUAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 75-105
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WAS A RATHER PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCE IN 2013 ANNUAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA (WHICH ONLY AVERAGED 65-80
PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA
(GENERALLY 95-115 PERCENT OF NORMAL). IN BETWEEN...CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES MEASURED VERY
NEAR-NORMAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATION. AS EVIDENCE OF THE SOUTHWEST
(DRIER) VERSUS NORTHEAST (WETTER) DISPARITY DURING 2013...A FEW OF
THE DRIEST NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES DURING 2013 INCLUDED
PHILLIPSBURG KS WITH ONLY 16.17 INCHES (9.25 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)
AND EIGHT MILES SOUTH OF ELWOOD WITH 17.07 INCHES (6.36 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL). IN CONTRAST...FARTHER NORTHEAST A FEW OF THE WETTEST
STATIONS DURING 2013 WERE TWO MILES WEST OF GENOA WITH 33.35 INCHES
(4.53 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL) AND ST. PAUL WITH 30.38 INCHES (4.17
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL).

THE FIRST TABLE BELOW CONTAINS PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR OF
2013...WITH DATA GIVEN FOR 30 LOCATIONS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. MOST OF THESE STATIONS ARE NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER
SITES...ALONG WITH A FEW PRIMARY AIRPORT SITES:


LOCATION                             PRECIP
NORTH CENTRAL KS      ALL OF 2013      NORMAL   DEPARTURE        % NORMAL
--------                                        --------                  ------                  ---------            --------
ALTON 2SW                             20.69                  26.13               -5.44               79
BELOIT                                      27.77                  27.92               -0.15             100
BURR OAK                               24.44                  27.06                -2.62              90
LOGAN                                      17.74                  22.73                -4.99              78
NATOMA                                    24.44                  26.29                -1.85              93
PHILLIPSBURG                      16.17                   25.42                 -9.25             64
PLAINVILLE 4WNW                21.26                   25.43                -4.17              84
SMITH CENTER                      23.53                    25.71                -2.18             92


  LOCATION                               PRECIP
SOUTH CENTRAL NE        ALL OF 2013     NORMAL   DEPARTURE      % NORMAL
--------                                             --------              ------                ---------               --------
CAMBRIDGE                                17.71             22.49               -4.78                  79
LEXINGTON 6SSE                     18.58             23.44                -4.86                  79
CLAY CENTER 6ESE                22.90             27.50                -4.60                  83
ELWOOD 8S                               17.07             23.43                -6.36                  73
FRANKLIN                                    20.91             26.23               -5.32                  80
GENOA 2W                                   33.35             28.82              +4.53                116
GENEVA                                        28.68             29.27               -0.59                  98
GOTHENBURG                           24.43             23.71               +0.72                103
GRAND ISLAND ARPT               26.92             26.66               +0.26                101
GREELEY                                     28.24             26.91               +1.33                105
HASTINGS AIRPORT                 25.21             27.11                -1.90                   93
HEBRON                                      29.25             31.39                -2.14                   93
HOLDREGE                                 21.48             27.00                -5.52                   80
KEARNEY AIRPORT                  26.34             25.23                +1.11                104
NELSON                                      28.77             27.82                +0.95                104
ORD AIRPORT                           24.35             24.94                 -0.59                   98
OSCEOLA                                   28.50             28.89                 -0.39                    99
RAVENNA                                    27.09            26.54                 +0.55                 102
RED CLOUD                              19.70             26.03                  -6.33                   76
ST.PAUL                                      30.38             26.21                +4.17                 116
SUPERIOR 4E                           27.16             27.85                 -0.69                    98
YORK 3N                                     26.12             30.23                  -4.11                   86


AS A RESULT OF THE 2013 PRECIPITATION TRENDS DESCRIBED IN THE
PRECEDING TEXT AND TABLE...THE OVERALL-POSITIVE NEWS DURING THE YEAR
WAS THAT MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS TOOK PLACE DURING
2013...BASED ON DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION ASSIGNED BY THE WEEKLY U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR. HOWEVER...THIS IMPROVEMENT WAS MORE PRONOUNCED
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THAN IN THE WEST. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...WHEN 2013 BEGAN...NEARLY THE ENTIRE WAS CLASSIFIED IN
EITHER CATEGORY D3 EXTREME OR CATEGORY D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (THE
WORST-POSSIBLE CATEGORY). HOWEVER...BY YEAR`S END...THE ENTIRE AREA
WAS VOID OF BOTH D3 AND D4 DROUGHT...ALTHOUGH CATEGORY D1 MODERATE
AND CATEGORY D2 SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUED TO HOLD ON WITHIN MUCH OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...OR ROUGHLY WITHIN COUNTIES WEST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.

NOW THAT PRECIPITATION DURING 2013 HAS BEEN ANALYZED...ITS TIME TO
EXAMINE MORE RECENT TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SINCE
THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS DEFINED
AS THE ENTIRE CALENDAR MONTHS OF DEC-JAN-FEB). UNFORTUNATELY...THE
NEWS HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT ENCOURAGING SO FAR THIS WINTER FOR
FURTHER DROUGHT RELIEF...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA HAS
ONLY OBSERVED BETWEEN 25-55 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
DEC 1-FEB 18. PUT ANOTHER WAY...MOST PLACES ARE CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.50 INCHES SHORT OF NORMAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION SINCE DEC. 1ST. ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE
OVERALL-DRY WINTER THUS FAR IS THAT MOST SNOW EVENTS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY LIGHT IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN HAS
BEEN DRY AND POWDERY THANKS TO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AS OPPOSED TO HEAVIER/WET SNOW THAT CONTAINS MORE
LIQUID MOISTURE. AS OF FEB. 20TH...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS ONLY
OBSERVED A FEW SNOW EVENTS OF 2-6 INCH MAGNITUDE...AND ONLY VERY
SMALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE SEEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SINGLE
SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR HIGHER. AS EVIDENCE OF HOW DRY THE LATE FALL
TO MID WINTER TIME FRAME WAS IN MANY PLACES...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT
EXPERIENCED ITS 3RD-DRIEST PERIOD ON RECORD BETWEEN NOV 6TH-JAN 30TH
DATING BACK 119 YEARS. DURING THESE 86 DAYS...GRAND ISLAND ONLY
MEASURED 0.33 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...IN KEEPING RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN
PERSPECTIVE...PLEASE NOTE THAT NO MATTER HOW MUCH OR HOW LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THE WINTER...IT USUALLY ACCOUNTS FOR ONLY
A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL LIQUID MOISTURE. IN OTHER
WORDS...SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS HAVE A MUCH LARGER IMPACT ON ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND DROUGHT TRENDS THAN WINTER SNOWS.

THE SECOND TABLE BELOW HIGHLIGHTS PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
THUS FAR...COVERING DEC 1ST-FEB 18TH (PLEASE NOTE: THESE STATISTICS
DO NOT YET INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/RAIN THAT
FELL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY FEB. 20TH). THE TABLE
INCLUDES DATA FOR 31 LOCATIONS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL
AREA...MOST OF WHICH ARE NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES...ALONG WITH
A FEW PRIMARY AIRPORT SITES:


LOCATION                             PRECIP
NORTH CENTRAL KS      DEC 1-FEB 18    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  % NORMAL
--------                                        --------                ------           ---------             --------
ALTON 2SW                              0.86                 1.89          -1.03                 46
BELOIT                                       0.76                 2.01          -1.25                 38
BURR OAK                                1.01                 1.87           -0.86                54
LOGAN                                       0.47                 1.50           -1.03                31
NATOMA                                     0.78                 2.11           -1.33                37
PHILLIPSBURG                        0.63                 1.60           -0.97               39
PLAINVILLE 4WNW                 1.24                  1.85           -0.61               67
SMITH CENTER                       0.97                  1.52          -0.55                64


  LOCATION                            PRECIP
SOUTH CENTRAL NE      DEC 1-FEB 18    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  % NORMAL
--------                                        --------                ------                    ---------             --------
AURORA 4N                              0.50                 1.95                       -1.45       26
CAMBRIDGE                             0.85                 1.39                       -0.54       61
LEXINGTON 6SSE                   0.49                 1.17                       -0.68       42
CENTRAL CITY                        0.45                  1.99                       -1.54       23
CLAY CENTER 6ESE              0.54                 1.69                       -1.15       32
ELWOOD 8S                             0.73                  1.49                      -0.76       49
FRANKLIN                                 0.65                 1.65                       -1.00       39
GENOA 2W                                0.45                 1.94                       -1.49       23
GENEVA                                     0.31                 1.70                       -1.39       18
GOTHENBURG                        0.60                 1.15                        -0.55       52
GRAND ISLAND ARPT           0.62                  1.55                       -0.93       40
GREELEY                                 0.15                  1.65                       -1.50        9
HASTINGS AIRPORT             0.70                  1.31                       -0.61       54
HEBRON                                  0.43                  2.16                       -1.73       20
HOLDREGE                             0.87                  1.44                      -0.57       60
KEARNEY AIRPORT              0.59                  1.41                       -0.82       42
NELSON                                  0.53                  1.89                       -1.36       28
ORD AIRPORT                       0.20                  1.27                        -1.07       16
OSCEOLA                                0.49                  2.00                       -1.51       25
RAVENNA                                0.54                  1.46                       -0.92       37
ST.PAUL                                   0.59                 1.39                       -0.80       42
SUPERIOR 4E                        0.95                 2.06                       -1.11       46
YORK 3N                                  0.91                2.48                        -1.57       37


CONCLUDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL REVIEW WITH A LOOK AT SOIL
TEMPERATURES...AS OF FEB. 18TH: SOIL TEMPERATURES AT A 4-INCH DEPTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA RANGED FROM 32-34
DEGREES WITHIN MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...AND FROM
34-36 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

LOOKING AHEAD...AND STARTING WITH THE IMMEDIATE WEATHER
SITUATION...MUCH OF THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA IS IN THE PROCESS
OF RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOW AS OF THIS STATEMENT ISSUANCE ON
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20TH. HOWEVER...THIS STORM WAS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA FORECAST TO RECEIVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT
WEEK THROUGH FEB. 26TH...THERE ARE CURRENTLY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT (FEB. 22-23) AND THEN MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT (FEB.
24-25). HOWEVER...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT...THESE UPCOMING SNOW
CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE WILL BE A
TURN TOWARD SEASONABLY COLDER/BELOW NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY
FROM SATURDAY FEB. 22ND AND BEYOND. FROM FEB. 22-26...DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
ANY 40S MOST FAVORED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 10 AND 25 DEGREES. FOR COMPARISON...BASED ON 30-YEAR
NORMALS...HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF FEBRUARY
TYPICALLY AVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE.

LOOKING OUT A BIT FARTHER...THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER VALID FROM FEB 27TH-MARCH 5TH FAVORS
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ALSO
FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOCUSING ON THE
UPCOMING MONTH OF MARCH AS A WHOLE...THE LATEST ONE MONTH CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK DEPICTS EQUAL CHANCES OF HAVING
ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS MEANS
THERE IS NO CLEAR TREND IN THE FORECAST ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT ONE OF
THESE OUTCOMES OVER ANOTHER. NORMAL MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE MID 40S/NEAR
50 EARLY IN THE MONTH TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY MONTHS END.
AVERAGE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES IN MARCH GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
AROUND 20 TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION-WISE...NORMAL MARCH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TYPICALLY RANGES FROM AROUND
1.40 INCHES IN THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...UP TO AROUND 2.10 INCHES
IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 81.

LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE SPRING MONTHS OF MARCH-APRIL-MAY AS A
WHOLE...THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER THREE-MONTH SEASONAL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CALL FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF OBSERVING ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN BOTH THE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENTS. IN OTHER WORDS...LONG
RANGE FORECAST MODELS JUST DO NOT GIVE ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO SUPPORT
ONE OF THESE OUTCOMES OVER ANOTHER. PART OF THIS LACK OF MORE
DEFINITIVE PREDICTABILITY IN SPRING PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
INVOLVES THE FACT THAT LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS THROUGH AT LEAST
SPRING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SUMMER WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED
BY A NEUTRAL ENSO STATE...MEANING THAT THERE IS NO ONGOING EL NINO
OR LA NINA IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...BY THE SUMMER MONTHS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A GRADUAL
CHANGE FROM NEUTRAL ENSO STATE TO EL NINO COULD OCCUR. DESPITE THE
LACK OF PREDICTABILITY REGARDING HOW THE UPCOMING SPRING MIGHT
TURN OUT...30-YEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM MARCH-MAY ACROSS THE
NWS HASTINGS AREA TYPICALLY RANGES FROM 7-10 INCHES...WITH THE
LOWEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183...AND THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81.

TURNING TO THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND VALID THROUGH THE END OF MAY...THERE
IS SOME POSITIVE NEWS TO CONSIDER. ALTHOUGH THIS OUTLOOK CALL FOR
DROUGHT TO CONTINUE TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT THROUGH THE
SPRING...SOME DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED. SHOULD THIS
IMPROVED DROUGHT TENDENCY COME TO FRUITION...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NWS HASTINGS AREA MAY SHAKE LOOSE OF CATEGORY D2
SEVERE DROUGHT DURING THE SPRING SEASON.

THE LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS REFERENCED ABOVE ARE BASED ON THE OUTPUT
FROM NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AS WELL AS FORECASTER EXPERTISE WHICH
TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION ONGOING GLOBAL AND TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC STATES...RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVED DATA AS WELL AS SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE FORECASTS CAN BE
OBTAINED FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/22/2014 - 5/23/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                                                   CATEGORICAL      :
                                                FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :         MINOR    MODERATE    MAJOR
LOCATION                           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :         CS   HS      CS   HS         CS   HS
--------                                        -----       -----           ----- :          ---   ---          ---  ---             ---  ---
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
DEWEESE                               10.0   16.0   17.0 :                  15   14        <5   <5          <5   <5
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
GLADE                                      11.0   16.0   18.0 :                  <5   <5        <5   <5          <5   <5
:BOW CREEK
STOCKTON                                9.0   12.0   13.6 :                  <5   <5       <5   <5           <5   <5
:PLATTE RIVER
COZAD                                          6.5    8.0   10.0 :                   25   32        12   16         <5   <5
KEARNEY                                      6.0    8.0    9.0 :                   19   25         10    8            7   <5
GRAND ISLAND                           6.5    7.0    7.5 :                   18   17        15   15          10    9
:WOOD RIVER
RIVERDALE                              11.0   15.0   20.0 :                    8   14         <5   <5         <5   <5
GIBBON                                     15.0   16.0   16.5 :                     8   16          7   12            6   10
ALDA                                          10.0   11.0   12.2 :                    14   25        11   20           7   12
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
RAVENNA                                     5.0    8.0   10.0 :                    19   25       <5   <5          <5   <5
:MUD CREEK
SWEETWATER                         15.0   18.0   20.0 :                    9   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT MICHAEL                          6.5    9.0   12.0 :                   12   25   <5    5   <5   <5
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL                                 8.0   10.0   12.0 :                   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL                                  5.5   10.0   15.0 :                  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
FULLERTON                                  9.0   17.0   18.0 :                 <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LOUP RIVER
GENOA                                          10.5   12.0   13.0 :                 <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GENOA                                          15.0   17.0   19.0 :                  8    5    6   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
RIVERTON                                     9.0   10.5   13.5 :                   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GUIDE ROCK                               11.0   14.0   16.0 :                 9   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
HARDY                                         11.0   11.5   12.0 :                 <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
WOODSTON                                 12.0   16.0   27.0 :                9   20    7   12   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON
OSBORNE                                    14.0   20.0   27.0 :                13   30    6    9   <5   <5
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
PORTIS                                            15.0   20.0   25.0 :               9   25   <5   14   <5   <5
:SOLOMON RIVER
BELOIT                                            20.0   25.0   30.0 :               <5   32   <5   10   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CAMBRIDGE                                9.0   10.0   16.0 :                    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ORLEANS                                    9.0   11.0   13.0 :                    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
BEAVER CITY                            11.0   13.0   15.0 :                    5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAPPA CREEK
BEAVER CITY                            16.0   18.0   20.0 :                    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STAMFORD                                 19.0   22.0   26.0 :                   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PRAIRIE DOG CREEK
WOODRUFF                                21.0   24.0   30.0 :                   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/22/2014 - 5/23/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
DEWEESE               2.5    2.5    4.0    7.2    9.2   11.3   12.9
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
GLADE                 3.2    3.2    3.3    4.2    7.4    8.4    9.3
:BOW CREEK
STOCKTON              3.4    3.4    3.4    3.5    5.4    6.6    7.6
:PLATTE RIVER
COZAD                 5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    6.5    8.2    8.9
KEARNEY               4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    5.3    8.0    9.1
GRAND ISLAND          4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    5.8    7.4    8.1
:WOOD RIVER
RIVERDALE             2.1    2.1    2.1    3.3    5.3    9.4   11.8
GIBBON                4.1    4.1    4.1    6.5    9.4   13.2   16.7
ALDA                  4.3    4.3    4.3    6.2    7.4   11.1   12.5
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
RAVENNA               2.7    2.8    3.2    3.9    4.5    5.5    5.6
:MUD CREEK
SWEETWATER            5.4    5.4    6.8    9.5   11.8   14.5   16.7
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT MICHAEL         2.5    2.6    3.1    4.0    5.2    6.9    7.6
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL            2.4    2.4    2.7    3.2    4.0    4.5    5.7
:NORTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL            3.1    3.1    3.3    4.0    4.3    4.8    4.9
:CEDAR RIVER
FULLERTON             3.0    3.3    4.0    4.7    5.7    6.6    7.3
:LOUP RIVER
GENOA                 4.8    4.8    5.3    7.1    8.0    9.1    9.9
:BEAVER CREEK
GENOA                 3.7    4.1    6.0    8.0    9.8   12.8   17.4
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
RIVERTON              1.6    1.6    1.6    2.6    4.4    6.5    7.9
GUIDE ROCK            3.1    3.1    4.0    6.6    8.5   10.5   11.8
HARDY                 1.7    1.8    3.3    5.2    6.4    8.2   10.7
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
WOODSTON              3.8    3.8    3.8    4.1    6.3   11.4   17.6
:SOUTH FORK SOLOMON
OSBORNE               3.2    3.2    3.2    4.3    7.1   17.1   20.6
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
PORTIS                3.5    3.5    3.5    4.2    7.3   13.7   16.0
:SOLOMON RIVER
BELOIT                3.0    3.0    3.5    5.5   16.5   21.9   29.0
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CAMBRIDGE             2.2    2.2    2.2    2.8    3.9    5.8    6.5
ORLEANS               1.5    1.5    1.5    2.6    4.5    6.7    7.4
:BEAVER CREEK
BEAVER CITY           3.0    3.0    3.0    3.2    6.2    8.2   11.0
:SAPPA CREEK
BEAVER CITY           2.8    2.8    2.8    2.9    6.2   10.6   12.7
STAMFORD              6.5    6.5    6.5    7.3    9.5   11.3   12.5
:PRAIRIE DOG CREEK
WOODRUFF              0.0    0.0    0.0    3.9    7.5    9.2   11.1

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

...FUTURE OUTLOOKS...

THE NEXT PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO BE ISSUED
THURSDAY MARCH 6TH.

&&

ADDITIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE REGION CAN BE OBTAINED AT:
WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOKS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

FURTHER INFORMATION ON DROUGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE OBTAINED AT:
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

INFORMATION ON MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/FTPREF/DOWNLOADS/WSF/201402WSFWWW.PDF

NATIONAL SNOW ANALYSIS PAGE CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA/

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS
FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.

FOR TRAINING ON NWS PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS (ALL LOWERCASE EXCEPT FOR
"S" AND "E" WHICH NEED TO BE IN CAPS)
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4
                         ^ ^
FOR TRAINING ON NWS RIVER FORECAST GRAPHICS (ALL LOWERCASE EXCEPT
FOR "IB" "EZY" WHICH NEED TO BE IN CAPS)
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSIBYJ8EZY0
                          ^^   ^^^
$$

WESELY/PFANNKUCH



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