Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook

 
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
117 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2010

 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
    AND EASTERN UTAH...

BASED ON CURRENT HYDROLOGIC STATES AND THE 3 TO 4 MONTH LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...THE 2010 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD
POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR MOST OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

IN GENERAL...RUNOFF VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT LATER THIS SPRING AND EARLY
THIS SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 70-90% OF NORMAL OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO. RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90-110% OF NORMAL IN THE
UPPER SAN JUAN RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. APRIL THROUGH JULY
UNREGULATED INFLOW INTO LAKE POWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE 70-75% OF
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES AND THAT IN A
NORMAL YEAR SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS WELL INTO APRIL.
LATE SEASON SNOW AND/OR RAIN STORMS OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE FLOOD THREAT.

CURRENT PRECIPITATION...SNOWPACK...AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ALONG
WITH SPECIFIC RUNOFF VOLUME FORECASTS ARE BELOW:

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE 2010 WATER YEAR HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND THE EASTERN UINTAH MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND THE PLATEAU LANDS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SNOWPACK IN THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND THE
WESTERN TAVAPUTS NEAR 150% OF NORMAL.

BASIN AVERAGED PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2009 TO FEBRUARY 15 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL    83

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                      PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      -------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE                83
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS  75
GUNNISON                   90
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL         95
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS        102
ANIMAS                     93

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                      PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      -------------------------------
DUCHESNE                   68
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          106


BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD OCTOBER 1 2009 TO FEBRUARY 15 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL    81

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                      SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      ---------------------
YAMPA/WHITE                77
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS  72
GUNNISON                   91
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL         102
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS        104
ANIMAS                     94

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                      SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      ---------------------
DUCHESNE                   72
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          134

RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JANUARY 31 2010:
----------------------------------------

 RESERVOIR                 USABLE     EOM USABLE  % OF
                           CAPACITY   CONTENTS   CAPACITY
                           (KAF)      (KAF)
----------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|      490.3|       353.0|     72|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|        9.1|         6.7|     74|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|       96.9|        76.5|     79|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|       66.0|        51.8|     78|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |      254.0|       240.2|     95|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |      146.9|        79.4|     54|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|       43.0|        21.8|     51|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|      102.0|        70.6|     69|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|       32.9|        12.1|     37|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |      106.2|        66.6|     63|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |      829.5|       559.9|     67|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|      117.0|       109.5|     94|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|       17.5|        14.8|     84|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|       18.5|         1.4|      8|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|       83.2|        65.3|     79|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |      381.1|       253.8|     67|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        47.0|     38|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1701.3|      1226.0|     72|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |       39.8|         9.3|     23|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|    24322.0|     13991.3|     58|

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
---------------
THE WEATHER THIS SPRING MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING
EL NINO OR WARM PHASE ENSO. THE CORRELATION BETWEEN EL NINO AND
WEATHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH IS WEAK WITH A SLIGHT
TREND TOWARDS WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. SPRING CAN BRING STORMY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY
THROUGH APRIL INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH WITH EQUAL CHANCES
OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND
FAR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. THE FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

----------------------------------------------------

CBRFC 2010 SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF FEBRUARY 3 2010
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET (KAF).
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

---------------------------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV                 25    68     40   14.4     37
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS                   200    71    270    139    280
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                          255    78    335    184    325
ELKHEAD CK
  ELKHEAD, NR                          30    77     45   18.0     39
  MAYNARD GULCH, BLO                   45    76     68     27     59
FORTIFICATION CK
  FORTIFICATION, NR     (MAR-JUN)     5.5    73    9.4    2.9    7.5
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                         710    72   1010    460    990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                          124    78    172     84    159
  DIXON, NR                           260    79    380    162    330
  LILY, NR                            290    79    440    172    365
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                          230    79    320    154    290
  WATSON, NR                          235    77    335    159    305

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR             170    76    225    124    225
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR            30    59     42     20     51
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                        16.0    80     23   10.0     20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N       75    79     98     55     95
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                          130    78    173     94    167
  GREEN MTN RES                       225    80    300    163    280
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO                 38    63     55     25     60
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                       650    75    940    440    870
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                         240    72    345    160    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                        1050    73   1550    700   1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR               105    74    144     74    141
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                    590    83    805    420    710
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO              1650    76   2400   1110   2160
  CAMEO, NR                          1820    75   2660   1200   2420
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                           100    87    155     55    115

GUNNISON BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                      85    83    119     56    103
  ALMONT                              135    82    195     90    165
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                              155    81    215    105    192
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                        320    82    455    210    390
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                             60    74    115     26     81
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                            105    83    143     73    126
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                       600    83    885    385    720
  MORROW POINT RES                    655    83    960    450    785
  CRYSTAL RES                         735    80   1100    540    915
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR (MAR-JUN)    85    85    141     46    100
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR              87    85    149     45    102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                        260    85    385    166    305
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                          15.0    88     22    9.6   17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                          92    90    129     63    102
  COLONA                              120    86    181     74    139
  DELTA                               100    85    160     65    117
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR                 1290    83   1880    700   1560

DOLORES BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                             250    94    380    152    265
  MCPHEE RES                          305    95    480    179    320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                     120    91    173     79    132
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                           540    88    840    350    615
UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                          3680    79   5400   2200   4650
MILL CK
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT            5.0   100    8.0    2.9    5.0

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                      230   102    320    170    225
  CARRACAS, NR                        420   104    635    260    405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM       57   108     77     41     53
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO         75   109    108     49     69
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                         240   104    380    139    230
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR         210   102    295    144    205
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR           800   102   1180    515    785
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR               60   103     79     44     58
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                             450   102    640    305    440
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                         1260   104   1880    650   1210
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                             26   104     39   16.3     25
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                          1250   102   1870    630   1230
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                           34   103     55   13.4     33
SOUTH CK
  LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV      2.0   145    3.4   1.03   1.38
  (MAR-JUL)

IN EASTERN UTAH...

LAKE POWELL
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT      5800    73   8700   3300   7930

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV     18.0    86     26   11.2     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                           44    85     66     27     52
WF DUCHESNE RIVER
  HANNA, NR                          18.0    75     30   10.8     24
DUCHESNE RIVER
  TABIONA, NR                          76    72    113     47    105
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                       47    84     70     28     56
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                        175    54    390     42    325
GREEN RIVER
  GREEN RIVER, UT                    2070    65   3450    695   3170



FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
-----------------------

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

IN EASTERN UTAH...

FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
HTTP://WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

QUESTIONS CAN BE DIRECTED TO
BRYON LAWRENCE
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
GRAND JUNCTION COLORADO
970 243 7007 EXT 243
BRYON.LAWRENCE@NOAA.GOV

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

BAL


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