Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 PM MST FRI MAR 5 2010

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
    AND EASTERN UTAH...

THE 2010 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO 
BE LOW FOR MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. PEAK SPRING 
FLOWS DUE TO SNOWMELT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF 
THIS AREA.

IN GENERAL...RUNOFF VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT LATER THIS SPRING AND EARLY
THIS SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 70-90% OF NORMAL OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO. RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90-110% OF NORMAL IN THE
UPPER SAN JUAN RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. APRIL THROUGH JULY
UNREGULATED INFLOW INTO LAKE POWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE 65-70% OF
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IN A NORMAL YEAR SNOW ACCUMULATES IN 
THE MOUNTAINS WELL INTO APRIL. LATE SEASON SNOW AND/OR RAIN STORMS 
OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME 
AND PEAK FLOWS POTENTIALLY INCREASING FLOOD THREAT.

CURRENT PRECIPITATION...SNOWPACK...AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ALONG
WITH SPECIFIC RUNOFF VOLUME FORECASTS ARE BELOW:

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE 2010 WATER YEAR CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND THE EASTERN UINTAH MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND THE PLATEAU LANDS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SNOWPACK IN THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND THE
WESTERN TAVAPUTS OVER 130% OF NORMAL.

BASIN AVERAGED PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2009 TO MARCH 5 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL    82

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                      PRECIPITATION      AVERAGE
                           PERCENT NORMAL     DEPARTURE(IN)
-----                      --------------     -------------
YAMPA/WHITE                80                 -4.1
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS  77                 -3.4
GUNNISON                   93                 -1.3
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL         92                 -1.3
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS        102                +0.3
ANIMAS                     93                 -1.3

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                      PRECIPITATION      AVERAGE
                           PERCENT NORMAL     DEPARTURE(IN)
-----                      -------------      -------------
DUCHESNE                   66                 -4.9
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          108                +1.3


BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD OCTOBER 1 2009 TO MARCH 5 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL    81

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                      SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      ---------------------
YAMPA/WHITE                75
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS  76
GUNNISON                   94
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL         101
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS        104
ANIMAS                     95

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                      SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      ---------------------
DUCHESNE                   69
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          137

RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 28 2010:
----------------------------------------

 RESERVOIR                 USABLE     EOM USABLE  % OF
                           CAPACITY   CONTENTS   CAPACITY
                           (KAF)      (KAF)
----------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|      490.3|       329.3|     67|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|        9.1|         7.1|     77|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|       96.9|        75.3|     78|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|       66.0|        51.6|     78|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |      254.0|       240.9|     95|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |      146.9|        78.0|     53|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|       43.0|        21.8|     51|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|      102.0|        68.4|     67|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|       32.9|        12.6|     38|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |      106.2|        64.5|     61|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |      829.5|       545.5|     66|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|      117.0|       106.8|     91|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|       17.5|        16.6|     94|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|       18.5|         1.1|      6|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|       83.2|        65.6|     79|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |      381.1|       252.5|     66|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        46.5|     37|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1701.3|      1214.3|     71|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |       39.8|         9.3|     23|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|    24322.0|     13780.2|     57|

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
---------------
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM 
MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. 
THE MARCH THROUGH APRIL OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN.

----------------------------------------------------

CBRFC 2010 SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF MARCH 3 2010
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET (KAF).
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

---------------------------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV                 21    57     34   11.7     37
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS                   192    69    265    132    280
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                          260    80    340    190    325
ELKHEAD CK
  ELKHEAD, NR                          29    74     44   17.0     39
  MAYNARD GULCH, BLO                   43    73     65     26     59
FORTIFICATION CK
  FORTIFICATION, NR (MAR-JUN)         5.3    71    9.2    2.7    7.5
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                         695    70    975    460    990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                          120    75    166     81    159
  DIXON, NR                           240    73    365    142    330
  LILY, NR                            265    73    410    150    365
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                          215    74    300    145    290
  WATSON, NR                          225    74    315    153    305

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR             170    76    220    126    225
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR            28    55     40   18.8     51
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                        16.0    80     21   11.0     20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N       75    79     97     56     95
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                          130    78    167     99    167
  GREEN MTN RES                       220    79    285    164    280
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO                 35    58     49     24     60
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                       640    74    900    480    870
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                         240    72    330    169    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                        1030    72   1500    775   1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR               110    78    148     79    141
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                    600    85    785    445    710
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO              1650    76   2270   1220   2160
  CAMEO, NR                          1820    75   2530   1300   2420
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                            95    83    145     58    115

GUNNISON BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                      85    83    115     65    103
  ALMONT                              135    82    185    105    165
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                              155    81    205    120    192
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                        315    81    435    240    390
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                             57    70     95     30     81
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                            105    83    140     75    126
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                       570    79    795    420    720
  MORROW POINT RES                    620    79    875    480    785
  CRYSTAL RES                         695    76    995    545    915
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR (MAR-JUN)    85    85    120     55    100
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR              87    85    133     57    102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                        250    82    355    180    305
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                          15.0    88     20    9.0   17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                          88    86    123     63    102
  COLONA                              120    86    180     77    139
  DELTA                               100    85    155     65    117
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR                 1250    80   1770    780   1560

DOLORES BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                             225    85    315    150    265
  MCPHEE RES                          275    86    400    175    320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                     115    87    155     80    132
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                           525    85    765    340    615

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                          3650    78   5000   2400   4650
MILL CK
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT            5.9   118    8.7    3.8    5.0

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                      215    96    280    150    225
  CARRACAS, NR                        400    99    550    290    405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM       56   106     70     40     53
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO         73   106     95     55     69
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                         225    98    320    155    230
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR         200    98    260    140    205
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR           765    97   1060    520    785
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR               55    95     72     41     58
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                             420    95    560    300    440
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                         1160    96   1620    810   1210
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                             25   100     32   16.4     25
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                          1150    93   1600    690   1230
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                           33   100     45     20     33
SOUTH CK
  LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV     1.80   130    3.2   0.87   1.38
                   (MAR-JUL)

IN EASERTERN UTAH...

LAKE POWELL
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT      5400    68   8200

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
                                       MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                     ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV     17.0    81     25   10.5     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                           41    79     62     24     52
WF DUCHESNE RIVER
  HANNA, NR                          16.0    67     24   10.6     24
DUCHESNE RIVER
  TABIONA, NR                          65    62     98     39    105
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                       41    73     63     24     56
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                        115    35    260     29    325
GREEN RIVER
  GREEN RIVER, UT                    1730    55   2780    930   3170


FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
-----------------------

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

IN EASTERN UTAH...

FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
HTTP://WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

QUESTIONS CAN BE DIRECTED TO
BRYON LAWRENCE
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
GRAND JUNCTION COLORADO
970 243 7007 EXT 493
BRYON.LAWRENCE@NOAA.GOV

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

BAL






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