Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook

ESFGJT

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 PM MDT FRI MAY 7 2010

 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THE 2010 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
BE LOW FOR MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. PEAK
SPRING FLOWS DUE TO SNOWMELT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA.

IN GENERAL...RUNOFF VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS SPRING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 69-76% OF NORMAL IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN...THE WHITE
RIVER BASIN...THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE GRAND JUNCTION...
THE GUNNISON RIVER BASIN...AND THE SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN. IN THE
DOLORES RIVER BASIN RUNOFF VOLUME IS EXPECTED TO BE 65-70% OF NORMAL
WHILE IN THE GREEN RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN UTAH RUNOFF VOLUME WILL
LIKELY BE 60-65% OF NORMAL. UNREGULATED INFLOW INTO LAKE POWELL IS
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 60-65% OF NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT LATE SEASON SNOW AND/OR RAIN STORMS OR
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND
PEAK FLOWS POTENTIALLY INCREASING FLOOD THREAT.

CURRENT PRECIPITATION...SNOWPACK...AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ALONG WITH
SPECIFIC RUNOFF VOLUME FORECASTS ARE BELOW:

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
APRIL STORMS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WHILE THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN UTAH SAW DRIER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
FOR THE 2010 WATER YEAR IS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER BASIN...
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN...AND UPPER SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN...110-130% OF
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...90-90% OF NORMAL IN THE
WHITE RIVER BASIN...THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER BASIN...AND THE ANIMAS RIVER
BASIN...AND 70-89% OF NORMAL IN THE GREEN RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE GLENWOOD SPRINGS.

BASIN AVERAGED PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2009 TO MAY 7 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL    87

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                      PRECIPITATION      AVERAGE
                           PERCENT NORMAL     DEPARTURE(IN)
-----                      --------------     -------------
YAMPA/WHITE                91                 -2.6
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS  87                 -2.9
GUNNISON                   95                 -1.1
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL         90                 -2.3
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS        93                 -2.0
ANIMAS                     87                 -3.7

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                      PRECIPITATION      AVERAGE
                           PERCENT NORMAL     DEPARTURE(IN)
-----                      -------------      -------------
DUCHESNE                   76                 -5.4
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          106                +1.2

BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD OCTOBER 1 2009 TO MAY 7 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL    75

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                      SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      ---------------------
YAMPA/WHITE                86
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS  82
GUNNISON                   78
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL         56
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS        80
ANIMAS                     63

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                      SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
-----                      ---------------------
DUCHESNE                   70
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          67

RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF APRIL 30 2010:
----------------------------------------


 RESERVOIR                 USABLE     EOM USABLE  % OF
                           CAPACITY   CONTENTS   CAPACITY
                           (KAF)      (KAF)
----------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|      490.3|       295.2|     60|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|        9.1|         7.8|     86|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|       96.9|        79.5|     82|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|       66.0|        56.6|     86|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |      254.0|       242.7|     96|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |      146.9|        84.8|     58|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|       43.0|        21.9|     51|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|      102.0|        71.1|     70|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|       32.9|        19.8|     60|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |      106.2|        67.4|     63|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |      829.5|       587.6|     71|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|      117.0|       109.0|     93|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|       17.5|        16.4|     93|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|       18.5|         1.0|      6|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|       83.2|        69.3|     83|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |      381.1|       325.2|     85|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        64.6|     51|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1701.3|      1383.7|     81|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |       39.8|        14.2|     36|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|    24322.0|     13816.3|     57|

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
FROM MAY THROUGH JULY INDICATES A 40% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COLORADO. THE MAY THROUGH JULY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
----------------------------------------------------

CBRFC 2010 SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF MAY 1 2010
FOR THE PERIOD MAY TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET (KAF).
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
----------------------------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            13.0    46     23    2.8     28
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS                140    58    189     98    240
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                       245    88    320    179    280
ELKHEAD CK
  ELKHEAD, NR                       25    76     37   15.2     33
  MAYNARD GULCH, BLO                37    77     56     22     48
FORTIFICATION CK
  FORTIFICATION, NR (MAY-JUN)      3.3    82    5.1    2.0    4.0
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                      560    67    750    395    835
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                       125    88    164     91    142
  DIXON, NR                        245    86    350    160    285
  LILY, NR                         260    84    380    162    310
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                       180    69    240    130    260
  WATSON, NR                       186    69    250    135    270

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         165    77    205    129    215
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR        30    64     43   19.6     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                    16.5    85     20   14.0   19.3
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N   67    75     83     53     89
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      112    71    136     91    158
  GREEN MTN RES                   191    72    230    155    265
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO             30    58     42     20     52
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   570    71    730    480    805
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     230    73    285    183    315
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     950    71   1210    800   1330
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           100    75    133     78    134
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                515    77    625    420    665
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO          1490    74   1800   1200   2000
  CAMEO, NR                      1600    72   2000   1300   2220
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                        60    62     90     40     97

GUNNISON BASIN
                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                  70    74     92     52     95
  ALMONT                          110    73    135     95    151
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          130    73    152    110    178
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    255    72    330    189    355
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                         44    65     71     25     68
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        100    84    120     82    119
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   465    72    575    365    645
  MORROW POINT RES                495    71    605    435    700
  CRYSTAL RES                     550    67    680    485    815
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR          51    68     76     32     75
                  (MAY-JUN)
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR          55    67     83     34     82
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    190    73    245    145    260
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                      11.0    74   14.6    8.0   14.9
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                      73    79     93     56     92
  COLONA                          100    81    137     70    123
  DELTA                            80    81    120     63     99
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              930    69   1210    710   1340

DOLORES BASIN
                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         150    68    193    114    220
  MCPHEE RES                      160    62    193    103    260
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                  88    75    111     68    117
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       310    66    385    260    470

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVE
  CISCO, NR                      2800    69   3700   2300   4080
MILL CK
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT        4.4   102    6.1    3.0    4.3

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  160    83    187    138    192
  CARRACAS, NR                    270    83    360    193    325
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM   42    93     54     32     45
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO     49    84     65     36     58
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     135    78    176    101    172
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     140    76    171    113    184
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       460    75    605    325    615
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR           38    72     52     27     53
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         290    74    355    235    390
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      690    70    820    590    985
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                       15.0    71   19.5   11.2     21
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       650    67    815    465    975
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                     19.0    66     27   13.0     29
SOUTH CK
  LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV 1.61   117    2.3   1.12   1.38
                       (MAR-JUL)
IN EASTERN UTAH...

LAKE POWELL
                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT  4270    62   5600   2900   6940


                                   MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                 ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV 16.9    80     22   12.7     21
                     (APR-JUL)
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                       41    79     52     31     52
                     (APR-JUL)
WF DUCHESNE RIVER
  HANNA, NR                      16.4    68     22   11.3     24
                     (APR-JUL)
DUCHESNE RIVER
  TABIONA, NR                      68    65     95     46    105
                     (APR-JUL)
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                   40    71     53     29     56
                     (APR-JUL)
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    133    41    240     60    325
                     (APR-JUL)
GREEN RIVER
  GREEN RIVER, UT                1910    60   2590   1350   3170
                     (APR-JUL)

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
-----------------------

IN WESTERN COLORADO...

FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

IN EASTERN UTAH...

FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
HTTP://WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

QUESTIONS CAN BE DIRECTED TO
BRYON LAWRENCE
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
GRAND JUNCTION COLORADO
970 243 7007 EXT 493
BRYON.LAWRENCE@NOAA.GOV

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$





Return to News Archive

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.