Water Supply Outlook for Western Colorado and Eastern Utah

ESFGJT

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1115 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011

 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
    AND EASTERN UTAH...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH COVERING ALL
OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER COLORADO...DUCHESNE...
GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS.

...WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS INDICATE A MUCH ABOVE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
RUNOFF FOR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH...

THE CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2011 RUNOFF
PERIOD ARE MUCH ABOVE TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE DUCHESNE...YAMPA/WHITE
AND UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM BASINS. ABOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
GUNNISON BASIN AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE DOLORES AND SAN JUAN
BASINS.

BASED ON CURRENT HYDROLOGIC STATES FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT
IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AT THIS TIME FOR THE YAMPA/WHITE...DUCHESNE...
UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM AND GUNNISON BASINS AND NOT HIGH FOR THE
DOLORES AND SAN JUAN BASINS.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES. SPRING
TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK
CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW MELT SEASON CAN
AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW AVERAGE FOR JANUARY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH AND MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN BASINS.

THE 2011 WATER YEAR SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION
RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2010 TO FEBRUARY 17 2011:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER      TOTAL
                        EQUIVALENT      PRECIP
-----                   ----------      ------
YAMPA/WHITE                123           127
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       132           132
ROARING FORK               124           121
GUNNISON                   120           119
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          96           103
SAN JUAN                    91            95
ANIMAS                     103           106

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER      TOTAL
                        EQUIVALENT      PRECIP
-----                   ----------      ------
GREEN                      114           117
DUCHESNE                   143           153
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          121           120


RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JANUARY 31 2010:
----------------------------------------

 RESERVOIR                 USABLE     EOM USABLE  % OF
                           CAPACITY   CONTENTS   CAPACITY
                           (KAF)      (KAF)
----------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|      490.3|       401.4|     82
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|        9.1|         9.0|     98
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|       96.9|        80.7|     83
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|       66.0|        53.1|     80
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |      254.0|       220.9|     87
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |      146.9|        77.0|     52
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|       43.0|        37.4|     87
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|      102.0|        72.0|     71
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|       32.9|        12.6|     38
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |      106.2|        74.3|     70
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |      829.5|       554.0|     67
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|      117.0|       112.0|     96
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|       17.5|        15.8|     90
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|       18.5|         0.7|      4
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|       83.2|        67.4|     81
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |      381.1|       273.1|     72
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        69.8|     56
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1701.3|      1342.5|     79
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |       39.8|        14.2|     36
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|    24322.0|     13828.0|     57


----------------------------------------------------

SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2011
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
--------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     40   108     60     25     37
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    335   120    425    255    280
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    420   129    525    330    325
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL     95   134    144     56     71
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL   1280   129   1760    875    990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    190   119    250    140    159
  DIXON, NR                       APR-JUL    400   121    545    275    330
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    435   119    650    260    365
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    330   114    445    235    290
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    345   113    465    250    305

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    280   124    370    205    225
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     65   127     92     42     51
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL     23   115     29   17.3     20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL    110   116    149     77     95
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    205   123    280    142    167
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    340   121    465    235    280
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO            APR-JUL     76   127    109     49     60
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL   1080   124   1450    800    870
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    380   113    530    255    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   1730   120   2350   1250   1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    160   113    215    112    141
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    830   117   1100    595    710
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   2560   119   3500   1900   2160
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   2910   120   3950   2070   2420
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL    160   139    230    100    115

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL    115   112    158     79    103
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    190   115    260    150    165
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    220   115    290    159    192
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    445   114    600    310    390
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     75    93    138     35     81
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    124    98    166     88    126
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    775   108   1100    540    720
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    845   108   1170    600    785
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL    950   104   1290    660    915
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN    126   126    187     77    100
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL    129   126    197     75    102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    370   121    505    255    305
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL     21   123     30   14.2   17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL    100    98    142     66    102
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    130    94    205     72    139
  DELTA                           APR-JUL    120   103    185     65    117
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1700   109   2450   1090   1560

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    230    87    355    138    265
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    290    91    435    173    320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    120    91    173     79    132
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    575    93    890    330    615

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   5370   115   7500   3550   4650
MILL CK
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT        APR-JUL    5.0   100    8.0    2.9    5.0

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    200    89    290    130    225
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    370    91    570    225    405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     50    94     69     35     53
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     64    93     94     41     69
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    200    87    325    111    230
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    190    93    260    132    205
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    700    89    990    390    785
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     55    95     77     36     58
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    440   100    595    310    440
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL   1140    94   1570    630   1210
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL     24    96     36   14.9     25
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL   1130    92   1550    650   1230
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL     32    97     53   11.4     33
SOUTH CK
  LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV  MAR-JUL    2.0   145    3.4   1.03   1.38

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL     25   119     35   17.0     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     60   115     85     39     52
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     75   134    104     51     56
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    565   174    890    330    325


LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   9000   113  12800   5700   7930


MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.


CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------
THIS SPRING WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING LA NINA. THERE
IS A WEAK CORRELATION BETWEEN LA NINA AND WEATHER OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THERE IS A WEAK TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WETTER
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH
APRIL INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE LATE SPRING
AND EARLY SUMMER.


IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS


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