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RSS FeedsWater Supply Outlook for Western Colorado and Eastern Utah
ESFGJT
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1115 AM MST THU FEB 17 2011
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH COVERING ALL
OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER COLORADO...DUCHESNE...
GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS.
...WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS INDICATE A MUCH ABOVE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
RUNOFF FOR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH...
THE CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2011 RUNOFF
PERIOD ARE MUCH ABOVE TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE DUCHESNE...YAMPA/WHITE
AND UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM BASINS. ABOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
GUNNISON BASIN AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE DOLORES AND SAN JUAN
BASINS.
BASED ON CURRENT HYDROLOGIC STATES FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT
IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AT THIS TIME FOR THE YAMPA/WHITE...DUCHESNE...
UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM AND GUNNISON BASINS AND NOT HIGH FOR THE
DOLORES AND SAN JUAN BASINS.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES. SPRING
TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK
CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW MELT SEASON CAN
AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW AVERAGE FOR JANUARY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH AND MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN BASINS.
THE 2011 WATER YEAR SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION
RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2010 TO FEBRUARY 17 2011:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
BASIN SNOW WATER TOTAL
EQUIVALENT PRECIP
----- ---------- ------
YAMPA/WHITE 123 127
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS 132 132
ROARING FORK 124 121
GUNNISON 120 119
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 96 103
SAN JUAN 91 95
ANIMAS 103 106
IN EASTERN UTAH...
BASIN SNOW WATER TOTAL
EQUIVALENT PRECIP
----- ---------- ------
GREEN 114 117
DUCHESNE 143 153
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 121 120
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JANUARY 31 2010:
----------------------------------------
RESERVOIR USABLE EOM USABLE % OF
CAPACITY CONTENTS CAPACITY
(KAF) (KAF)
----------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO - LAKE GRANB| 490.3| 401.4| 82
WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK| 9.1| 9.0| 98
WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI| 96.9| 80.7| 83
MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO| 66.0| 53.1| 80
BLUE - DILLON RES | 254.0| 220.9| 87
BLUE - GREEN MTN RES | 146.9| 77.0| 52
HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST| 43.0| 37.4| 87
FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 102.0| 72.0| 71
PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES| 32.9| 12.6| 38
TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 106.2| 74.3| 70
GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 829.5| 554.0| 67
GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 117.0| 112.0| 96
GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 17.5| 15.8| 90
MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 18.5| 0.7| 4
UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 83.2| 67.4| 81
DOLORES - MCPHEE RES | 381.1| 273.1| 72
LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 125.4| 69.8| 56
SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES| 1701.3| 1342.5| 79
FLORIDA - LEMON RES, | 39.8| 14.2| 36
COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 24322.0| 13828.0| 57
----------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2011
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
--------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
YAMPA RIVER
STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV APR-JUL 40 108 60 25 37
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS APR-JUL 335 120 425 255 280
ELK RIVER
MILNER, NR APR-JUL 420 129 525 330 325
ELKHEAD CK
LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR APR-JUL 95 134 144 56 71
YAMPA RIVER
MAYBELL, NR APR-JUL 1280 129 1760 875 990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
SLATER, NR APR-JUL 190 119 250 140 159
DIXON, NR APR-JUL 400 121 545 275 330
LILY, NR APR-JUL 435 119 650 260 365
WHITE RIVER
MEEKER, NR APR-JUL 330 114 445 235 290
WATSON, NR APR-JUL 345 113 465 250 305
UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 280 124 370 205 225
WILLOW CK
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 65 127 92 42 51
FRASER RIVER
WINTER PARK APR-JUL 23 115 29 17.3 20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N APR-JUL 110 116 149 77 95
BLUE RIVER
DILLON RES APR-JUL 205 123 280 142 167
GREEN MTN RES APR-JUL 340 121 465 235 280
MUDDY CK
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO APR-JUL 76 127 109 49 60
COLORADO RIVER
KREMMLING, NR APR-JUL 1080 124 1450 800 870
EAGLE RIVER
GYPSUM, BLO APR-JUL 380 113 530 255 335
COLORADO RIVER
DOTSERO, NR APR-JUL 1730 120 2350 1250 1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR APR-JUL 160 113 215 112 141
ROARING FORK RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS APR-JUL 830 117 1100 595 710
COLORADO RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO APR-JUL 2560 119 3500 1900 2160
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 2910 120 3950 2070 2420
PLATEAU CK
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 160 139 230 100 115
GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
TAYLOR RIVER
TAYLOR PARK RES APR-JUL 115 112 158 79 103
ALMONT APR-JUL 190 115 260 150 165
EAST RIVER
ALMONT APR-JUL 220 115 290 159 192
GUNNISON RIVER
GUNNISON, NR APR-JUL 445 114 600 310 390
TOMICHI CK
GUNNISON APR-JUL 75 93 138 35 81
LAKE FORK RIVER
GATEVIEW APR-JUL 124 98 166 88 126
GUNNISON RIVER
BLUE MESA RES APR-JUL 775 108 1100 540 720
MORROW POINT RES APR-JUL 845 108 1170 600 785
CRYSTAL RES APR-JUL 950 104 1290 660 915
MUDDY CK
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR MAR-JUN 126 126 187 77 100
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR APR-JUL 129 126 197 75 102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
SOMERSET, NR APR-JUL 370 121 505 255 305
SURFACE CK
CEDAREDGE APR-JUL 21 123 30 14.2 17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
RIDGWAY RES APR-JUL 100 98 142 66 102
COLONA APR-JUL 130 94 205 72 139
DELTA APR-JUL 120 103 185 65 117
GUNNISON RIVER
GRAND JUNCTION, NR APR-JUL 1700 109 2450 1090 1560
DOLORES BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
DOLORES RIVER
DOLORES APR-JUL 230 87 355 138 265
MCPHEE RES APR-JUL 290 91 435 173 320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
PLACERVILLE, NR APR-JUL 120 91 173 79 132
DOLORES RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 575 93 890 330 615
UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 5370 115 7500 3550 4650
MILL CK
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT APR-JUL 5.0 100 8.0 2.9 5.0
SAN JUAN BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS APR-JUL 200 89 290 130 225
CARRACAS, NR APR-JUL 370 91 570 225 405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM APR-JUL 50 94 69 35 53
NAVAJO RIVER
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO APR-JUL 64 93 94 41 69
PIEDRA RIVER
ARBOLES, NR APR-JUL 200 87 325 111 230
LOS PINOS RIVER
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR APR-JUL 190 93 260 132 205
SAN JUAN RIVER
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR APR-JUL 700 89 990 390 785
FLORIDA RIVER
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR APR-JUL 55 95 77 36 58
ANIMAS RIVER
DURANGO APR-JUL 440 100 595 310 440
SAN JUAN RIVER
FARMINGTON APR-JUL 1140 94 1570 630 1210
LA PLATA RIVER
HESPERUS APR-JUL 24 96 36 14.9 25
SAN JUAN RIVER
BLUFF, NR APR-JUL 1130 92 1550 650 1230
MANCOS RIVER
MANCOS, NR APR-JUL 32 97 53 11.4 33
SOUTH CK
LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV MAR-JUL 2.0 145 3.4 1.03 1.38
EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
BIG BRUSH CK
VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV APR-JUL 25 119 35 17.0 21
ASHLEY CK
VERNAL, NR APR-JUL 60 115 85 39 52
WHITEROCKS RIVER
WHITEROCKS, NR APR-JUL 75 134 104 51 56
DUCHESNE RIVER
RANDLETT, NR APR-JUL 565 174 890 330 325
LAKE POWELL
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT APR-JUL 9000 113 12800 5700 7930
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------
THIS SPRING WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING LA NINA. THERE
IS A WEAK CORRELATION BETWEEN LA NINA AND WEATHER OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THERE IS A WEAK TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WETTER
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH
APRIL INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE LATE SPRING
AND EARLY SUMMER.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.
CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI
DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.
$$
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