Water Supply Outlook for Western Colorado and Eastern Utah

ESFGJT
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1110 AM MDT THU APR 7 2011

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 4...

THIS 2011 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SPRING RUNOFF IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH...

BASED ON CURRENT HYDROLOGIC STATES FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL AT THIS TIME FOR THE
YAMPA/WHITE...DUCHESNE...GREEN...UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM BASINS.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN AND NOT
HIGH FOR THE DOLORES AND SAN JUAN BASINS.

SPRING RUNOFF FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA
RIVER BASIN INCLUDING NEAR DEERLODGE PARK. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF FLOODING ALONG THE GREEN RIVER NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF
JENSEN.

THE CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2011 RUNOFF
PERIOD ARE MUCH ABOVE TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE DUCHESNE...GREEN...
YAMPA/WHITE ...UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM AND GUNNISON BASINS. NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE DOLORES AND SAN JUAN BASINS. MANY FORECAST
RUNOFF VOLUMES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO ARE IN THE TOP 5 PERCENT OF HISTORICAL VOLUMES OBSERVED
SINCE 1970.

HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW
MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES.
SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
APRIL. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE 2011 SPRING RUNOFF.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY AND MARCH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AND THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH.

THE 2011 WATER YEAR SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION
RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL AVERAGE IN
THE NORTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. MANY SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 PERCENT OF HISTORICAL RECORDS
WITH SOME AT RECORD LEVEL SNOW PACK.

BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2010 TO APRIL 7 2011:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER      TOTAL
                        EQUIVALENT      PRECIP
-----                   ----------      ------
YAMPA/WHITE                131           129
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       134           133
ROARING FORK               120           119
GUNNISON                   112           114
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          78            93
SAN JUAN                    79            89
ANIMAS                      81            96

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER      TOTAL
                        EQUIVALENT      PRECIP
-----                   ----------      ------
GREEN                      118           118
DUCHESNE                   136           137
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           89           108


RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MARCH 31 2010:
----------------------------------------

 RESERVOIR                 USABLE     EOM USABLE  % OF
                           CAPACITY   CONTENTS   CAPACITY
---------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|      490.3|       344.5|     70
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|        9.1|         7.2|     79
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|       96.9|        79.5|     82
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|       66.0|        55.4|     84
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |      254.0|       221.8|     87
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |      146.9|        66.0|     45
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|       43.0|        23.0|     53
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|      102.0|        64.8|     64
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|       32.9|        14.1|     43
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |      106.2|        72.9|     69
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |      829.5|       495.0|     60
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|      117.0|       112.5|     96
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|       17.5|        16.6|     95
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|       18.5|         0.9|      5
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|       83.2|        64.0|     77
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |      381.1|       280.5|     74
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        76.8|     61
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1701.3|      1326.1|     78
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |       39.8|        14.7|     37
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|    24322.0|     12803.9|     53

----------------------------------------------------

SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF APRIL 1 2011
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
--------------------

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     50   135     65     33     37
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    415   148    510    330    280
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    500   154    605    420    325
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL    115   162    152     83     71
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL   1550   157   1990   1160    990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    235   148    290    184    159
  DIXON, NR                       APR-JUL    515   156    630    375    330
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    580   159    800    395    365
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    370   128    465    285    290
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    395   130    490    300    305

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    340   151    425    265    225
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     75   147    102     55     51
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL     26   130     31     21     20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL    130   137    160    103     95
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    225   135    280    176    167
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    380   136    475    295    280
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO            APR-JUL     90   150    120     64     60
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL   1280   147   1580   1010    870
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    420   125    530    320    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   2020   140   2570   1600   1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    170   121    205    136    141
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    850   120   1030    690    710
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   2860   132   3550   2350   2160
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   3240   134   4020   2600   2420
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL    150   130    200    100    115

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL    125   121    153    100    103
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    200   121    240    160    165
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    230   120    275    188    192
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    480   123    595    380    390
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     80    99    125     48     81
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    121    96    151     94    126
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    800   111    985    635    720
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    875   111   1040    675    785
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL    985   108   1150    740    915
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN    131   131    168     99    100
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUN    126   133    163     96     95
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL    133   130    176     96    102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    380   125    455    310    305
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL     22   129     29   16.5   17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL     95    93    125     69    102
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    130    94    183     86    139
  DELTA                           APR-JUL     97    83    147     67    117
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1700   109   2100   1280   1560

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    187    71    260    130    265
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    225    70    305    158    320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    110    83    149     70    132
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    420    68    515    300    615

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   5500   118   7000   4300   4650
MILL CK
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT        APR-JUL    4.8    96    7.0    3.1    5.0

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    183    81    225    139    225
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    310    77    400    225    405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     43    81     57     31     53
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     55    80     74     39     69
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    170    74    230    121    230
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    160    78    205    122    205
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    550    70    725    395    785
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     42    72     55     31     58
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    375    85    470    290    440
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL    860    71   1090    580   1210
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   18.0    72     25   12.6     25
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL    850    69   1120    550   1230
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL     24    73     38   11.2     33
SOUTH CK
  LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV  MAR-JUL   0.78    57   1.60   0.30   1.38
  LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV  APR-JUL   0.71    53   1.48   0.27   1.34

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL     23   110     32   15.3     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     55   106     80     35     52
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     70   125     96     48     56
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    625   192    900    385    325

LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   9500   120  12300   7200   7930

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.


CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------
THIS SPRING WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING LA NINA. THERE
IS A WEAK CORRELATION BETWEEN LA NINA AND WEATHER OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THERE IS A WEAK TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WETTER
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MARCH THROUGH
MAY INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY SUMMER.


IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS EARLY IN THE SNOW RUNOFF
SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS


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