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RSS FeedsWater Supply Outlook for Western Colorado and Eastern Utah
ESFGJT
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1110 AM MDT THU APR 7 2011
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 4...
THIS 2011 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SPRING RUNOFF IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH...
BASED ON CURRENT HYDROLOGIC STATES FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL AT THIS TIME FOR THE
YAMPA/WHITE...DUCHESNE...GREEN...UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM BASINS.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN AND NOT
HIGH FOR THE DOLORES AND SAN JUAN BASINS.
SPRING RUNOFF FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA
RIVER BASIN INCLUDING NEAR DEERLODGE PARK. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF FLOODING ALONG THE GREEN RIVER NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF
JENSEN.
THE CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2011 RUNOFF
PERIOD ARE MUCH ABOVE TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE DUCHESNE...GREEN...
YAMPA/WHITE ...UPPER COLORADO MAINSTEM AND GUNNISON BASINS. NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE DOLORES AND SAN JUAN BASINS. MANY FORECAST
RUNOFF VOLUMES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO ARE IN THE TOP 5 PERCENT OF HISTORICAL VOLUMES OBSERVED
SINCE 1970.
HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW
MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES.
SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
APRIL. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE 2011 SPRING RUNOFF.
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY AND MARCH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AND THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH.
THE 2011 WATER YEAR SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION
RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS AROUND 130 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL AVERAGE IN
THE NORTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. MANY SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 PERCENT OF HISTORICAL RECORDS
WITH SOME AT RECORD LEVEL SNOW PACK.
BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2010 TO APRIL 7 2011:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
BASIN SNOW WATER TOTAL
EQUIVALENT PRECIP
----- ---------- ------
YAMPA/WHITE 131 129
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS 134 133
ROARING FORK 120 119
GUNNISON 112 114
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 78 93
SAN JUAN 79 89
ANIMAS 81 96
IN EASTERN UTAH...
BASIN SNOW WATER TOTAL
EQUIVALENT PRECIP
----- ---------- ------
GREEN 118 118
DUCHESNE 136 137
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 89 108
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MARCH 31 2010:
----------------------------------------
RESERVOIR USABLE EOM USABLE % OF
CAPACITY CONTENTS CAPACITY
---------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO - LAKE GRANB| 490.3| 344.5| 70
WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK| 9.1| 7.2| 79
WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI| 96.9| 79.5| 82
MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO| 66.0| 55.4| 84
BLUE - DILLON RES | 254.0| 221.8| 87
BLUE - GREEN MTN RES | 146.9| 66.0| 45
HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST| 43.0| 23.0| 53
FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 102.0| 64.8| 64
PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES| 32.9| 14.1| 43
TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 106.2| 72.9| 69
GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 829.5| 495.0| 60
GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 117.0| 112.5| 96
GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 17.5| 16.6| 95
MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 18.5| 0.9| 5
UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 83.2| 64.0| 77
DOLORES - MCPHEE RES | 381.1| 280.5| 74
LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 125.4| 76.8| 61
SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES| 1701.3| 1326.1| 78
FLORIDA - LEMON RES, | 39.8| 14.7| 37
COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 24322.0| 12803.9| 53
----------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF APRIL 1 2011
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
--------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
YAMPA RIVER
STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV APR-JUL 50 135 65 33 37
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS APR-JUL 415 148 510 330 280
ELK RIVER
MILNER, NR APR-JUL 500 154 605 420 325
ELKHEAD CK
LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR APR-JUL 115 162 152 83 71
YAMPA RIVER
MAYBELL, NR APR-JUL 1550 157 1990 1160 990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
SLATER, NR APR-JUL 235 148 290 184 159
DIXON, NR APR-JUL 515 156 630 375 330
LILY, NR APR-JUL 580 159 800 395 365
WHITE RIVER
MEEKER, NR APR-JUL 370 128 465 285 290
WATSON, NR APR-JUL 395 130 490 300 305
UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 340 151 425 265 225
WILLOW CK
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 75 147 102 55 51
FRASER RIVER
WINTER PARK APR-JUL 26 130 31 21 20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N APR-JUL 130 137 160 103 95
BLUE RIVER
DILLON RES APR-JUL 225 135 280 176 167
GREEN MTN RES APR-JUL 380 136 475 295 280
MUDDY CK
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO APR-JUL 90 150 120 64 60
COLORADO RIVER
KREMMLING, NR APR-JUL 1280 147 1580 1010 870
EAGLE RIVER
GYPSUM, BLO APR-JUL 420 125 530 320 335
COLORADO RIVER
DOTSERO, NR APR-JUL 2020 140 2570 1600 1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR APR-JUL 170 121 205 136 141
ROARING FORK RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS APR-JUL 850 120 1030 690 710
COLORADO RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO APR-JUL 2860 132 3550 2350 2160
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 3240 134 4020 2600 2420
PLATEAU CK
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 150 130 200 100 115
GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
TAYLOR RIVER
TAYLOR PARK RES APR-JUL 125 121 153 100 103
ALMONT APR-JUL 200 121 240 160 165
EAST RIVER
ALMONT APR-JUL 230 120 275 188 192
GUNNISON RIVER
GUNNISON, NR APR-JUL 480 123 595 380 390
TOMICHI CK
GUNNISON APR-JUL 80 99 125 48 81
LAKE FORK RIVER
GATEVIEW APR-JUL 121 96 151 94 126
GUNNISON RIVER
BLUE MESA RES APR-JUL 800 111 985 635 720
MORROW POINT RES APR-JUL 875 111 1040 675 785
CRYSTAL RES APR-JUL 985 108 1150 740 915
MUDDY CK
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR MAR-JUN 131 131 168 99 100
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR APR-JUN 126 133 163 96 95
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR APR-JUL 133 130 176 96 102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
SOMERSET, NR APR-JUL 380 125 455 310 305
SURFACE CK
CEDAREDGE APR-JUL 22 129 29 16.5 17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
RIDGWAY RES APR-JUL 95 93 125 69 102
COLONA APR-JUL 130 94 183 86 139
DELTA APR-JUL 97 83 147 67 117
GUNNISON RIVER
GRAND JUNCTION, NR APR-JUL 1700 109 2100 1280 1560
DOLORES BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
DOLORES RIVER
DOLORES APR-JUL 187 71 260 130 265
MCPHEE RES APR-JUL 225 70 305 158 320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
PLACERVILLE, NR APR-JUL 110 83 149 70 132
DOLORES RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 420 68 515 300 615
UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 5500 118 7000 4300 4650
MILL CK
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT APR-JUL 4.8 96 7.0 3.1 5.0
SAN JUAN BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS APR-JUL 183 81 225 139 225
CARRACAS, NR APR-JUL 310 77 400 225 405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM APR-JUL 43 81 57 31 53
NAVAJO RIVER
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO APR-JUL 55 80 74 39 69
PIEDRA RIVER
ARBOLES, NR APR-JUL 170 74 230 121 230
LOS PINOS RIVER
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR APR-JUL 160 78 205 122 205
SAN JUAN RIVER
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR APR-JUL 550 70 725 395 785
FLORIDA RIVER
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR APR-JUL 42 72 55 31 58
ANIMAS RIVER
DURANGO APR-JUL 375 85 470 290 440
SAN JUAN RIVER
FARMINGTON APR-JUL 860 71 1090 580 1210
LA PLATA RIVER
HESPERUS APR-JUL 18.0 72 25 12.6 25
SAN JUAN RIVER
BLUFF, NR APR-JUL 850 69 1120 550 1230
MANCOS RIVER
MANCOS, NR APR-JUL 24 73 38 11.2 33
SOUTH CK
LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV MAR-JUL 0.78 57 1.60 0.30 1.38
LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV APR-JUL 0.71 53 1.48 0.27 1.34
EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
BIG BRUSH CK
VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV APR-JUL 23 110 32 15.3 21
ASHLEY CK
VERNAL, NR APR-JUL 55 106 80 35 52
WHITEROCKS RIVER
WHITEROCKS, NR APR-JUL 70 125 96 48 56
DUCHESNE RIVER
RANDLETT, NR APR-JUL 625 192 900 385 325
LAKE POWELL
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT APR-JUL 9500 120 12300 7200 7930
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------
THIS SPRING WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING LA NINA. THERE
IS A WEAK CORRELATION BETWEEN LA NINA AND WEATHER OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THERE IS A WEAK TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WETTER
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MARCH THROUGH
MAY INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY SUMMER.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS EARLY IN THE SNOW RUNOFF
SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.
CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI
DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.
$$
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