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RSS FeedsWater Supply & Flood Outlook for Western Colorado and Eastern Utah
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-181815-
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 5...
THIS 2011 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SPRING RUNOFF IS LIKELY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME FOR THE DUCHESNE RIVER BASIN AND LOWER GREEN. MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE PEAKS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE YAMPA...WHITE AND UPPER
COLORADO MAINSTEM BASINS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GUNNISON BASIN
WILL ALSO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE PEAKS. PEAK FLOWS IN THE YAMPA RIVER
BASIN MAY APPROACH RECORD LEVELS.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
APRIL HAVE INCREASED THE SEASONAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND DELAYED
SNOWMELT. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.
THE FOLLOWING SITES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT OR ABOVE THE FLOOD FLOW
AT THE GIVEN EXCEEDANCE LEVEL. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE THE YAMPA
RIVER NEAR DEERLODGE WILL EXCEED FLOOD WHILE THERE IS JUST A 10%
CHANCE AT THE CRYSTAL RIVER NEAR REDSTONE.
IN COLORADO
YAMPA RIVER NEAR DEERLODGE 90%
ELK RIVER NEAR MILNER 90%
YAMPA RIVER AT STEAMBOAT SPGS75%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR CAMEO75%
YAMPA RIVER NEAR MAYBELL50%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR DOTSERO50%
EAST RIVER NEAR ALMONT50%
EAGLE RIVER BELOW GYPSUM25%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR STATELINE25%
LITTLE SNAKE NEAR LILY25%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR CISCO10%
CRYSTAL RIVER NEAR REDSTONE10%
IN UTAH
GREEN RIVER NEAR JENSEN 90%
GREEN RIVER NEAR GREEN RIVER UTAH 25%
DUCHESNE NR NEAR RANDLETT 75%
KEEP IN MIND THESE ARE FORECASTS OF MEAN DAILY PEAKS. INSTANTANEOUS
PEAKS WILL BE HIGHER.
ABOVE AVERAGE PEAKS AND BANKFULL OR ABOVE CONDITIONS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL STREAMS AND SMALL TRIBUTARIES IN THE YAMPA
AND DUCHESNE RIVER BASINS.
MANY OF THE FORECAST RUNOFF VOLUMES FOR POINTS WITHIN THESE BASINS
ARE IN THE TOP THREE OF THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...WITH SOME
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE RECORD VOLUMES. SOME PEAK FLOWS MAY
ALSO EXCEED HISTORICAL RECORDS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW
MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT. SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
DURING THE 2011 SPRING RUNOFF.
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AND THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN COLORADO. NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND NEAR NORMAL FOR
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.
THE 2011 WATER YEAR SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION
RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS AROUND OR OVER 150 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN COLORADO. MANY SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 PERCENT OF HISTORICAL
RECORDS WITH SOME AT RECORD LEVEL SNOW PACK.
BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2010 TO MAY 1 2011:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
BASIN CONDITIONS (% OF AVERAGE) AS OF MAY 1:
SUBBASIN APR OCT-APR MAY1 APR
PRECIP PRECIP SNOW STRMFLW
---------------------- ------ ------- ---- --------
UPPER COLORADO 175 140 155 125
GUNNISON 150 120 140 100
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 150 105 95 65
SAN JUAN 140 95 95 60
YAMPA/WHITE 160 135 165 120
IN EASTERN UTAH...
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK (% OF AVERAGE, ROUNDED):
SUBBASIN APR PRECIP OCT-APR PREC MAY 1 SNOWPACK
---------------------- ---------- ------------ -------------
GREEN 145 126 159
DUCHESNE 180 160 190
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 110 109 52
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF APRIL 30 2010:
----------------------------------------
RESERVOIR USABLE EOM USABLE % OF
CAPACITY CONTENTS CAPACITY
---------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO - LAKE GRANB| 490.3| 317.3| 65
WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK| 9.1| 4.3| 47
WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI| 96.9| 80.1| 83
MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO| 66.0| 59.6| 90
BLUE - DILLON RES | 254.0| 212.8| 84
BLUE - GREEN MTN RES | 146.9| 57.0| 39
HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST| 43.0| 12.7| 30
FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 102.0| 59.9| 59
PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES| 32.9| 17.3| 53
TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 106.2| 72.2| 68
GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 829.5| 477.1| 58
GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 117.0| 110.8| 95
GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 17.5| 16.7| 95
MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 18.5| 0.7| 4
UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 83.2| 56.1| 67
DOLORES - MCPHEE RES | 381.1| 317.8| 83
LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 125.4| 94.5| 75
SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES| 1701.3| 1357.4| 80
FLORIDA - LEMON RES, | 39.8| 18.4| 46
COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 24322.0| 12925.6| 53
---------------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF MAY 1 2011
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
--------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
YAMPA RIVER
STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV APR-JUL 63 170 72 52 37
STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV MAY-JUL 50 179 60 40 28
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS APR-JUL 495 177 580 420 280
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS MAY-JUL 440 183 525 365 240
ELK RIVER
MILNER, NR APR-JUL 630 194 735 560 325
MILNER, NR MAY-JUL 570 204 675 500 280
ELKHEAD CK
LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR APR-JUL 151 213 190 126 71
LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR MAY-JUL 130 271 169 105 48
YAMPA RIVER
MAYBELL, NR APR-JUL 1930 195 2340 1560 990
MAYBELL, NR MAY-JUL 1700 204 2110 1330 835
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
SLATER, NR APR-JUL 305 192 365 250 159
SLATER, NR MAY-JUL 290 204 350 235 142
DIXON, NR APR-JUL 680 206 840 610 330
DIXON, NR MAY-JUL 620 218 780 550 285
LILY, NR APR-JUL 790 216 995 610 365
LILY, NR MAY-JUL 700 226 905 520 310
WHITE RIVER
MEEKER, NR APR-JUL 430 148 510 355 290
MEEKER, NR MAY-JUL 400 154 480 325 260
WATSON, NR APR-JUL 460 151 545 395 305
WATSON, NR MAY-JUL 415 154 500 350 270
UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 410 182 460 360 225
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR MAY-JUL 390 181 445 340 215
WILLOW CK
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 97 190 119 77 51
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR MAY-JUL 90 191 112 70 47
FRASER RIVER
WINTER PARK APR-JUL 30 150 35 25 20
WINTER PARK MAY-JUL 29 150 34 24 19.3
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N APR-JUL 152 160 179 127 95
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N MAY-JUL 145 163 172 120 89
BLUE RIVER
DILLON RES APR-JUL 260 156 300 220 167
DILLON RES MAY-JUL 250 158 290 210 158
GREEN MTN RES APR-JUL 435 155 510 365 280
GREEN MTN RES MAY-JUL 415 157 490 345 265
MUDDY CK
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO APR-JUL 112 187 141 87 60
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO MAY-JUL 103 198 132 78 52
COLORADO RIVER
KREMMLING, NR APR-JUL 1550 178 1750 1350 870
KREMMLING, NR MAY-JUL 1450 180 1650 1250 805
EAGLE RIVER
GYPSUM, BLO APR-JUL 485 145 575 405 335
GYPSUM, BLO MAY-JUL 460 146 550 380 315
COLORADO RIVER
DOTSERO, NR APR-JUL 2420 168 2860 2020 1440
DOTSERO, NR MAY-JUL 2270 171 2710 1870 1330
FRYING PAN RIVER
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR APR-JUL 200 142 235 171 141
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR MAY-JUL 193 144 225 163 134
ROARING FORK RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS APR-JUL 1000 141 1150 865 710
GLENWOOD SPRINGS MAY-JUL 955 144 1100 820 665
COLORADO RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO APR-JUL 3400 157 3850 2950 2160
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO MAY-JUL 3210 160 3660 2760 2000
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 3870 160 4500 3290 2420
CAMEO, NR MAY-JUL 3630 164 4260 3050 2220
PLATEAU CK
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 178 155 210 110 115
CAMEO, NR MAY-JUL 160 165 190 92 97
GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
TAYLOR RIVER
TAYLOR PARK RES APR-JUL 143 139 169 120 103
TAYLOR PARK RES MAY-JUL 135 142 161 112 95
ALMONT APR-JUL 210 127 245 195 165
ALMONT MAY-JUL 198 131 235 183 151
EAST RIVER
ALMONT APR-JUL 270 141 300 240 192
ALMONT MAY-JUL 255 143 285 225 178
GUNNISON RIVER
GUNNISON, NR APR-JUL 530 136 620 455 390
GUNNISON, NR MAY-JUL 500 141 590 425 355
TOMICHI CK
GUNNISON APR-JUL 87 107 124 59 81
GUNNISON MAY-JUL 75 110 112 47 68
LAKE FORK RIVER
GATEVIEW APR-JUL 135 107 157 114 126
GATEVIEW MAY-JUL 128 108 150 107 119
GUNNISON RIVER
BLUE MESA RES APR-JUL 945 131 1050 825 720
BLUE MESA RES MAY-JUL 870 135 970 750 645
MORROW POINT RES APR-JUL 1030 131 1120 925 785
MORROW POINT RES MAY-JUL 950 136 1040 840 700
CRYSTAL RES APR-JUL 1160 127 1220 990 915
CRYSTAL RES MAY-JUL 1070 131 1130 900 815
MUDDY CK
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR MAR-JUN 142 142 169 118 100
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR MAY-JUN 115 153 142 91 75
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR APR-JUL 149 146 182 120 102
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR MAY-JUL 127 155 160 98 82
NF GUNNISON RIVER
SOMERSET, NR APR-JUL 410 134 475 350 305
SOMERSET, NR MAY-JUL 360 138 425 300 260
SURFACE CK
CEDAREDGE APR-JUL 24 140 30 19.5 17.1
CEDAREDGE MAY-JUL 22 148 28 17.2 14.9
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
RIDGWAY RES APR-JUL 110 108 131 91 102
RIDGWAY RES MAY-JUL 100 109 121 81 92
COLONA APR-JUL 147 106 186 113 139
COLONA MAY-JUL 135 110 174 101 123
DELTA APR-JUL 115 98 148 95 117
DELTA MAY-JUL 107 108 140 87 99
GUNNISON RIVER
GRAND JUNCTION, NR APR-JUL 1970 126 2270 1630 1560
GRAND JUNCTION, NR MAY-JUL 1750 131 2050 1410 1340
DOLORES BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
DOLORES RIVER
DOLORES APR-JUL 200 75 245 163 265
DOLORES MAY-JUL 170 77 215 131 220
MCPHEE RES APR-JUL 235 73 285 192 320
MCPHEE RES MAY-JUL 190 73 240 146 260
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
PLACERVILLE, NR APR-JUL 122 92 150 99 132
PLACERVILLE, NR MAY-JUL 114 97 141 90 117
DOLORES RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 445 72 495 390 615
CISCO, NR MAY-JUL 355 76 405 300 470
UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 6480 139 7680 5390 4650
CISCO, NR MAY-JUL 5910 145 7110 4820 4080
MILL CK
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT APR-JUL 5.3 106 6.9 4.0 5.0
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT MAY-JUL 4.8 112 6.4 3.5 4.3
SAN JUAN BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS APR-JUL 194 86 220 174 225
PAGOSA SPRINGS MAY-JUL 160 83 185 140 192
CARRACAS, NR APR-JUL 310 77 365 255 405
CARRACAS, NR MAY-JUL 255 78 310 200 325
RIO BLANCO RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM APR-JUL 43 81 54 34 53
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM MAY-JUL 36 80 47 27 45
NAVAJO RIVER
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO APR-JUL 55 80 70 42 69
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO MAY-JUL 46 79 61 33 58
PIEDRA RIVER
ARBOLES, NR APR-JUL 170 74 210 137 230
ARBOLES, NR MAY-JUL 130 76 170 97 172
LOS PINOS RIVER
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR APR-JUL 153 75 178 130 205
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR MAY-JUL 131 71 156 108 184
SAN JUAN RIVER
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR APR-JUL 545 69 630 465 785
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR MAY-JUL 430 70 515 350 615
FLORIDA RIVER
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR APR-JUL 41 71 51 32 58
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR MAY-JUL 37 70 47 28 53
ANIMAS RIVER
DURANGO APR-JUL 400 91 450 350 440
DURANGO MAY-JUL 360 92 455 265 390
SAN JUAN RIVER
FARMINGTON APR-JUL 870 72 995 765 1210
FARMINGTON MAY-JUL 725 74 850 620 985
LA PLATA RIVER
HESPERUS APR-JUL 18.0 72 22 14.4 25
HESPERUS MAY-JUL 14.3 68 18.7 10.7 21
SAN JUAN RIVER
BLUFF, NR APR-JUL 875 71 1110 670 1230
BLUFF, NR MAY-JUL 730 75 965 525 975
MANCOS RIVER
MANCOS, NR APR-JUL 24 73 31 17.7 33
MANCOS, NR MAY-JUL 18.0 62 25 12.2 29
SOUTH CK
LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV MAR-JUL 0.64 46 1.06 0.37 1.38
EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
BIG BRUSH CK
VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV APR-JUL 23 110 32 15.3 21
ASHLEY CK
VERNAL, NR APR-JUL 55 106 80 35 52
WHITEROCKS RIVER
WHITEROCKS, NR APR-JUL 70 125 96 48 56
DUCHESNE RIVER
RANDLETT, NR APR-JUL 625 192 900 385 325
LAKE POWELL
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT APR-JUL 11500 145 14200 9080 7930
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT MAY-JUL 10500 151 13200 8100 6940
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------
THIS SPRING WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING LA NINA. THERE
IS A WEAK CORRELATION BETWEEN LA NINA AND WEATHER OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THERE IS A WEAK TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WETTER
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MAY THROUGH JULY
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO.
CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI
DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.
$$
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