Water Supply & Flood Outlook for Western Colorado and Eastern Utah

ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-181815-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 5...

THIS 2011 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SPRING RUNOFF IS LIKELY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME FOR THE DUCHESNE RIVER BASIN AND LOWER GREEN. MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE PEAKS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE YAMPA...WHITE AND UPPER
COLORADO MAINSTEM BASINS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GUNNISON BASIN
WILL ALSO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE PEAKS. PEAK FLOWS IN THE YAMPA RIVER
BASIN MAY APPROACH RECORD LEVELS.

MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
APRIL HAVE INCREASED THE SEASONAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND DELAYED
SNOWMELT. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.

THE FOLLOWING SITES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT OR ABOVE THE FLOOD FLOW
AT THE GIVEN EXCEEDANCE LEVEL. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE  THE YAMPA
RIVER NEAR DEERLODGE WILL EXCEED FLOOD WHILE THERE IS JUST A 10%
CHANCE AT THE CRYSTAL RIVER NEAR REDSTONE.

IN COLORADO

YAMPA RIVER NEAR DEERLODGE  90%
ELK RIVER NEAR MILNER           90%
YAMPA RIVER AT STEAMBOAT SPGS75%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR CAMEO75%
YAMPA RIVER NEAR MAYBELL50%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR DOTSERO50%
EAST RIVER NEAR ALMONT50%
EAGLE RIVER BELOW GYPSUM25%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR STATELINE25%
LITTLE SNAKE NEAR LILY25%
COLORADO RIVER NEAR CISCO10%
CRYSTAL RIVER NEAR REDSTONE10%

IN UTAH

GREEN RIVER NEAR JENSEN            90%
GREEN RIVER NEAR GREEN RIVER UTAH  25%
DUCHESNE NR NEAR RANDLETT          75%


KEEP IN MIND THESE ARE FORECASTS OF MEAN DAILY PEAKS. INSTANTANEOUS
PEAKS WILL BE HIGHER.

ABOVE AVERAGE PEAKS AND BANKFULL OR ABOVE CONDITIONS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL STREAMS AND SMALL TRIBUTARIES IN THE YAMPA
AND DUCHESNE RIVER BASINS.

MANY OF THE FORECAST RUNOFF VOLUMES FOR POINTS WITHIN THESE BASINS
ARE IN THE TOP THREE OF THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...WITH SOME
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE RECORD VOLUMES.  SOME PEAK FLOWS MAY
ALSO EXCEED HISTORICAL RECORDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW
MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT.  SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS.  RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
DURING THE 2011 SPRING RUNOFF.

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AND THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN COLORADO. NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND NEAR NORMAL FOR
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.

THE 2011 WATER YEAR SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION
RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS AROUND OR OVER 150 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN COLORADO. MANY SITES ARE IN THE TOP 5 PERCENT OF HISTORICAL
RECORDS WITH SOME AT RECORD LEVEL SNOW PACK.

BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2010 TO MAY 1 2011:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...


BASIN CONDITIONS (% OF AVERAGE) AS OF MAY 1:

 SUBBASIN                  APR       OCT-APR    MAY1      APR
                          PRECIP     PRECIP     SNOW    STRMFLW
----------------------    ------     -------    ----    --------
   UPPER COLORADO          175         140      155       125
   GUNNISON                150         120      140       100
   DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL      150         105       95        65
   SAN JUAN                140          95       95        60
   YAMPA/WHITE             160         135      165       120


IN EASTERN UTAH...

PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK (% OF AVERAGE, ROUNDED):

SUBBASIN                 APR PRECIP     OCT-APR PREC     MAY 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------     -------------
GREEN                       145             126               159
DUCHESNE                    180             160               190
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           110             109               52

RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF APRIL 30 2010:
----------------------------------------

 RESERVOIR                 USABLE     EOM USABLE  % OF
                           CAPACITY   CONTENTS   CAPACITY
---------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|      490.3|       317.3|     65
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|        9.1|         4.3|     47
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|       96.9|        80.1|     83
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|       66.0|        59.6|     90
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |      254.0|       212.8|     84
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |      146.9|        57.0|     39
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|       43.0|        12.7|     30
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|      102.0|        59.9|     59
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|       32.9|        17.3|     53
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |      106.2|        72.2|     68
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |      829.5|       477.1|     58
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|      117.0|       110.8|     95
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|       17.5|        16.7|     95
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|       18.5|         0.7|      4
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|       83.2|        56.1|     67
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |      381.1|       317.8|     83
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|      125.4|        94.5|     75
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|     1701.3|      1357.4|     80
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |       39.8|        18.4|     46
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|    24322.0|     12925.6|     53

---------------------------------------------------------

SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF MAY 1 2011

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
--------------------

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     63   170     72     52     37
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            MAY-JUL     50   179     60     40     28
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    495   177    580    420    280
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               MAY-JUL    440   183    525    365    240
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    630   194    735    560    325
  MILNER, NR                      MAY-JUL    570   204    675    500    280
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL    151   213    190    126     71
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     MAY-JUL    130   271    169    105     48
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL   1930   195   2340   1560    990
  MAYBELL, NR                     MAY-JUL   1700   204   2110   1330    835
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    305   192    365    250    159
  SLATER, NR                      MAY-JUL    290   204    350    235    142
  DIXON, NR                       APR-JUL    680   206    840    610    330
  DIXON, NR                       MAY-JUL    620   218    780    550    285
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    790   216    995    610    365
  LILY, NR                        MAY-JUL    700   226    905    520    310
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    430   148    510    355    290
  MEEKER, NR                      MAY-JUL    400   154    480    325    260
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    460   151    545    395    305
  WATSON, NR                      MAY-JUL    415   154    500    350    270

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    410   182    460    360    225
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         MAY-JUL    390   181    445    340    215
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     97   190    119     77     51
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       MAY-JUL     90   191    112     70     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL     30   150     35     25     20
  WINTER PARK                     MAY-JUL     29   150     34     24   19.3
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL    152   160    179    127     95
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  MAY-JUL    145   163    172    120     89
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    260   156    300    220    167
  DILLON RES                      MAY-JUL    250   158    290    210    158
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    435   155    510    365    280
  GREEN MTN RES                   MAY-JUL    415   157    490    345    265
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO            APR-JUL    112   187    141     87     60
  WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO            MAY-JUL    103   198    132     78     52
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL   1550   178   1750   1350    870
  KREMMLING, NR                   MAY-JUL   1450   180   1650   1250    805
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    485   145    575    405    335
  GYPSUM, BLO                     MAY-JUL    460   146    550    380    315
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   2420   168   2860   2020   1440
  DOTSERO, NR                     MAY-JUL   2270   171   2710   1870   1330
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    200   142    235    171    141
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           MAY-JUL    193   144    225    163    134
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL   1000   141   1150    865    710
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                MAY-JUL    955   144   1100    820    665
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   3400   157   3850   2950   2160
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           MAY-JUL   3210   160   3660   2760   2000
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   3870   160   4500   3290   2420
  CAMEO, NR                       MAY-JUL   3630   164   4260   3050   2220
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL    178   155    210    110    115
  CAMEO, NR                       MAY-JUL    160   165    190     92     97

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL    143   139    169    120    103
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 MAY-JUL    135   142    161    112     95
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    210   127    245    195    165
  ALMONT                          MAY-JUL    198   131    235    183    151
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    270   141    300    240    192
  ALMONT                          MAY-JUL    255   143    285    225    178
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    530   136    620    455    390
  GUNNISON, NR                    MAY-JUL    500   141    590    425    355
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     87   107    124     59     81
  GUNNISON                        MAY-JUL     75   110    112     47     68
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    135   107    157    114    126
  GATEVIEW                        MAY-JUL    128   108    150    107    119
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    945   131   1050    825    720
  BLUE MESA RES                   MAY-JUL    870   135    970    750    645
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL   1030   131   1120    925    785
  MORROW POINT RES                MAY-JUL    950   136   1040    840    700
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL   1160   127   1220    990    915
  CRYSTAL RES                     MAY-JUL   1070   131   1130    900    815
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN    142   142    169    118    100
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAY-JUN    115   153    142     91     75
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL    149   146    182    120    102
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAY-JUL    127   155    160     98     82
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    410   134    475    350    305
  SOMERSET, NR                    MAY-JUL    360   138    425    300    260
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL     24   140     30   19.5   17.1
  CEDAREDGE                       MAY-JUL     22   148     28   17.2   14.9
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL    110   108    131     91    102
  RIDGWAY RES                     MAY-JUL    100   109    121     81     92
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    147   106    186    113    139
  COLONA                          MAY-JUL    135   110    174    101    123
  DELTA                           APR-JUL    115    98    148     95    117
  DELTA                           MAY-JUL    107   108    140     87     99
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1970   126   2270   1630   1560
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              MAY-JUL   1750   131   2050   1410   1340

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    200    75    245    163    265
  DOLORES                         MAY-JUL    170    77    215    131    220
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    235    73    285    192    320
  MCPHEE RES                      MAY-JUL    190    73    240    146    260
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    122    92    150     99    132
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 MAY-JUL    114    97    141     90    117
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    445    72    495    390    615
  CISCO, NR                       MAY-JUL    355    76    405    300    470

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   6480   139   7680   5390   4650
  CISCO, NR                       MAY-JUL   5910   145   7110   4820   4080
MILL CK
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT        APR-JUL    5.3   106    6.9    4.0    5.0
  MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT        MAY-JUL    4.8   112    6.4    3.5    4.3

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    194    86    220    174    225
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  MAY-JUL    160    83    185    140    192
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    310    77    365    255    405
  CARRACAS, NR                    MAY-JUL    255    78    310    200    325
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     43    81     54     34     53
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  MAY-JUL     36    80     47     27     45
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     55    80     70     42     69
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    MAY-JUL     46    79     61     33     58
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    170    74    210    137    230
  ARBOLES, NR                     MAY-JUL    130    76    170     97    172
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    153    75    178    130    205
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     MAY-JUL    131    71    156    108    184
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    545    69    630    465    785
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       MAY-JUL    430    70    515    350    615
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     41    71     51     32     58
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          MAY-JUL     37    70     47     28     53
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    400    91    450    350    440
  DURANGO                         MAY-JUL    360    92    455    265    390
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL    870    72    995    765   1210
  FARMINGTON                      MAY-JUL    725    74    850    620    985
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   18.0    72     22   14.4     25
  HESPERUS                        MAY-JUL   14.3    68   18.7   10.7     21
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL    875    71   1110    670   1230
  BLUFF, NR                       MAY-JUL    730    75    965    525    975
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL     24    73     31   17.7     33
  MANCOS, NR                      MAY-JUL   18.0    62     25   12.2     29
SOUTH CK
  LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV  MAR-JUL   0.64    46   1.06   0.37   1.38

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX  RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL     23   110     32   15.3     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     55   106     80     35     52
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     70   125     96     48     56
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    625   192    900    385    325

LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL  11500   145  14200   9080   7930
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   MAY-JUL  10500   151  13200   8100   6940

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.


CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------
THIS SPRING WEATHER MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING LA NINA. THERE
IS A WEAK CORRELATION BETWEEN LA NINA AND WEATHER OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THERE IS A WEAK TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WETTER
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MAY THROUGH JULY
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS


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