What to look for:
- Chances for storms as early as Tuesday morning rolling in from the west.
- Better chances for storms during the afternoon and evening hours some of which may be severe.
- Storm threats Tuesday include strong/damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rains.
- An isolated Tornado cannot be ruled out, but instability (lift in the atmosphere) may not be quite strong enough.
- Highest likelihood for storms and severe weather will come during the afternoon and evening hours.
The potential exists for strong to severe storms to move through Southwest Lower Michigan from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Southwest Lower Michigan in a threat area for severe weather during this time. Severe weather is not a sure thing as of Monday Afternoon however, as the evolution of storms tonight in the plains could affect our chances for storms and severe weather on Tuesday.
A couple of scenarios exist in the evolution of storms through Tuesday night. A complex of storms is expected to refire tonight across portions of Nebraska and Kansas. These storms will lift east-northeast across Iowa toward the Southern Great Lakes tonight. This complex of storms may move into Southern Lower Michigan during the morning and midday hours. These storms could reintensify as they move in and provide a threat for severe weather, especially damaging winds. A second and more likely scenario would have storms diminishing over Iowa and Illinois late tonight into Tuesday morning, which may provide greater chances for severe weather later in the day here in Southwest Lower Michigan. In this scenario, daytime heating and a strong push of moisture from the south may allow storms to develop over or near the Southern Great Lakes lifting north and east with time during the afternoon and evening.
The ingredients that look to come together tomorrow include a warm front lifting north through the area which will provide a focus for thunderstorms. In addition, a stream of moisture off of the gulf will be flowing into the region along with stronger winds aloft that will aid in storm longevity.
National Radar Loop
Day One Severe Weather Outlook (Today/Tonight)
Day Two Severe Weather Outlook (Tuesday/Tuesday Night)