National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

The Mild & Dry Fall Worsens the Drought across Kansas

Kansas and much of the central Plains are in the second year of severe to exceptional drought conditions. The recent unseasonably mild and dry Fall has only exacerbated the drought, especially across central and western Kansas. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, through December 4th, shows much of Kansas in extreme to exceptional drought now. The only exceptions being far eastern and parts of north central and northeast Kansas.

Over the past 74 days, Wichita, Kansas has only received 0.87" of precipitation for the period, September 27th through December 9th.  This ranks as the 7th driest year for that period of record, dating back to 1888. Much of the western high Plains have received even less precipitation and in some cases little more than a trace of rain or snow in the past 60 days or more.

The drought has not only had a detrimental impact on agriculture and crops across Kansas and the Plains but also has greatly reduced water levels on reservoirs and rivers, with many areas reporting very low and in some cases record low stream flows.

Despite the ongoing two year drought, parts of Kansas did experience some beneficial moisture last Fall (2011) which helped the 2012 Winter wheat crop. For example, in south central Kansas, Wichita received 5.15" of precipitation during October-November, 2011. This occurred during the critical early stages after planting when the wheat sprouts before going dormant for the Winter. However, this Fall was much drier with only 0.87" of precipitation recorded at Wichita for the same two month period.

Comparing departures from normal over the past two meteorological Fall seasons (Sept-Nov) across central Kansas also shows how much drier this Fall season was over that of 2011.  Most of south central Kansas averaged between 3 to 5 inches below seasonal normal precipitation for these three Fall months in 2012, with the driest conditions closer to the Oklahoma border. This was quite different from Fall 2011, where departures were close to normal or only slightly below seasonal normal. The lack of moisture this Fall has impacted the current Winter wheat crop. The Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service indicated a couple weeks ago that 25% of the Winter wheat was in poor to very poor condition, 46% in fair condition, and only 28% in good condition (only 1% was rated excellent). 

  

While the short term forecast is at least calling for a return to more seasonal temperatures across Kansas and the Plains through mid-December, the more frequent upper level trough and frontal passages will remain mostly moisture starved at low levels. This will preclude any widespread, meaningful precipitation leading up to Christmas. The impact and scope of the drought extends well beyond Kansas. From agricultural crops and livestock to very low stream/river flows for navigation, the relatively dry and unseasonably mild past couple of months have only exacerbated the ongoing extreme to exceptional drought across the nations heartland.