2012 Spring Flood Outlook - updated March 1st

** We would appreciate your comments on our Spring Flood and Water
Resources Outlook product. A very short survey can be taken
here. **

 

FGUS73 KILX 011814
ESFILX
ILC009-017-025-033-057-079-095-101-113-123-125-129-137-143-147-155-
159-167-169-179-183-203-021814-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1214 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

...SPRING
FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WITH
MINOR FLOODING PROBABLE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...

THIS
FLOOD OUTLOOK COVERS THE LINCOLN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA /HSA/
WHICH ENCOMPASSES 35 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. IT
INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

-ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY TO BEARDSTOWN
-SPOON RIVER FROM LONDON MILLS TO SEVILLE
-MACKINAW RIVER AT CONGERVILLE
-SANGAMON RIVER FROM MONTICELLO TO CHANDLERVILLE
-SALT
CREEK AT GREENVIEW
-LITTLE WABASH RIVER NEAR CLAY CITY
-EMBARRAS RIVER FROM STE MARIE TO LAWRENCEVILLE

THESE
FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING...IN ADDITION TO THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED
WHEN
RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR ARE FORECAST TO RISE
ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. THEY ARE BASED ON CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...SOIL
CONDITIONS...
SNOW PACK...ALONG WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.


FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL SINCE
THE FIRST
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED ON FEB 16TH. THE RISK OF FLOODING
FROM LATE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING CONTINUES AS BEING NEAR TO
BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

WITH NEAR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING...THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
USUALLY
FLOOD IN THE SPRING WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL FLOODING
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING WEEKS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES...LOCATIONS ALONG THE MAINSTEM
ILLINOIS RIVER HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF EXPERIENCING AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING. OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF THE EMBARRAS AND
LITTLE WABASH RIVERS ALSO SHOW HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


WINTER WEATHER REVIEW...

--DECEMBER--

INFORMATION COURTESY OF THE ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...SHOWS THAT
THE AVERAGE STATEWIDE PRECIPITATION FOR DECEMBER IN ILLINOIS WAS 3.43
INCHES. THIS IS 0.74 INCHES ABOVE AVERAGE OR 127 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FELL WAS IN THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO
ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL WAS SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE STATE. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
FROM A YEAR AGO WHEN MANY LOCATIONS IN ILLINOIS HAD ALREADY REPORTED
10 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH MUCH MORE FOLLOWING IN JANUARY AND
FEBRUARY.

ACROSS THE ILX
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR
DECEMBER WERE OVERALL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING
BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THESE AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.29 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL IN DECATUR TO 1.00 INCH ABOVE NORMAL IN MATTOON...OR RANGING
FROM NEAR 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER WERE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. MONTHLY AVERAGES
RANGED FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 60S.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS MONTH
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID 40S IN DECEMBER. THEY NORMALLY
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

--JANUARY--

THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY WAS 1.87 INCHES WHICH
IS 97 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. WESTERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS WERE DRIER THAN
THOSE IN THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGING FROM 50 TO 125
PERCENT OF AVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOWFALL FOR JANUARY IN
ILLINOIS WAS GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES BEING COMMON. SNOWFALL WAS ABOVE
NORMAL
NORTH OF I-74 WITH AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 19 INCHES.

ACROSS THE ILX
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR
JANUARY RANGED ABOVE AND BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THESE AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM 0.76 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL IN LINCOLN TO 1.01 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL
IN LAWRENCEVILLE. AGAIN...THESE TOTALS RANGED FROM 50 TO 125 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY WERE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
AVERAGES RANGED FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS RANGED FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 60S.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS MONTH RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID 40S IN JANUARY. THEY NORMALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS.

--FEBRUARY--

FEBRUARY CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGES RANGED
FROM 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO
THE UPPPER 60S.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS MONTH RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
THE MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 40S
IN FEBRUARY. THEY NORMALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO THE UPPEER 20S.

PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH BELOW
NORMAL.

BELOW IS A LISTING OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DEFICITS FROM LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS WINTER.

...SNOWFALL OCT 1 2011 - FEB 29 2012...

PEORIA...............10.4 INCH SNOW /10.9 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
SPRINGFIELD.......... 6.4 INCH SNOW /11.7 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
LINCOLN.............. 5.4 INCH SNOW /13.1 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
CHAMPAIGN/URBANA.....10.9 INCH SNOW / 9.5 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
BLOOMINGTON/
NORMAL... 7.8 INCH SNOW / 9.9 INCHES BELOW NORMAL/
MORTON............... 9.4 INCH SNOW /10.9 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
KNOXVILLE............ 8.7 INCH SNOW /12.8 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
DANVILLE............. 8.4 INCH SNOW / 6.8 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
TUSCOLA.............. 6.8 INCH SNOW / 9.1 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
JACKSONVILLE......... 4.9 INCH SNOW / 9.9 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
CHARLESTON........... 5.3 INCH SNOW / 9.9 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
MATTOON.............. 5.9 INCH SNOW / 7.0 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
EFFINGHAM............ 5.6 INCH SNOW / 8.5 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
FLORA................ 3.0 INCH SNOW / 8.0 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/
LAWRENCEVILLE........ 2.0 INCH SNOW /11.9 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL/


SOIL
MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTH CONDITIONS...

SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF ILLINOIS RANGED FROM THE 30TH
TO 70TH PERCENTILE WHICH IS IN THE
NORMAL RANGE. THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR INDICATES NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.

DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LAST WEEK...NO FROST IS BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE ILX
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.


RIVER CONDITIONS...

RIVER ICE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS SO FAR
THIS WINTER. THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT REALLY ALLOWED
RIVER ICE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.

INFORMATION COURTESY OF THE USGS...SHOWS THAT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
ACROSS A MAJORITY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ARE IN THE 10TH TO
24TH AND 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE. THESE RANGES ARE RATED AS BELOW
NORMAL AND NORMAL RESPECTIVELY. THERE ARE ALSO A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS
RATING BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE...WHICH IS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS OF THIS SPRING
FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUANCE THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS IN
THE ILX HSA THAT ARE ABOVE MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.


WEATHER OUTLOOKS...

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH
MID MARCH. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK /MAR 1ST TO MAR 7TH/ CALLS
FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ILLINOIS COMES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.

THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK /MAR 8TH TO
MAR 14TH/ INDICATES A GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.
A GREATER THAN 33 PERCENT
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF ILLINOIS.

THE
CPC ONE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH SHOWS A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT ILLINOIS. A
GREATER THAN 33 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF STATE AS WELL...WITH A GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.

THE
CPC 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOK /MARCH...APRIL...MAY/ SHOWS A GREATER
THAN 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ILLINOIS. THE PROBABILITIES SHOW EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH A GREATER
THAN 33 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
EAST.


FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

OVERALL...NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING EXIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MINOR
FLOODING IS HIGHEST ALONG THE MAINSTEM ILLINOIS RIVER AS WELL AS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EMBARASS AND LITTLE WABASH RIVERS.

DUE TO THE LACK OF
SNOWPACK...SNOWMELT WILL NOT BE A CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS SPRING.
ANY FLOODING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE DRIVEN BY INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS
WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT LONG RANGE.

THIS SPRING
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE
SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOWPACK...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AT THE TIME OF
ISSUANCE AS WELL AS FUTURE EXPECTATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY DURING THE
LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING WHICH MAY ALTER THE PROBABILITIES AND
SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF FLOODING.


                    -----------
FLOOD STAGE-----------     DEPARTURE
LOCATION             MINOR      MODERATE     MAJOR       FROM
NORMAL
                    STG PCT    STG   PCT    STG   PCT    OF REACHING
                                                        
FLOOD STAGE
ILLINOIS RIVER
HENRY             23.0  45%   24.0  32%   31.0   ---    6% LESS
PEORIA            18.0  63%   22.0  16%   28.0   ---    NEAR
NORMAL
HAVANA            14.0  67%   17.0  32%   23.0   ---    NEAR NORMAL
BEARDSTOWN        14.0  70%   18.0  44%   28.0   ---    9% LESS

SPOON RIVER
LONDON MILLS      15.0  42%   21.0  18%   24.0    3%    6% LESS
SEVILLE           22.0  27%   25.0  13%   30.0    1%    9% LESS

MACKINAW RIVER
CONGERVILLE       13.0  18%   14.0  14%   20.0   ---    6% LESS

SANGAMON RIVER
MONTICELLO        13.0  54%   17.0   6%   20.0   ---    13% LESS
RIVERTON          23.0  11%   26.0   3%   29.0    1%    NEAR
NORMAL
PETERSBURG        23.0  16%   24.0  14%   33.0    1%    NEAR NORMAL

SALT CREEK
GREENVIEW         16.0  14%   17.0  11%   20.0    6%    NEAR NORMAL

SANGAMON RIVER
OAKFORD          471.0  19%  472.9  14%  478.5   ---    11% LESS
CHANDLERVILLE    456.6  26%  459.0  16%  462.0    3%    18% LESS

---------------------------------------------------------------------

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS FOR THE
ILLINOIS...SANGAMON...MACKINAW AND SPOON RIVERS AS WELL AS SALT
CREEK...AND THE 95 TO 5 PERCENT COLUMNS FOR THE VERMILION...EMBARRAS
AND LITTLE WABASH RIVERS...INDICATE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...THE
CHANCES OF THE RIVER RISING ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE DURING THE NEXT
90 DAYS.

EXAMPLE USING THE TABLE BELOW THIS SECTION...

THE EMBARRAS RIVER AT LAWRENCEVILLE HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 30.0 FEET.
WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 75 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 30.6 FEET.


EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

          CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                 VALID MAR. 05 2012 - JUN. 03 2012
                         ALL STAGES IN FEET


LOCATION        FS (
FT)   90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------        -------   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
ILLINOIS RIVER
HENRY           23.0    16.4 18.1 20.2 21.9 22.8 23.2 24.5 25.1 26.2
PEORIA          18.0    13.1 13.8 15.7 18.4 19.3 19.8 20.9 21.8 22.7
HAVANA          14.0    10.7 12.6 13.6 14.8 15.8 16.2 17.4 18.3 19.0
BEARDSTOWN      14.0    11.3 12.5 14.9 16.3 17.6 19.0 20.1 22.3 24.7

SPOON RIVER
LONDON MILLS    15.0     8.3 10.0 12.0 12.5 14.4 15.9 18.4 20.8 23.4
SEVILLE         22.0    10.1 13.4 14.3 15.3 16.7 19.1 21.3 24.1 25.9

MACKINAW RIVER
CONGERVILLE     13.0     4.3  5.1  6.2  8.0  8.9  9.8 10.5 12.4 14.9

SANGAMON RIVER
MONTICELLO      13.0    10.3 11.2 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.5 16.5
RIVERTON        23.0     9.5 12.7 15.0 16.2 17.1 18.6 20.1 21.7 23.4
PETERSBURG      23.0     9.0 10.7 11.9 13.4 14.5 16.3 17.5 22.2 25.1

SALT
CREEK
GREENVIEW       16.0     3.9  5.3  6.8  8.4  9.4 10.3 11.2 12.9 18.5

LOCATION        FS (
FT)   90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------        -------   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
SANGAMON RIVER
OAKFORD        471.0     460  462  463  465  466  467  469  471  474
CHANDLERVILLE  456.6     447  449  451  452  454  455  456  458  460


LOCATION        FS (
FT)    95%   90%   75%   50%   25%   10%   5%
--------        -------    ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
VERMILION RIVER
DANVILLE        18.0      7.8   8.9  11.1  14.1  16.6  21.6  25.2

LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CLAY CITY       16.0     13.9  16.2  18.7  19.8  20.9  21.5  23.6

EMBARRAS RIVER
STE MARIE       19.0      8.8  10.3  14.0  17.7  20.2  21.6  22.5
LAWRENCEVILLE   30.0     25.8  26.7  30.6  32.9  34.8  37.3  39.5


NOTES...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL
MOISTURE AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED.

THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).

---------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

THE TERM
MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO
PROPERTY DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM
MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION OR ANOTHER LOCATION
MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE PROPERTY. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

THE TERM
MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE...USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF
PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
ROADS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.
NOAA.GOV/ILX (USE LOWER CASE)
FOR MORE OFFICIAL
NWS RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION. TO VIEW
GRAPHICAL AHPS INFORMATION...INCLUDING FORECASTS...SELECT /RIVERS
AND LAKES/ FROM THE LIST ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE.
FULL AHPS GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS IN THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SERVICE AREA.

FOR 30 TO 90 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...VISIT THE
WEB PAGE OF THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.
CPC.NOAA.GOV (USE LOWER CASE)

THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THE SPRING
FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES
OUTLOOK THIS SEASON FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ANOTHER SPRING
FLOOD OUTLOOKS MAY BE ISSUED ON MARCH 22ND IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE
NOAA NATIONAL SPRING OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED ON THURSDAY...MARCH 15TH. NATIONAL
FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK THIS
YEAR IS MARCH 12TH TO 16TH.

$$



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