2013 Spring Flood Outlook #2 - Issued March 7th

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1023 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013

...2013 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS WITH MINOR FLOODING PROBABLE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...

THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK COVERS THE LINCOLN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA /HSA/
WHICH ENCOMPASSES 35 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. IT
INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

-ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY TO BEARDSTOWN
-SPOON RIVER FROM LONDON MILLS TO SEVILLE
-MACKINAW RIVER AT CONGERVILLE
-SANGAMON RIVER FROM MONTICELLO TO CHANDLERVILLE
-SALT CREEK AT GREENVIEW
-LITTLE WABASH RIVER NEAR CLAY CITY
-EMBARRAS RIVER FROM STE MARIE TO LAWRENCEVILLE

THESE FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...IN
ADDITION TO THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THEY ARE BASED ON CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...SOIL CONDITIONS...SNOW
PACK...AS WELL AS SHORT/LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS.

FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING IS OVERALL
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

WITH NEAR NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING...THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
TYPICALLY FLOOD IN THE SPRING WILL LIKELY SEE NORMAL FLOODING
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING WEEKS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES...LOCATIONS ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF EXPERIENCING AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING THIS SPRING. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE EMBARRAS AND LITTLE WABASH
RIVERS SHOW HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING AS
WELL...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINTER WEATHER REVIEW...

--DECEMBER--

INFORMATION COURTESY OF THE ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST SHOWS THAT
THE AVERAGE STATEWIDE PRECIPITATION FOR DECEMBER WAS 2.34 INCHES.
THIS IS 0.40 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...OR 85 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

ONE OF THE BIG STORIES FROM DECEMBER WAS THE STARK CONTRAST OF SNOW
TOTALS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS ILLINOS. HEAVY SNOW OF UP TO 18
INCHES FELL ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH ALMOST NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IN THE NORTH.

ACROSS THE ILX HSA...PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR DECEMBER WERE MIXED...
WITH LOCATIONS THAT WERE ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM 1.53 INCHES IN DANVILLE TO 4.50
INCHES IN PARIS. THESE TOTALS RANGED FROM 1.30 INCHES BELOW NORMAL TO
1.47 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. THIS EQUATES TO
PRECIPITATION THAT RANGED FROM AROUND 50 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MONTHLY
AVERAGES RANGED FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOW 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS MONTH
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE TEENS TO THE MID 60S IN DECEMBER. THEY NORMALLY RANGE FROM THE
TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

--JANUARY--

THE AVERAGE STATEWIDE PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY WAS 3.9 INCHES...1.9
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. MOST OF THE STATE WAS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME DRIER AREAS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.
IT WAS WETTEST IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH
OVER 6 INCHES.

SNOWFALL FOR JANUARY WAS BELOW NORMAL AND RANGED FROM 6.5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHWEST CORNER TO ZERO IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. EVEN THOUGH
JANUARY FINISHED WITH BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL...IT WAS OFFSET WITH
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS.

ACROSS THE ILX HSA...PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR JANUARY WERE ABOVE
NORMAL OVERALL...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST. MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS RANGED FROM 1.56 INCHES IN CLINTON TO 6.89 INCHES IN OLNEY.
THESE TOTALS RANGED FROM 0.50 INCHES BELOW NORMAL TO 3.84 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY. THIS EQUATES TO PRECIPITATION THAT
RANGED FROM AROUND 75 TO 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY AVERAGED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. MONTHLY
AVERAGES REACHED UP TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS RANGED FROM THE
TEENS TO THE MID 60S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS MONTH RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID
50S IN JANUARY. THEY NORMALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS.

--FEBRUARY--

ACROSS THE ILX HSA...PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR FEBRUARY WERE OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL. MONTHLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM 2.01
INCHES IN CLINTON TO 3.53 INCHES IN HAVANA. THESE TOTALS RANGED FROM
0.16 INCHES BELOW NORMAL TO 1.43 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY.
THIS EQUATES TO PRECIPITATION THAT RANGED FROM AROUND 90 TO 170
PERCENT OF NORMAL.

FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES TRENDED NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVERALL. HIGHS
RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S TO THE LOW 60S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS MONTH
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER 30S. THEY NORMALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
UPPER 20S.


SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTH CONDITIONS...

AT THE END OF FEBRUARY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS RANGED FROM THE 30TH TO THE 70TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER...AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEAST WERE BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP...PUSHING INTO THE 70TH
TO 80TH PERCENTILE RANGE. THAT TREND ONLY INCREASED FURTHER IN EARLY
MARCH. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...NOW BEING REMOVED FROM D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY)
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED
UNCHANGED. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE ILX HSA
THAT ARE NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER ARE UNDER D0 CONDITIONS. AS YOU
GO FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONDTIONS WORSEN SLIGHTLY TO D1...OR
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

FROST DEPTH CONDITIONS VARY CONSIDERABLEY ACROSS THE HSA.
SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS HAVE FROST DEPTHS OF 0 TO 2 INCHES...WHILE
LOCATIONS IN