RSS Feeds90 Day Probabilistic Flood Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
936 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE CUMBERLAND RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21
FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 21.1 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 10/30/2009 - 1/24/2010
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
ELKHORN CITY 21 9.0 9.9 10.9 13.4 15.6 15.8
LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
PIKEVILLE 35 14.8 18.9 23.4 28.7 34.0 38.9
PRESTONSBURG 40 11.7 19.4 24.3 31.0 34.6 38.5
PAINTSVILLE 35 12.4 19.8 24.3 30.7 33.6 42.9
CUMBERLAND RIVER
CUMBERLAND 12 4.7 5.4 6.4 7.2 9.2 10.4
BAXTER 16 4.2 5.6 9.1 13.0 17.1 21.7
PINEVILLE 1002 983.9 987.4 993.6 997.8 1005.8 1012.2
BARBOURVILLE 27 13.8 19.9 23.1 27.4 31.0 36.2
WILLIAMSBURG 21 15.1 17.4 21.1 27.6 33.1 36.5
NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
HAZARD 20 6.5 9.0 12.4 14.2 17.0 20.1
JACKSON 29 8.1 12.9 18.3 23.0 28.8 40.5
SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
ONEIDA 29 13.8 16.4 18.1 22.8 27.8 31.4
BOONEVILLE 27 13.0 15.8 21.8 28.0 37.3 39.5
KENTUCKY RIVER
RAVENNA 21 17.2 19.6 21.8 26.1 38.3 43.8
HEIDELBERG 20 16.3 17.6 19.0 20.9 23.6 27.1
RED RIVER
CLAY CITY 17 8.6 10.2 12.4 17.0 20.3 22.0
FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...THROUGH THE 29TH...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL...AVERAGING AROUND
3 INCHES.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/S 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID NOVEMBER
7TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 13TH...CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/S 90 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID NOVEMBER
THROUGH JANUARY...CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY (ALL LOWER CASE)
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