A broad upper level low pressure system continues to spin over the Midwest. A disturbance rotating around this low is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms to southwest Indiana and western Kentucky late this afternoon and continuing into the evening.
This system will force a surface low pressure system to develop near the Missouri Bootheel late this afternoon and then shift northeast along the Ohio River through midnight before rotating northward toward Lake Michigan Monday morning. As this low surges toward the area, expect the line of showers with some embedded thunderstorms to shift slowly eastward by midnight. With strong winds forecast just above the surface and as the low pressure develops, expect periods of gusty winds with the stronger winds coming as the individual storms roll through. The best chance for strong winds to occur looks to be over western and southern parts of central Kentucky.
With the heavier rains tonight, expect rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches along west of the I-65 corridor, with isolated totals of 3 inches possible. Storm totals east of I-65 should range from half an inch to one and a half inches.