Accumulating Snowfall Possible Tonight and Monday

Although spring has officially sprung, it will not feel like it the next couple of days.  A rather potent storm system will develop across the Central Plains and move into the Ohio Valley this evening.  There remains some uncertainty on the exact track of the surface low pressure system, as detailed by the map below.  The green dots represent forecast model predictions of the location of the surface low pressure center by 8 PM this evening.  These predictions range from around Louisville to eastern Kentucky.  Even a subtle shift in the surface low pressure center will have large impacts on the precipitation type and amounts here in central Kentucky and southern Indiana.  http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

One thing that looks certain, this low pressure is significantly deep for late March, and it will bring gusty conditions into our region and it will allow for snow accumulations north and west of its track.  The image below is from the meteorology department at Penn State University.  It indicates the average forecast for pressure (the contours) from the SREF model (or Short-Range Ensemble Forecast).  The background colors indicate how far above or below normal the pressure field is.  The low pressure over Central Kentucky registers as 3 to 4 standard deviations below normal for how strong the low is, indicating a fairly significant system.

The following map details the latest forecast, which takes the low across central Kentucky then into the Bluegrass region of Kentucky before heading northeast into far eastern Ohio and western West Virginia.  This low track would place the best chances of accumulating snowfall across portions of central and southern Indiana as well as extreme northern Kentucky, with less of a chance and forecast snow accumulations as you head south into Kentucky.  Continue to monitor the latest NWS Louisville forecast as the forecast and accumulation amounts are fine-tuned. 



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