2014 Spring Flood Outlook #2 (with video briefing)

This is the final scheduled Spring Flood Outlook for 2014.
For the latest river forecast information, please click here.

 


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...2014 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR STREAMS WITHIN THE NWS CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA...WHICH INCLUDES ILLINOIS RIVER TRIBUTARIES IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT INCLUDES THE ILLINOIS
RIVER DOWN TO LA SALLE. IT ALSO INCLUDES STREAMS WITHIN THE ROCK
RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE ROCK RIVER FROM
ROCKTON DOWN TO DIXON ILLINOIS. THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD
FROM LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY.

...CHANGES SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK ON FEB 20...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWMELT OCCURRED ON FEB 20-21 ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 EXPERIENCED THE MOST MELT AND RUNOFF FROM THIS EVENT.
ALTHOUGH SNOW DEPTHS HAD BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN THOSE
AREAS...THE MELT WAS NOT COMPLETE AND A SNOW COVER REMAINS.
ALSO...WHERE A SIGNIFICANT MELT OCCURRED...A RETURN TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN MANY FIELDS CONTAINING A GREAT DEAL OF
FROZEN WATER AND GROUND ICE. IN MANY OTHER LOCATIONS...THE RAIN
ADDED TO THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK.
ADDITIONAL SNOW HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS WELL SINCE THE FIRST OUTLOOK WAS RELEASED.

...OUTLOOK BRIEF SUMMARY...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR
FLOODING THIS SPRING. IN ADDITION...WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER
ON AREA RIVERS...ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING ARE ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. ICE JAMS CAN RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN WATER
LEVELS IN A VERY SHORT TIME. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL
SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT IN THE COMING WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE
SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.


THIS SPRING OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...SNOWPACK...AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AT THE
TIME OF ISSUANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN
CHANGE RAPIDLY DURING LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE ISSUED EACH LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING IN ADDITION TO THE 7
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE IN FLOOD OR ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

...CURRENT SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT...
AS OF MAR 6TH...SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 20 INCHES. WATER CONTENT OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK AVERAGES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER
WATER CONTENT IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE.

...PAST PRECIPITATION AND SOIL CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SUMMER OF
2013. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING JUNE.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS VARIED ACROSS THE AREA THIS PAST FALL BUT
RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL TO NORMAL. A FEW LOCATIONS DID EXPERIENCE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATTER PART OF FALL.
PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SNOWFALL. FOR THE CHICAGO AREA...THIS WINTER RANKS IN THE TOP
5 SNOWIEST OF ALL TIME. THE AREA ALSO EXPERIENCED A LARGE NUMBER OF
SUBZERO DAYS AS WELL...WHICH PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER ON
AREAS RIVERS AND A DEEPER THAN NORMAL FROST LEVEL.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTH...
SOIL MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS HAD SHALLOW
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT WERE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN
AND SNOWMELT ON FEB 20. FROST DEPTHS WERE REPORTED BETWEEN 8 AND 36
INCHES. FROST DEPTHS CAN VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE
NEXT BASED ON SOIL TYPE...VEGETATIVE COVER...SNOWPACK...AND SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT PRIOR TO FREEZING. FROZEN SOIL CAN INHIBIT THE
INFILTRATION OF SNOWMELT AND INCREASE RUNOFF.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
STREAMFLOW ON AREA RIVERS WAS NEAR NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED MINOR FLOODING FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL BUT
WERE RECEDING. CHICAGO RIVER ICE SPOTTERS REPORTED MOST STREAMS IN
THE ROCK AND UPPER FOX BASINS REMAINED COMPLETELY ICE COVERED. OTHER
RIVERS HAD VARYING DEGREES OF ICE COVER. THE BRIEF WARM-UP AND RAIN
EVENT ON FEB 20 INITIATED SOME RUNOFF AND BEGAN TO LIFT AND BREAK
THE ICE COVER RESULTING IN ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS STILL REMAIN ON
PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. ICE JAMS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT ONCE THE WATER LEVELS BENEATH THE ICE COVER BEGIN TO RISE
AGAIN AND BREAK THE ICE COVER.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
THE SIX TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID MARCH 11 TO MARCH 15 INDICATES
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY...
BASED ON THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...CURRENT STREAMFLOW...FROST
DEPTHS...AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...THERE EXISTS AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK
FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL SNOW
AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT IN THE COMING WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE
SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...WITH THE EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER ON AREA RIVERS...ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM FLOODING ARE ALSO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. ICE JAMS CAN RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN WATER
LEVELS IN A VERY SHORT TIME.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 15.0 16.0 : 35 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 49 46 23 16 <5 <5
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 90 30 20 <5 <5 <5
KOUTS 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 93 30 24 <5 <5 <5
SHELBY 9.0 11.0 12.5 : >95 80 84 35 41 12
MOMENCE 5.0 6.5 9.0 : 73 32 26 12 6 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 58 35 15 7 9 7
FORESMAN 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 56 21 6 <5 <5 <5
IROQUOIS 18.0 24.0 25.0 : 90 58 9 7 6 <5
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 22.0 26.0 : 60 40 13 13 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 23 15 9 7 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 32 16 12 7 <5 <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : >95 75 30 <5 16 <5
GURNEE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 90 29 43 6 12 <5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 14.0 15.5 : 76 20 49 7 23 <5
DES PLAINES 5.0 8.0 9.0 : 70 21 35 <5 18 <5
RIVERSIDE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 66 24 30 9 7 <5
LEMONT 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 92 47 60 21 26 7
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 11.5 14.5 17.5 : 23 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 21.0 23.0 : 80 40 9 7 <5 <5
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 21 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 9.5 10.5 12.0 : >95 55 83 35 46 18
MONTGOMERY 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 90 44 33 12 <5 <5
DAYTON 12.0 14.0 24.0 : 69 44 29 15 <5 <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 15.0 18.0 : 10 16 7 10 <5 <5
LEONORE 16.0 21.0 26.0 : 38 36 6 10 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 14.0 15.5 : 80 35 41 13 9 <5
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 46 23 26 15 <5 <5
LATHAM PARK 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 38 20 21 15 <5 <5
ROCKFORD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 69 15 53 9 33 6
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 11.0 12.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 12.0 18.0 22.0 : 87 33 21 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 53 16 10 6 <5 <5
DIXON 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 41 15 18 10 6 7
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 7.0 7.5 8.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 18.0 22.0 : 70 40 36 20 <5 <5
OTTAWA 463.0 466.0 469.0 : 56 30 23 12 6 6
LA SALLE 20.0 27.0 31.0 : 92 69 21 13 <5 <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.4 7.2 8.1 8.5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 6.8 7.1 7.8 9.1 10.4 11.3 12.3
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 10.3 10.8 11.3 12.0 13.7 14.9 15.8
SOUTH HOLLAND 11.4 11.7 12.3 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.0
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 9.8 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.9 12.5 12.8
KOUTS 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.6 13.9
SHELBY 10.7 10.9 11.6 12.3 13.0 14.3 15.2
MOMENCE 4.3 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.6 8.6 10.5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 10.0 10.9 11.7 12.4 13.6 15.3 18.9
FORESMAN 15.2 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.1 20.9 23.3
IROQUOIS 16.6 18.1 20.4 22.2 23.4 24.1 25.1
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 15.4 16.5 17.4 18.7 20.4 22.7 24.1
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 10.5 11.4 12.4 13.6 15.8 17.9 20.5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.0 7.1 8.3 9.5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 9.3 10.6 10.9
GURNEE 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.6 10.0 11.3 12.3
LINCOLNSHIRE 11.4 11.7 12.7 14.0 15.4 17.0 19.1
DES PLAINES 3.3 3.7 4.7 6.4 8.3 10.9 12.2
RIVERSIDE 5.8 6.5 6.8 7.3 8.2 9.0 9.9
LEMONT 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.3 12.1 12.9 13.8
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.6
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.7
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.8 7.3
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 6.8 7.6 8.7 10.7 11.8 13.4 14.1
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 10.0 10.2 10.9 11.9 13.6 14.7 16.2
MONTGOMERY 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.9
DAYTON 10.5 10.9 11.5 13.1 14.3 15.5 16.3
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 5.1 5.6 6.6 8.8 12.1 14.5 16.9
LEONORE 8.8 9.8 11.0 14.4 17.7 20.3 22.3
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 10.4 10.5 12.4 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.6
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 7.5 7.7 8.4 9.5 11.1 13.4 13.9
LATHAM PARK 7.5 7.6 8.2 9.2 10.6 12.7 13.4
ROCKFORD 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.7 6.1 6.6
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 7.2 7.8 8.7 10.7 13.2 14.2 15.2
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 5.4 5.6 6.1 7.2 8.4 9.3 10.1
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 11.2 11.8 13.2 15.0 17.8 19.5 20.8
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 10.1 10.8 12.0 13.3 15.2 16.2 17.9
DIXON 11.9 12.5 13.6 15.4 17.1 19.6 22.9
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.6 7.1
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 12.8 13.7 15.6 17.0 19.6 21.3 23.3
OTTAWA 460.9 461.7 462.0 463.7 465.7 468.8 470.3
LA SALLE 19.5 21.5 22.9 24.6 26.8 29.5 31.3

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1
SOUTH HOLLAND 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.0
KOUTS 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.9
SHELBY 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.2
MOMENCE 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7
FORESMAN 7.8 7.6 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.4
IROQUOIS 7.4 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.3 4.9
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.0
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8
GURNEE 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
LINCOLNSHIRE 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
DES PLAINES 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
RIVERSIDE 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
LEMONT 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.4 14.4 14.4
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.1
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
MONTGOMERY 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8
DAYTON 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.2
LEONORE 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.3
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8
LATHAM PARK 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8
ROCKFORD 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
DIXON 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7
OTTAWA 458.7 458.6 458.6 458.6 458.5 458.5 458.5
LA SALLE 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.8


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY
ROADS. TRANSFER TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE
PROPERTY. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY
DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK
AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

NATIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK WILL BE MARCH 17 TO MARCH 21 2014.

THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2014.

$$

MORRIS
 
 


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