December 2011 Warmth

 

December 2011 Temperature Plots

Chicago

Rockford

Chicago December Plot

Rockford December Plot

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
556 AM CST WED DEC 28 2011 /656 AM EST WED DEC 28 2011/

...NUMBER OF DECEMBER 40 DEGREE DAYS COMPARED TO THE RECORDS AND
WHAT IT MIGHT MEAN GOING FORWARD...

WHILE THE AVERAGE HIGH ON THE 1ST OF DECEMBER IS AROUND 40
DEGREES IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD...THAT AVERAGE FALLS ALMOST TEN
DEGREES BY THE END OF THE MONTH. THIS DECEMBER HAS NOT FOLLOWED
THAT CLIMATOLOGICAL DECLINE...CONTINUING TO SEE 40S AND EVEN A FEW
50S THROUGH THE MONTH.


CHICAGO...

THROUGH DECEMBER 27TH...17 DAYS HAVE REACHED AT LEAST 40 DEGREES
THIS MONTH COMPARED TO THE DECEMBER AVERAGE OF TEN. THIS IS TIED
FOR THE 19TH MOST IN DECEMBER SINCE 1872. GIVEN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...THREE MORE DAYS IN AT
LEAST THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. THIS WOULD PLACE CHICAGO AT 20 DAYS
THIS MONTH WHICH WOULD TIE FOR 6TH MOST IN DECEMBER. OF THE FIVE
DECEMBERS THAT WOULD RANK HIGHER...FOUR OF THEM WERE PRIOR TO 1942
WHEN THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE WAS DOWNTOWN. THE MOST NUMBER OF
40 DEGREE OR WARMER DAYS OBSERVED IN A DECEMBER WAS 26 IN 1923.

LOOKING AT THIS FACTOID GOING FORWARD...WHAT MIGHT THIS MEAN FOR
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY? ON AVERAGE...THE REST OF METEOROLOGICAL
WINTER SEES 16 DAYS OF 40 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE NUMBER OF 40
DEGREE DAYS OBSERVED THE REST OF WINTER AFTER THE HIGHER RANKING
DECEMBERS THAN 2011 SO FAR WAS 20. AS FOR THE TOP FIVE...WHICH
ARE LIKELY THE ONLY ONES THAT WILL FINISH HIGHER...THE REST OF
WINTER AVERAGED 27 DAYS OF 40 DEGREES OR WARMER...BASICALLY ONE
HALF OF THE REST OF WINTER.


ROCKFORD...

AS OF DECEMBER 27TH...13 DAYS HAVE SEEN A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF AT
LEAST 40 DEGREES THIS MONTH COMPARED TO THE DECEMBER AVERAGE OF
EIGHT. THIS IS TIED FOR 21ST MOST SINCE 1905. GIVEN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...THREE MORE DAYS IN AT
LEAST THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. ROCKFORD WOULD THEN HAVE 16 DAYS WHICH
WOULD BOOST DECEMBER 2011 IN A TIE FOR 8TH PLACE. THE MOST NUMBER
OF 40 DEGREE OR WARMER DAYS OBSERVED IN A DECEMBER WAS 25 IN 1923.

WHAT THIS IMPLIED IN THE PAST FOR LOOKING FORWARD WAS SOMEWHAT OF
A MIXED SIGNAL FOR ROCKFORD. ON AVERAGE...JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
HAVE 13 DAYS OF 40 DEGREES OR WARMER TOTAL. THE NUMBER OF 40
DEGREE DAYS OBSERVED THE REST OF WINTER AFTER THE HIGHER RANKING
DECEMBERS THAN 2011 SO FAR WAS 15. AS FOR THE TOP SEVEN...WHICH
ARE LIKELY THE ONLY ONES THAT WILL FINISH HIGHER THAN THIS
DECEMBER...THERE ACTUALLY WAS A BELOW AVERAGE AMOUNT...WITH ONLY A
MEAN OF 12 DAYS OF 40 DEGREE OR WARMER.

$$

MTF


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