The weekend will end on a cool note before a significant warm-up for Tuesday and Wednesday. Frost is looking likely in outlying areas tonight and a Frost Advisory has been issued.
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Click here for a regional map of the average last freeze date.
In order to gauge the risk of experiencing freezing temperatures through the spring season, consider the tables below. These tables display the probabilities of exceedance for the date of the last spring freeze (32 degrees and colder), as well as the date of the last spring season hard freeze (28 degrees and colder) at both Chicago and Rockford. To interpret these tables consider, for example, the 10th percentile for Chicago in the table below. The date listed is May 7th for the date of the last freeze. This means that of all the years in the history for Chicago dating back to the late 1800s 10% of the years experienced the final spring freeze on a date later than May 7th. So, statistically speaking there is a 10% chance that freezing temperatures will still be observed at least once after April 12th. Notice the dates at Rockford are later.
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Chicago , IL
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Probability of Exceedance
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Date of Last Spring Freeze (32° or colder)
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Date of Last Spring Hard Freeze (28° or colder)
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Earliest
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March 16th
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March 4th
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90%
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April 5th
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March 24th
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70%
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April 12th
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March 31st
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50%
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April 18th
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April 7th
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30%
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April 24th
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April 11th
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10%
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May 7th
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April 20th
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Latest
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May 25th
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May 10th
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Rockford , IL
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Probability of Exceedance
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Date of Last Spring Freeze (32° or colder)
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Date of Last Spring Hard Freeze (28° or colder)
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Earliest
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April 7th
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March 27th
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90%
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April 16th
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April 5th
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70%
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April 25th
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April 10th
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50%
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May 1st
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April 15th
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30%
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May 7th
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April 21st
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10%
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May 17th
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April 30th
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Latest
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May 27th
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May 11th
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Observed Last Freeze Thus Far: