National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

DROUGHT BRIEFING PAGE

 

Synopsis	US Drought Monitor	Local Area Affected	State and Local Government Actions	Soil Moisture Conditions	Agricultural Impacts
Hydrologic Impacts	Fire Danger Hazards	Climate Summary	Long Range Precip. &  Temperature Outlooks	U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook	Related Websites

 

The Latest Drought Statement Issued by NWS Chicago/Romeoville (Updated November 16th) 

The next update will be made in December.

 Synopsis 

US Drought Monitor Maps

 

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered. Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested. Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed. Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions. Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

   

 Local Area Affected

State and Local Government Actions

No actions are currently being reported.

Soil Moisture Conditions

The largest total soil moisture storage deficits in our area, seen on the left graphic below, are in northwest and north central Illinois, with near normal total soil moisture storage for the remainder of the area. The soil moisture anomalies in the first 5 feet of soil, seen on the bottom right image, range from a high of roughly 3 inches to 4 inches below normal in far northern Illinois to approximately 1.5 to 2.5 inches below normal in northwest Indiana to near normal in central Illinois. 60% to 90% of farm fields in northern and east central Illinois are considered to have adequate topsoil moisture, with nearly 80% of farm fields in Indiana considered to have adequate topsoil moisture.

 

Agricultural Impacts

According to the November 13th summary from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, winter wheat across Illinois and Indiana is generally in good to excellent condition.

Farmers and farm bureaus across the area reported primarily poor corn yields, though there was some significant variability from field to field. A study in Illinois found that that in absolute bushels per acre, the expected corn yield loss is projected to be almost identical to the devastating 1988 drought, though the relative percentage loss of the expected yield will be slightly less than 1988 because of the faster growing, higher yielding hybrid corn grown today. There were better than expected soybean yields on many farms due to the more frequent rain and cooler temperatures later in the summer.

A report in the Chicago Tribune found that in Christmas tree groves, many of the younger trees, planted in 2011 and 2012, were killed by the lack of rain and the weeks of intense heat in the summer.

Click here for the latest Crop Progress and Condition Report in Illinois

Click here for the latest Crop Progress and Condition Report in Indiana

Hydrologic Impacts (River and Streamflows and Groundwater Conditions)

Rivers and streams across the area are at near to below normal flows, with some near record low flows for November. Due to the low water conditions in northwest and north central Illinois in early September, the orifice for the river gauge on the Pecatonica River near Shirland in Winnebago County was out of the water, requiring the USGS to run a new line to the gauge. Below is a photo of the low water conditions on the Pecatonica River in early September, courtesy of the USGS:

Below are real-time streamflow conditions from USGS WaterWatch:

   

Streamflow data from select USGS locations as of Nov 16, 2012

 

Stream/Location	Current Flow cubic ft/sec (cfs)	Long Term Median (cfs)
Des Plaines River
Gurnee, IL	24	94
Fox River
Montgomery, IL	673	947
Dayton, IL	918	1200
Iroquois River
Iroquois, IL	78	173
Chebanse, IL	235	393
Kankakee River
Shelby, IN	664	1140
Wilmington, IL	1420	2290
Vermilion River
Pontiac, IL	20	50
Leonore, IL	71	183
Illinois River
Marseilles, IL	996	6889
Pecatonica River
Shirland, IL	932	1010
Rock River
Rockton, IL	2620	3050
Byron, IL	2300	5340

At the end of October, shallow groundwater levels in northeast Illinois were reported near normal to 2 feet below normal compared to a 15 year average. 

USGS groundwater levels in western Lee county as of November 15th were below the lowest November median. Records have been kept at these wells since 1992.

Fire Danger Hazards

The current KBDI: Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana: LOW

The current Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) Observed Fire Danger Class: MODERATE

Residents are still urged to consult local authorities before burning, as well as being cautious with farm equipment, cigarettes, matches, and other open flames or activity that could create sparks.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KBDI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each. Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) KBDI Value Description of Fire Potential 0 to 200 Low - Wet with little danger of fire initiation 201 to 400 Moderate - Drying occurring with some fire danger 401 to 600 High - Ground cover dry and will burn readily 601 to 800 Extreme - Dead and live fuels will burn readily KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at: http://www.wfas.us/

 

Climate Summary 

 The images below show the amount of precipitation that has fallen across the region in the past 7 and 30 days, respectively:

Precipitation Last 7 Days	Precipitation Last 30 Days

 Below are tables for various observation sites across the area comparing 2012 year to date precipitation through November 14th, summer 2012 precipitation and fall 2012 precipitation to normals: 

	Chicago-O'Hare	Rockford	Romeoville	Valparaiso 5NNE	Pontiac	Kankakee	Rensselaer	Paw Paw 2NW	Paxton 2WSW
2012	24.42	20.86	28.38	28.38	24.44	30.92	30.35	20.45	25.55
Average	32.82	32.82	35.84	36.58	32.55	34.65	34.84	32.93	33.71
Departure from Avg.	-8.40	-11.96	-7.46	-8.20	-8.11	-3.73	-4.49	-12.48	-8.16
Percent of Avg.	74	64	79	78	75	89	87	62	76

 

	Chicago-O'Hare	Rockford	Romeoville	Valparaiso 5NNE	Pontiac	Kankakee	Rensselaer	Paw Paw 2NW	Paxton 2WSW
Summer 2012	6.63	5.72	10.02	12.24	6.76	11.92	11.07	7.46	7.43
Average	12.05	13.19	13.12	13.65	11.44	12.10	12.00	12.64	11.75
Depatures from Avg	-5.42	-7.47	-3.10	-1.41	-4.68	-0.18	-0.93	-4.91	-4.32
Percent of Avg	55	43	76	90	59	99	92	60	63

 

  

	Chicago-O'Hare	Rockford	Romeoville	Valparaiso 5NNE	Pontiac	Kankakee	Rensselaer	Paw Paw 2NW	Paxton 2WSW
Fall 2012	5.58	4.76	5.99	6.02	9.19	9.84	9.15	5.26	9.20
Average	7.69	7.16	8.02	8.34	7.57	7.87	8.02	7.65	7.78
Depatures from Avg	-2.11	-2.40	-2.03	-2.32	+1.62	+1.97	+1.13	-2.39	+1.42
Percent of Avg	73	66	75	72	121	125	114	69	118

 

Maps below from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center show the percent of normal precipitation by month across the Midwest since May.

The higher resolution image below is of the year to date percent of normal rainfall as of November 16th:

 

 Long Range Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Below is the 5-day forecast precipitation outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:

Below is the 8-14 day precipitation and temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) :  

 Below is the one month precipitation and temperature outlook from the CPC:

 Below is the 90-day precipitation and temperature outlook from the CPC:

 

Finally, here is a look at the US Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued by the CPC:

Questions or Comments:

If you have any questions or comments about this information, please contact:

National Weather Service- Chicago

333 West University Drive Romeoville, IL 60446

Phone: 815-834-0600  Email: lot.webmaster@noaa.gov

Acknowledgements:

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations, USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.

Related Websites: 

The Illinois Drought Response Task Force:

Drought.illinois.gov

Indiana Drought Information:

Drought.in.gov 

For state climate impacts:
http://www.stateclimate.org/

Illinois State Climatologist:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/

Indiana State Climate Office:
https://climate.agry.purdue.edu/climate/index.asp

Illinois Water Survey Drought Pages:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/hilites/drought/

U.S. Drought Portal:
http://www.drought.gov

USGS Water Conditions
http://water.usgs.gov/

Drought Impact Reporter  view or submit drought impact reports
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/

Illinois Farm Bureau Farm Week Crop Watchers: cropwatchers.ilfb.org/

 

 

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