Chicago Still Just Shy of Record # of 80 Degree Days

Saturday's high temperature in Chicago fell 1 degree shy of 80 degrees, leaving the yearly total number of 80 degree days at 101. Interestingly, the last time the temperature hit 80 in Chicago was back on September 12th, if we don't reach 80 again this year, then that would go down tied for the 7th earliest last 80 degree day of the year ever in Chicago! Remarkable, considering we are only 2 days shy of tying the record for the most number of 80 degree days ever in Chicago! The chart below shows that the chances of a particular day reaching 80 degrees starts to rapidly decrease over the next couple weeks, with less than a 5% chance climatologically of any given day reaching 80 by the end of October. This does not bode well for Chicago's chances of reaching the record of 103 days at or above 80 because after a warm up on Wednesday, a strong cold front is forecast to hit and produce a prolonged period of below average temperatures for the couple weeks of October. So other than a chance of nearing 80 next Wednesday, chances are looking dismal at this point for reaching a record number of 80 degree days for the year. In fact, of all the 80 degree days ever in Chicago in October, more than 3/4th of them have been in the first half of the month, meaning we're more than 3 times more likely to have an 80 degree day during the first half of the month than the last...

 chart showing chances of reach 80 degrees by each day

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