Spring Flood Outlook #1 Issued Feb 21, 2013

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1100 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...2013 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR STREAMS WITHIN THE NWS CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA...WHICH INCLUDES ILLINOIS RIVER TRIBUTARIES IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT INCLUDES THE ILLINOIS
RIVER DOWN TO LA SALLE. IT ALSO INCLUDES STREAMS WITHIN THE ROCK
RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE ROCK RIVER FROM
ROCKTON DOWN TO DIXON ILLINOIS. THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD
FROM LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY.

...OUTLOOK BRIEF SUMMARY...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS COMING SPRING RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT
SNOWMELT IN THE COMING WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF ANY
FUTURE FLOODING.

THIS SPRING OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...SNOWPACK...AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AT THE
TIME OF ISSUANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN
CHANGE RAPIDLY DURING LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE ISSUED EACH LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING IN ADDITION TO THE 7
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE IN FLOOD OR ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

...CURRENT SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT...
AS OF FEB 21...THE ONLY SNOW REMAINING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS WAS
ACROSS AREAS BORDERING THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE. NWS OBSERVERS AND
COCORAHS OBSERVERS REPORTED SNOW DEPTHS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 2 INCHES IN
THOSE AREAS. WATER EQUIVALENTS OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.3 INCH. A WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA MAY ADD ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TO THE
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PAST PRECIPITATION AND SOIL CONDITIONS...
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PLAGUED NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DURING THE SUMMER OF 2012 AND PERSISTED INTO FALL. AS OF FEB
21...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUED OVER A LARGE AREA OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME RIVER LOCATIONS RECORDED NEAR RECORD
LOW STREAMFLOWS THIS PAST SUMMER. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL WAS
50 TO 75 PERCENT OF MEAN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
RAIN. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN AREAS ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER THAT HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SUMMER AND EXTENDING
INTO THE FALL. SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 HAVE EXPERIENCED A SLIGHT
RECHARGE IN SOIL MOISTURE IN THE UPPER SOIL PROFILE DURING JANUARY
AND FEBRUARY. HOWEVER...IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
FROZEN GROUND AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH RAIN HAS INFILTRATED INTO
THE SOIL PROFILE AND HOW MUCH SOIL MOISTURE RECHARGE HAS OCCURRED.
FROST DEPTHS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF FEB 21 WERE BETWEEN 6
AND 10 INCHES.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
STREAMFLOWS THIS PAST SUMMER FELL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS AS A RESULT OF
THE DROUGHT. RECENT RAINFALL DURING JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED STREAMFLOW ON AREA RIVERS. MANY LOCATIONS
WERE NOW REPORTING NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NWS CHICAGO RIVER ICE SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT ADDITIONAL ICE WAS
FORMING ON PORTIONS OF THE ROCK...KANKAKEE...AND FOX RIVERS AS A
RESULT OF RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES. ICE JAMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS
FLOWS INCREASE AND THE ICE BEGINS TO BREAK UP AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
THE SIX TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FEBRUARY 26 TO MARCH 2 INDICATES
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY
INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY...
BASED ON THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...CURRENT STREAMFLOW...FROST
DEPTHS...AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS
COMING SPRING RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT IN THE COMING
WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2013 - 5/26/2013

: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 15.0 16.0 : 14 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 31 42 9 13 <5 <5
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
KOUTS 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHELBY 9.0 11.0 12.5 : 65 86 9 39 <5 14
MOMENCE 5.0 6.5 9.0 : 19 31 6 13 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 24 37 <5 9 <5 8
FORESMAN 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 21 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
IROQUOIS 18.0 24.0 25.0 : 57 62 <5 8 <5 <5
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 22.0 26.0 : 65 68 11 11 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 13 14 <5 8 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 13 19 6 6 <5 <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 78 63 <5 6 <5 <5
GURNEE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 41 31 <5 8 <5 <5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 14.0 15.5 : 24 16 <5 8 <5 <5
DES PLAINES 5.0 8.0 9.0 : 24 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVERSIDE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 24 21 <5 9 <5 <5
LEMONT 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 45 41 14 18 <5 6
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 11.5 14.5 17.5 : 11 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 21.0 23.0 : 39 42 <5 8 <5 <5
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 11 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWATER 9.5 10.5 12.0 : 59 60 39 32 13 16
MONTGOMERY 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 50 44 6 11 <5 <5
DAYTON 12.0 14.0 24.0 : 42 42 11 16 <5 <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 15.0 18.0 : 11 14 6 9 <5 <5
LEONORE 16.0 21.0 26.0 : 32 37 <5 9 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 14.0 15.5 : 37 39 11 13 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 42 27 31 16 <5 <5
LATHAM PARK 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 39 21 21 11 <5 <5
ROCKFORD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 23 13 <5 8 <5 6
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 11.0 12.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 12.0 18.0 22.0 : 60 36 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 29 16 <5 8 <5 <5
DIXON 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 11 <5 8 <5 <5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 7.0 7.5 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 18.0 22.0 : 29 41 16 24 <5 <5
OTTAWA 463.0 466.0 469.0 : 27 36 11 14 <5 6
LA SALLE 20.0 27.0 31.0 : 68 68 11 16 <5 <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2013 - 5/26/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 3.3 3.5 4.5 5.2 6.4 7.5 7.8
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 4.1 4.7 5.9 7.1 8.9 10.7 11.4
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 8.5 9.5 10.2 11.1 12.3 14.0 14.7
SOUTH HOLLAND 8.4 8.9 10.9 11.7 13.3 14.4 14.7
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 5.8 6.3 7.4 8.2 9.1 9.8 10.0
KOUTS 7.0 7.5 8.6 9.3 10.2 10.9 11.1
SHELBY 7.1 7.6 8.7 9.7 10.5 11.2 13.6
MOMENCE 2.8 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.5 7.1
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 7.5 8.7 9.7 11.0 12.0 13.3 16.3
FORESMAN 12.7 13.1 14.5 16.3 17.7 18.8 19.4
IROQUOIS 13.1 13.6 16.7 18.9 21.9 22.8 23.4
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 11.1 14.0 17.6 18.5 20.3 22.7 24.2
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 7.8 8.8 10.1 12.2 14.6 16.6 18.7
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 3.0 3.4 4.1 5.1 5.9 6.8 8.1
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 5.8 6.5 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.5
GURNEE 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.0
LINCOLNSHIRE 9.0 9.8 10.3 11.1 12.5 13.6 14.1
DES PLAINES 1.7 2.0 2.5 3.5 5.0 6.7 7.2
RIVERSIDE 4.2 4.7 5.6 6.4 7.0 7.5 8.3
LEMONT 7.6 8.2 9.1 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.9
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 9.3 9.5 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.6 12.0
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.6 20.9
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 3.6 3.8 4.6 5.2 6.0 6.5 7.0
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 4.0 4.9 6.6 9.1 10.7 13.1 13.4
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 8.0 8.6 9.1 9.7 11.1 12.6 13.2
MONTGOMERY 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.0
DAYTON 8.7 9.3 10.2 11.8 12.8 14.5 15.6
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 4.6 5.4 6.9 9.1 12.1 14.5 16.3
LEONORE 7.2 8.7 10.3 13.4 17.3 20.3 22.4
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 8.8 9.2 10.1 11.4 13.0 14.4 15.0
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 6.7 7.4 8.0 9.0 11.5 12.5 13.7
LATHAM PARK 6.8 7.4 7.9 8.8 10.9 11.8 13.3
ROCKFORD 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.9 5.6 6.7
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 5.0 5.5 6.0 7.6 9.0 10.2 10.9
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 5.3 5.7 6.2 7.1 8.3 8.8 9.6
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 9.5 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.7 15.3 17.1
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 8.6 9.5 10.2 11.2 13.3 14.9 15.9
DIXON 10.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 14.7 16.0 17.1
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 3.2 3.4 4.2 4.8 5.6 6.3 6.9
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 7.1 8.0 10.4 14.1 17.0 20.2 21.4
OTTAWA 459.1 459.2 459.8 461.8 463.3 466.9 468.5
LA SALLE 14.0 15.1 19.3 22.9 24.9 28.0 29.3

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2013 - 5/26/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0
SOUTH HOLLAND 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4
KOUTS 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.6
SHELBY 5.6 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.9
MOMENCE 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7
FORESMAN 7.6 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.8 5.6
IROQUOIS 7.1 6.8 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.9
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.0
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
GURNEE 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6
LINCOLNSHIRE 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.3
DES PLAINES 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
RIVERSIDE 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9
LEMONT 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.0
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.7
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWATER 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.5
MONTGOMERY 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0
DAYTON 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.3
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7
LEONORE 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.6
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.2
LATHAM PARK 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.0
ROCKFORD 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.8
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.4
DIXON 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.4 8.1 8.0
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6
OTTAWA 458.7 458.7 458.6 458.6 458.5 458.5 458.5
LA SALLE 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.0 10.9 10.8

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY
ROADS. TRANSFER TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE
PROPERTY. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY
DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK
AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 7 2013.

NATIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK WILL BE MARCH 18 TO MARCH 22 2013. FOR
MORE INFORMATION GO TO WWW.FLOODSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

$$

MORRIS




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