A chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue today, with a better chance for more widespread thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as a strong cold front sweeps across Wisconsin. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe Thursday and Friday as more of the necessary ingredients (e.g., instability, warm and moist air, lifting mechanisms, and wind profiles) come together.
The best chance for severe weather on Thursday looks to be in the afternoon and approximately southwest of a Janesville to Madison to Wisconsin Dells line. Elsewhere there is a lesser chance for severe weather, but strong thunderstorms are still expected. Keep in mind that severe thunderstorm development will be contingent on cloud cover as well as the location of earlier storms. Potential hazards with any severe storms that develop include hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds.
Like many recent situations, there is quite a bit of uncertainty associated with the exact timing and location of the severe weather development. The CIPS analog guidance indicates that previous weather scenarios similar to the current one have been associated with significant severe weather events. However, similar setups have also been associated with a general lack of severe weather.
Forecast confidence will increase as short term model guidance arrives tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for updates!
National Weather Service - Milwaukee/Sullivan