Long Range Forecast (updated 4 pm Wed Sep 25th)

The following summarizes long range forecasts for Week Two (days 8-14), the current month, and the next two 3 month seasons.  We will also mention the current ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) state and the potential impact on the winter season.

Week Two Forecast:

For southern Wisconsin in week two temperature odds favor warmer than normal.    There is a 21% chance of below normal temperatures (below 52 degrees), a 33% chance of near normal temperatures (52 to 54 degrees), and a 46% chance of above normal temperatures (above 54 degrees).

 

For southern Wisconsin during week two rainfall odds favor wetter than normal.  There is a 28% chance of below normal precipitation (below 0.55"), a 33% chance of near normal precipitation (0.55 to 0.75"), and a 39% chance of above normal precipitation (more than 0.75").

 

 


 Month Forecast valid for: October 2013 (updated Sep 19th)

For southern Wisconsin in October odds favor a warmer than normal month.  There is a 22% chance of below normal temperatures (below 49 degrees), a 33% chance of near normal temperatures (49 to 51 degrees), and a 45% chance of above normal temperatures (above 51 degrees).

 

 

For southern Wisconsin in October there are equal chances of a wet or dry month.   There is a 33% chance of below normal precipitation (below 2.01"), a 34% chance of near normal precipitation (2.01 to 3.07"), and a 33% chance of above normal precipitation (more than 3.07").

 

 

 

 


 

 

 The current state of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a neutral state (Sea Surface Temperatures near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific are near normal).  That was the case last winter and the forecast calls for neutral conditions to persist through the 2013/2014 winter season.   

Seasonal 3 Month Forecast valid for: Winter- December January February 2013/2014 (updated September 19th)

For southern Wisconsin in Winter, there are equal chances of above or below normal temperatures. There is a 33% chance of below normal temperatures (below 20 degrees), a 34% chance of near normal temperatures (20 to 24 degrees), and a 33% chance of above normal temperatures (above 24 degrees).

 

 For southern Wisconsin in Winter there are equal chances for a wet or dry winter.  There is a 33% chance of below normal precipitation (below 3.98"), a 34% chance of near normal precipitation (3.98 to 5.43"), and a 33% chance of above normal precipitation (more than 5.43").

 


 

The graphs below indicate the possibility of being warm/cold/dry/wet during the winter (December January February) depending on the cycle of ENSO and whether you are in south central Wisconsin (Madison) or southeast Wisconsin (Milwaukee).  Odds favor near normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions during a neutral ENSO winter.  However, as shown in the forecast above, the recent warm trend of winters is expected to continue.

 

 

  

 


 Jeff Craven, Science and Operations Officer

National Weather Service Milwaukee Sullivan WI 



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