The Spring Flood Outlook is Now Available

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS AND
THEIR TRIBUTARIES FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 19 THROUGH MARCH 5.

...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT IN THE
LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS...

IN THE TABLES BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE
THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. EXAMPLE...THE OHIO RIVER AT EVANSVILLE HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 42 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 2/23/2010 - 5/24/2010

LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 20 17.9 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.5 24.6 27.2 30.9
MURPHYSBORO 22 17.8 18.9 21.1 22.4 23.8 25.4 28.0 30.2 34.8


CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 2/22/2010 - 5/23/2010

LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
OWENSBORO 40 34.4 37.3 40.1 41.0 44.1 46.9 48.0
NEWBURGH LOWER 38 38.5 41.8 43.5 44.2 46.3 48.8 49.9
EVANSVILLE 42 34.5 37.0 40.6 42.0 44.0 46.0 47.1
MOUNT VERNON 35 33.2 35.6 39.3 41.1 44.2 47.3 48.4
JT MYERS LOWER 37 35.7 39.6 41.5 43.3 48.5 50.9 51.8
SHAWNEETOWN 33 33.5 37.5 40.6 43.3 49.4 51.9 52.9
GOLCONDA 40 35.8 37.6 39.8 41.2 47.8 50.4 51.2

GREEN RIVER
PARADISE 380 375.8 377.6 383.5 388.4 392.9 398.0 400.2
CALHOUN 23 15.4 16.5 21.2 24.1 27.8 31.0 33.6
SPOTTSVILLE 17.7 19.1 24.1 28.3 31.6 35.1 40.2

WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 15 14.4 16.0 17.1 18.6 20.1 20.5 21.5

PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 18 14.5 14.9 17.2 19.3 21.9 23.1 24.5

LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 27 21.8 23.8 26.1 29.5 34.1 35.0 36.6

SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 15 8.6 10.4 11.1 12.6 19.2 21.1 23.5

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS
OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).

...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL OR ABOVE AVERAGE
PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ALONG MOST OF THE
REGION`S RIVERS. THIS OUTLOOK INCLUDES THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS AND EXTENDS TO THE WATERSHEDS OF THEIR TRIBUTARIES.
THIS INCLUDES THE GREEN RIVER IN WEST KENTUCKY AND THE WABASH
...PATOKA...LITTLE WABASH...SKILLET FORK AND BIG MUDDY RIVERS
IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

FLOODING IN THIS REGION OCCURS MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS OF
GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER FLOWS...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR IN FLOODING
IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...IN CONTRAST TO RECENT
YEARS...A HEAVY SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASINS.

...SNOW...FROST AND SOIL CONDITIONS...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. WATER
EQUIVALENTS IN THIS AREA ARE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH. THE
GROUND IS NOT FROZEN ACROSS OUR REGION AND SOIL CONDITIONS
ARE WET.

AS STATED EARLIER...A MUCH DEEPER SNOWPACK EXISTS ACROSS THE
UPPER PARTS OF THE OHIO...TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI BASINS WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 30 INCHES. THERE ARE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2
TO 7 INCHES. THIS MIGHT CAUSE HIGH FLOWS SHOULD THE SNOWPACK
MELT QUICKLY.

...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
MOST STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. NO
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
IN THE SHORT TERM...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO AROUND
ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS. THIS
RAIN WILL MELT MOST OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AROUND THE AREA.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR FEBRUARY 26 THROUGH MARCH 4...
CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. NORMAL
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE BETWEEN 40 AND 44
DEGREES AND NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS AROUND ONE INCH.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MARCH IS BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 INCHES. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK...FOR
MARCH THROUGH MAY...CALLS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL
CONDITIONS MEANS THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL...
NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED ON MARCH 5.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS FOR LONG RANGE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS

CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV/NSA

ADDITIONAL STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH

FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PADUCAH


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