Is the cool start to 2013 any indication of the upcoming summer?

Taking a look back at previous years, there have been some very hot summers (meteorological summer is June-August) that followed a cool start to the year. So far, this year is tied for the 18th coolest start to a year at Paducah, with an average temperature of 44.0 from Jan. 1 to May 6. The other years tied for 18th coolest were 1988 and 2003. From the random, unscientific selection of years that started off cool (1978, 1988, 2003, 2010), there is no clear correlation between summer temps and late winter/early spring temps.

The official summer outlook (June through August) from the Climate Prediction Center calls for above normal temperatures.

Paducah (Period of record starts in 1937):

2010: The hottest summer on record at Paducah was in 2010. The year 2010 started off as the 23rd coolest, with an average temperature of 44.5 for the Jan. 1 to May 6 period.

1988, 2003: The summer of 1988 was the 16th warmest, following the 18th coolest start. The cool start to 2003 was followed by the 9th coolest summer.

1978: The coolest start to a year at Paducah was in 1978, with an average temperature of 38.8 from Jan. 1 to May 6. The summer of 1978 was the 21st warmest at Paducah, with an average temperature of 78.2.

Evansville (Period of record starts in 1897):

2013: 34th coolest start (42.6 degrees - Jan 1 to May 6)

2010: tie for 37th coolest start (42.9 degrees). Summer was tied for 3rd warmest (80.3 degrees). 

1988, 2003: 1988 was tied for 23rd coolest start (41.8 degrees), followed by the 36th warmest summer (about normal - 77.8 degrees). 2003 was tied for 25th coolest start (41.9 degrees), followed by the 11th coolest summer (tie, 74.7 degrees).

1978: Coolest start to any year (35.6 degrees). The summer of 1978 was the 45th warmest summer (about normal) with an average temp of 77.5.

Cape Girardeau (Period of record starts in 1960):

2013: 16th coolest start (43.6 degrees - Jan 1 to May 6)

2010: Summer data incomplete.

1988, 2003: 1988 was tied for 13th coolest start (43.2 degrees), followed by the 8th warmest summer (tie - 79.0 degrees). 2003 was 12th coolest start (tie, 43.1 degrees), followed by the 7th coolest summer (75.8 degrees).

1978: Coolest start to any year (37.9 degrees). The summer of 1978 was the 20th warmest summer (about normal) with an average temp of 77.8.



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