Monthly Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
935 PM MDT FRI JUL 04 2008

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 4.4 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 6/26/2008 - 10/23/2008

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5
SALIDA 9 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 6.9
WELLSVILLE 9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6
PARKDALE 9 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.6
CANON CITY 9 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3
PORTLAND 9 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4
PUEBLO 8 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.3 6.8 7.1 8.0
AVONDALE 7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.7 7.6
NEPESTA 16.5 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.2
OLNEY SPRINGS 8 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.4 6.2 6.9
ROCKY FORD 10 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.8 5.2
LA JUNTA 10 8.7 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.5 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.5
LAMAR 11 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.8

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.7
FOUNTAIN 8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 7.2
PINON 7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.4 5.9
PUEBLO 10 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.6

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.8 7.0 8.9

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2
TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.6 7.8
TRINIDAD 11 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0
LAS ANIMAS 9 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.4 6.9 7.6

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN JUNE.
THE PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES AT COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO WERE
0.9 AND 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE
AT ALAMOSA WAS 0.6 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN JUNE.  THE PRIMARY
SITE AT COLORADO SPRINGS WAS 1.82 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE. THE PRIMARY
SITES AND PUEBLO AND ALAMOSA WERE BOTH 0.44 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE.

MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK JUST ABOUT MELTED OUT DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW STILL REMAINED. STREAMFLOW WAS
GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE. SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM NEAR AVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS TO BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE. AT THE END OF
MAY...THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE
OVERALL. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 93 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
STORAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR JULY...AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER...FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB. YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING
ON THE LIGHT BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.


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