Monthly Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
630 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2008

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 3.1 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 7/24/2008 - 11/20/2008

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1
SALIDA 9 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8
WELLSVILLE 9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8
PARKDALE 9 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9
CANON CITY 9 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.7 8.0
PORTLAND 9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8
PUEBLO 8 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 6.5 7.1
AVONDALE 7 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.4 5.2 5.6 7.0
NEPESTA 16.5 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.8
OLNEY SPRINGS 8 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.3
ROCKY FORD 10 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.8
LA JUNTA 10 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.3 10.5 10.6 11.2
LAMAR 11 5.7 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.4

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.6
FOUNTAIN 8 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.9
PINON 7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 5.4
PUEBLO 10 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 6.2

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.1 6.4 8.8

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2
TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.9 7.4 7.8
TRINIDAD 11 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0
LAS ANIMAS 9 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.6

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN JULY.  THE PRIMARY
OBSERVATION SITE AT COLORADO SPRINGS WAS OVER FOUR DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE PRIMARY SITES AT ALAMOSA AND PUEBLO WERE AROUND
ONE OR TWO DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN JULY ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVED NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY
SITE AT COLORADO SPRINGS WAS OVER TWO AND A HALF INCHES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE PRIMARY SITES AT ALAMOSA AND PUEBLO WERE AROUND A HALF
INCH BELOW AVERAGE.

STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN JULY.  SOIL
MOISTURE
WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THE END OF JUNE...THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 84 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
STORAGE OVERALL. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 86 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE STORAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST...SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER...FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.


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