Monthly Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
738 AM MDT THU OCT 02 2008

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 2.4 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 9/25/2008 - 1/22/2009

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
SALIDA 9 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6
WELLSVILLE 9 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0
PARKDALE 9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
CANON CITY 9 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2
PORTLAND 9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
PUEBLO 8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 4.1
AVONDALE 7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.6
NEPESTA 16.5 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.4
OLNEY SPRINGS 8 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.9
ROCKY FORD 10 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 3.0
LA JUNTA 10 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.7 9.2
LAMAR 11 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.6 7.1

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1
FOUNTAIN 8 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5
PINON 7 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.5
PUEBLO 10 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.5

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 6 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9
TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.1
TRINIDAD 11 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7
LAS ANIMAS 9 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.5 7.0

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS IN SEPTEMBER WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES AT COLORADO SPRINGS AND ALAMOSA WERE 0.5
AND 0.3 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE IN
PUEBLO WAS 0.9 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN SEPTEMBER...EXCEPT FOR
SPOTTY LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. THE
PRIMARY SITES AT PUEBLO AND ALAMOSA WERE 0.07 AND 0.68 INCHES BELOW
AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. COLORADO SPRINGS WAS ONE OF THE SITES
RECEIVING ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THE MONTH. THE PRIMARY
SITE AT THE AIRPORT WAS 3.74 INCHES ABOVE AVERAGE.

STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE IN SEPTEMBER.  SOIL MOISTURE
WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE...EXCEPT FOR SPOTTY POCKETS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THE END OF AUGUST...
OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE. THE ARKANSAS BASIN
REPORTED 89 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE OVERALL. THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN REPORTED 86 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER...NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER...FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.


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