Monthly Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
645 PM MDT SAT NOV 01 2008

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 2.0 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 10/23/2008 - 2/19/2009


LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
SALIDA 9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
WELLSVILLE 9 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8
PARKDALE 9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1
CANON CITY 9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9
PORTLAND 9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
PUEBLO 8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.7
AVONDALE 7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4
NEPESTA 16.5 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6
OLNEY SPRINGS 8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9
ROCKY FORD 10 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
LA JUNTA 10 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.7
LAMAR 11 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.4

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.6
FOUNTAIN 8 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1
PINON 7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
PUEBLO 10 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.5

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 6 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.9
TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5
TRINIDAD 11 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5
LAS ANIMAS 9 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.5 6.8

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO IN OCTOBER. THE PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES AT
COLORADO SPRINGS AND ALAMOSA WERE 1.9 AND 0.9 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE IN PUEBLO WAS RIGHT AT
AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN OCTOBER...AND NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
THE PRIMARY SITES AT ALAMOSA AND PUEBLO WERE 0.18 AND 0.02 INCHES
ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE AT COLORADO SPRINGS
WAS 0.72 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE.

STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE IN OCTOBER.  SOIL MOISTURE
RANGED FROM BELOW AVERAGE WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
EAST OF THE CORRIDOR. AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER...OVERALL RESERVOIR
STORAGE
WAS BELOW AVERAGE. THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 92 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE STORAGE OVERALL. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 81
PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER...DECEMBER AND JANUARY...FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING AT...ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.


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