Monthly Hydrologic Outlook

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
730 PM MST WED MAR 03 2010

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 3.8 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/2/2010 - 6/29/2010

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9
SALIDA 8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.6
WELLSVILLE 9 6.0 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.4
PARKDALE 9 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.2
CANON CITY 9 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.6
PORTLAND 9 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 7.5
PUEBLO 8 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.7 6.8 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.1
AVONDALE 7 3.9 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.2 10.0
NEPESTA 16.5 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.8
FOWLER 8 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.9 9.5
ROCKY FORD 10 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.2 7.2
LA JUNTA 10 8.5 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 13.1
LAMAR 11 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.3 9.2 10.6

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.6
FOUNTAIN 8 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.1 7.7
PINON 7 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.9 6.2
PUEBLO 10 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.9

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 4.1 4.6 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.2 14.9

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.5
TRINIDAD LAKE 10 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.9
TRINIDAD 11 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.2
LAS ANIMAS 9 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.1 6.7 7.0 7.9 9.0 11.5

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IN FEBRUARY. THE PRIMARY
OBSERVATION SITES AT PUEBLO...COLORADO SPRINGS AND ALAMOSA WERE
5.6...4.0 AND 4.7 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION IN FEBRUARY WAS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE PRIMARY SITES AT PUEBLO
AND COLORADO SPRINGS WERE 0.51...0.14 INCHES ABOVE AVERAGE...
RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE AT ALAMOSA WAS 0.02 INCHES BELOW
AVERAGE.

MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS RUNNING PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THE END OF FEBRUARY. IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 98 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE SNOWPACK AT THE END OF FEBRUARY. IN SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 108 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE SNOWPACK.

STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AT
THE END OF FEBRUARY. SOIL MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

AT THE END OF FEBRUARY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS GENERALLY
RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 103 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
STORAGE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED
94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE
NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE.

...EXPLANATION OF CONTENTS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

$$

LW


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