Spring Flood Outlook

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
430 PM MST FRI MAR 5 2010

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS NEAR
AVERAGE IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
NEAR AVERAGE IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN...

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 5 2010 TO MARCH 19 2010.

...OUTLOOK FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
NEAR AVERAGE. ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE
BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 3.8 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/2/2010 - 6/29/2010

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9
SALIDA 8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.6
WELLSVILLE 9 6.0 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.4
PARKDALE 9 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.2
CANON CITY 9 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.6
PORTLAND 9 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 7.5
PUEBLO 8 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.7 6.8 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.1
AVONDALE 7 3.9 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.2 10.0
NEPESTA 16.5 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.8
FOWLER 8 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.9 9.5
ROCKY FORD 10 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.2 7.2
LA JUNTA 10 8.5 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 13.1
LAMAR 11 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.3 9.2 10.6

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.6
FOUNTAIN 8 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.1 7.7
PINON 7 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.9 6.2
PUEBLO 10 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.9

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 4.1 4.6 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.2 14.9

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.5
TRINIDAD LAKE 10 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.9
TRINIDAD 11 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.2
LAS ANIMAS 9 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.1 6.7 7.0 7.9 9.0 11.5

FROM THE TABLE ABOVE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT ALL LOCATIONS BUT ONE
HAVE A LESS THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AT LA JUNTA HAS A LESS THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THESE PERCENTAGES ARE PRETTY TYPICAL OF THE
SNOWMELT FLOODING THREAT IN ANY GIVEN YEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
THREAT OF SNOWMELT FLOODING IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN THIS YEAR IS NEAR
AVERAGE.

ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING AT ANY OF THE POINTS...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP
...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

...OUTLOOK FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN...FROM SNOWMELT
ALONE...IS NEAR AVERAGE. ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO
DEVELOP...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO
PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS RIVER STAGES AS PRESENTED FOR THE
ARKANSAS BASIN ABOVE ARE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE FOR THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN. THE EXTENDED STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL NEEDED TO
SUPPLY THESE NUMBERS IS CURRENTLY UNDER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE IS PROVIDED HERE.

SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE IS RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE...MEASURING
108 PERCENT OF NORMAL ON MARCH 1ST. STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE AND
RESERVOIR STORAGE ARE ALSO RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE. SNOWMELT FLOWS
FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF SEASON ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR
AVERAGE...RANGING FROM 85 TO 115 PERCENT OF NORMAL. NEAR AVERAGE
SNOWPACK COUPLED WITH NEAR AVERAGE STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE AND
RESERVOIR STORAGE...HAS RESULTED IN A FORECAST OF NEAR AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF SEASON. CONSEQUENTLY...
THE THREAT OF SNOWMELT FLOODING IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN THIS
YEAR IS NEAR AVERAGE.

ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC
THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

...FLOOD ASSESSMENT QUALIFIER...

THESE FLOOD POTENTIAL ASSESSMENTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND PROJECTIONS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
COMING MONTHS. IT DOES NOT REFLECT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD MORE
EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP. IF UNUSUALLY WARM OR WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE SNOWMELT
RUNOFF PERIOD...THEN MUCH MORE SEVERE FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

...SUMMARY OF PAST...PRESENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS...

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY AVERAGED 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. IT HAS BEEN A
LITTLE MILDER ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE AVERAGED 0 TO 2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ON MARCH 1ST...WITH THE
ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTING 98 PERCENT OF NORMAL SNOWPACK. THE SNOWPACK
IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS ALSO RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE AT 108
PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE ACROSS BOTH THE
ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE BASINS THIS WINTER. THE MOUNTAINOUS
PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 92 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ON MARCH 1ST. THE MOUNTAINOUS PORTION OF THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 105 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS BOTH THE
ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE BASINS AT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. SOIL
MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN AND
GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN.

OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO AVERAGE. ON
MARCH 1ST...COMBINED STORAGE LEVELS IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN WERE
AROUND 103 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHILE COMBINED LEVELS IN THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE BASIN WERE AROUND 94 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE
NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE.

...EXPLANATION OF CONTENTS...

THIS LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED
USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA
INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW
COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

...SCHEDULE OF OUTLOOKS...

THIS IS THE FINAL SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
FOR 2010. ADDITIONAL OUTLOOKS MAY BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR
THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR UNDER THIS SAME
PRODUCT NAME AND HEADING.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

$$


LW


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