Monthly Hydrologic Outlook

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
635 AM MDT WED MAY 05 2010

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 3.7 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 4/22/2010 - 8/19/2010

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7
SALIDA 8 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.4
WELLSVILLE 9 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.2
PARKDALE 9 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.2
CANON CITY 9 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7
PORTLAND 9 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.0
PUEBLO 8 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.7 6.9 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.1
AVONDALE 7 4.2 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.4 6.8 7.1 8.0 9.8
NEPESTA 16.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5
FOWLER 8 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.6 7.2 8.3
ROCKY FORD 10 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.1 6.1
LA JUNTA 10 8.8 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.7
LAMAR 11 7.2 7.4 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.9 11.3

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.2
FOUNTAIN 8 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.0 8.2
PINON 7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.7 6.4
PUEBLO 10 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 7.0

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 3.6 4.3 4.7 5.5 6.0 6.7 7.3 9.6 14.9

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 7 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.8
TRINIDAD LAKE 10 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.6 7.8 7.9
TRINIDAD 11 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.2
LAS ANIMAS 9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.0 10.1

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING APRIL. THE PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES AT
PUEBLO...COLORADO SPRINGS AND ALAMOSA WERE 1.1...2.6 AND 1.6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION IN APRIL WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE PRIMARY SITES AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS WERE
0.11 AND 0.37 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE
AT ALAMOSA WAS 0.08 ABOVE AVERAGE.
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ON MAY
1ST...WITH THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTING 89 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SNOWPACK. THE SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL.

STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS BOTH THE
ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE BASINS AT THE BEGINNING OF MAY. SOIL
MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE ARKANSAS BASIN AND
NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE RIO GRANDE BASIN.

OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOVE ACROSS THE
ARKANSAS BASIN AND A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN. ON MAY 1ST...COMBINED STORAGE LEVELS IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN WERE AROUND 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHILE COMBINED LEVELS IN
THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE BASIN WERE AROUND 89 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MAY...JUNE AND JULY...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE EQUAL
CHANCES OF BEING AT...ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

$$

LW



Return to News Archive

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.