Wyoming Spring 2014 Snowmelt Flood Potential Outlook---issued February 25th

Quick Synopsis:

 

Mountain snowpack and associated snow water equivalents (SWEs) across Wyoming continued to be above average by the middle of February.  SWEs at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations (8,000’ – 9.500’) continued to be the highest across northeastern Wyoming at 120 to 155 percent of median; while across southern Wyoming, SWEs were the lowest at 95 to 115 percent of median at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations.

This outlook is based on various diverse hydrological factors such as snow water equivalents (SWEs) in the mountain snowpack, basin morphology (i.e. how basins respond to snowmelt), extent of burn scars from 2012 and 2013 fires, amount of bark beetle kill, soil moisture trends, and likely temperature and precipitation trends during late spring/early summer. 

 

HIGHLIGHTS:

 

Moderate to High potential for flooding associated with snowmelt is expected across various headwater streams along the Powder River Drainage as well as along eastern portions of the Big Horn Basin.  Streams with the highest potential for flooding include the Middle Fork of the Powder River (Kaycee), Medicine Lodge Creek, Ten Sleep Creek (Ten Sleep), and Clear Creek (Buffalo)…

 

Moderate to High potential for flooding due to snowmelt is also expected along the Encampment River near Encampment and Riverside…

 

Moderate potential for flooding associated with snowmelt is forecasted along the Wind River near Riverton, the North Fork Shoshone River near Wapiti, the North Platte River at Saratoga, and the Little Snake River near Baggs…

 

…All other of headwater basins across Wyoming can expect a generally low potential for flooding due to springtime snowmelt...

 

The next graphical outlook will be issued around the 25th of March. 

 

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Other hydrological information for Wyoming can be found at the NOAA hydrology website:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/riw/?n=snowpack

 

Monthly Wyoming Hydrologic Summary and Graphics:

(updated monthly around the 15th of every month)

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/hydro_report.pdf

Wyoming Drought Information Page:

(updated at least once a month)

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/riw/?n=drought

 

Wyoming Graphical Water Supply Outlook:

(updated by the 15th of every month—January-June)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/watersupply.png

 

Wyoming Average Precipitation by Basin:

 (updated monthly)

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/wyomingprecip.png

Wyoming Spring Snowmelt Runoff Flood Potential Graphic:

(updated by the 25th of the month---January-May)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/riw/hydro/floodoutlook.png

Current and Forecast Wyoming Streamflows and/or River Stages:

 

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=riw

 

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/wy/nwis/rt

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The current Wyoming Spring 2014 Snowmelt Runoff Flood Potential Outlook graphic:


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