*UPDATED* Record Heat on Monday

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Warm southwest flow brought unseasonably warm air to the state today. The result was near-record or record high temperatures for this time of year, some 15-20F above normal in most cases. The airmass that was across Wyoming was very anomalous with the afternoon balloon launch recording a 700MB temperature of 18 degrees, which was one degree above the forecast, and above the 99th percentile of what can be expected this time of year.

Forecast 700mb Temperatures on Monday - Click to enlarge
Click Image To Enlarge

The above graph shows the Climatologically "normal" 700MB Temperature values at Riverton (red line). It also shows the record high (light green) a low (black)  values recorded by the balloon launch at Riverton/Lander through the years. Once the expected value nears either 2 standard deviations above or below the mean value, we can anticipate temperature records at the surface to be threatened.

A very warm and dry airmass originating from the Southwest will continue to move east tomorrow. An upper level disturbance will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow. It will likely remain too dry for storms across southern Wyoming. However, the wave will cool things off a bit east of the divide with temperatures only expected to be about 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday.

 Monday's Upper Air Pattern - Click to enlarge  Tuesday's Upper Air Pattern - Click to enlarge
Click Image To Enlarge

The pattern for Monday brought a hot ridge into southern Wyoming and southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system over California.  
Click Image To Enlarge

This upper level low will move northeast to be over the state as an open trough / short wave on Tuesday. It will also bring cooler air with it and another chance for showers and thunderstorms across the north and west, with a slight chance for thunderstorms across central Wyoming.
 GFS 700mb Temperature and Wind Forecast - Click to enlarge
Click Loop To Enlarge

This loop shows the 700 MB Temperature (shaded) and winds (blue arrows) in 6 hour time steps from the GFS model. The loop begins at 06Z Sunday (Midnight Saturday) and ends at 18z Tuesday (Noon on Tuesday).


A Selection Of Record, Recorded, and Average High Temperatures For June 10th
Location Period of Record Record High (year) Actual High Average High

Rock Springs Airport

1948 - Present 87   (1956) 88 71
Downtown Riverton 1907 - Present 95   (1973) 94 77
Riverton Airport 1996 - Present 93   (2001) 96 71
Casper Airport 1948 - Present 94   (1988) 91 75
Lander Area 1891 - Present 94   (1918) 94 (tied)
73
Buffalo Airport 1998 - Present 94   (1918) 82 69
Big Piney Airport 1976 - Present 86   (1996) 90 67
Greybull Airport 1998 - Present 97   (2001) 92 74
Worland Airport 1960 - Present 95   (1980) 90 78
Jackson Airport 1905 - Present 87   (1918) 82 70
         



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