...Spring Flood Outlook...

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...
...AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
OSAGE...WHITE...BLACK AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS THIS SPRING...

...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE NEOSHO RIVER BASIN
THIS SPRING...
THE OFFICIAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK DATE WAS
SELECTED TO SUPPORT THE NOAA NATIONAL SPRING OUTLOOK PRESS
BRIEFING WHICH WILL BE HELD ON THURSDAY MARCH 20 2008. THE
NATIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK WILL BE MARCH 17-21 2008.
RIVER FORECAST CENTERS PROVIDE SPRING FLOOD GUIDANCE TO LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES JUST BEFORE THE OFFICIAL SPRING FLOOD
OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS)
HAVE OUTLOOK MODELS THAT TYPICALLY RUN FOR A PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS
WHICH PROVIDE NEEDED INFORMATION FOR SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INCLUDING THE OSAGE...NEOSHO...WHITE...BLACK AND GASCONADE RIVER
BASINS AND AREA LAKES.
CURRENTLY THERE IS MINOR SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS A PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW COVER EXISTS TO CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING.
MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW COVER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB
SITE.
http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov
AS OF FEBRUARY 19 2008...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATED ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS OUT OF ALL CATEGORICAL
DROUGHT INDICES. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PAST THREE MONTHS
HAVE AVERAGED ONE TO TWO INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE GASCONADE RIVER BASIN.
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS WERE AVERAGE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ALL
OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SURFACE MOISTURE CONDITIONS BASED ON THE CURRENT CROP MOISTURE
INDEX INDICATED ABNORMALLY MOIST TO WET ACROSS ALL OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE SELECTED CURRENT OBSERVED PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL
STREAM FLOWS IN THE OZARKS.
CURRENT RIVER 152%
JAMES RIVER 357%
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES FOR THE WHITE BASIN
RESERVOIR.
TABLE ROCK DAM. 85%
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS AREA PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
THE FOLLOWING ARE A FEW SITES IN MISSOURI THAT HAVE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FEBRUARY 22, 2008 - APRIL 24 2008
LOCATION        FS    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------       ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY     15.0   6.0  7.2  8.2  9.5 12.1 15.7 18.2 20.0 21.0
SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE      10.0   4.9  5.2  5.7  6.4  6.9  8.0 10.3 11.9 13.5
WACO          19.0   6.7  9.1 10.0 11.7 13.1 15.1 17.6 20.4 24.9
SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN        14.0   3.7  4.3  4.9  5.4  6.1  6.6  8.0  9.7 11.6
BIG PINEY
FT LEONARD WD 13.0  12.2 12.6 13.6 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.7 17.0 18.0
GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN    21.0   7.5  8.8 10.9 12.1 15.2 17.1 19.4 20.8 23.4
JEROME        15.0   8.1  9.4 10.5 12.3 14.2 15.5 17.1 19.9 23.3
THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS THROUGH THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH INDICATED A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THE 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY INDICATED AN
ABOVE AVERAGE TREND FOR TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE NORMAL RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SPRINGTIME FOR SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN.
SPRINGFIELD
PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MARCH 3.82 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MARCH 46.3 DEGREES
PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR APRIL 4.31 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR APRIL 55.6 DEGREES
PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MAY 4.57 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MAY 64.7 DEGREES
JOPLIN
PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MARCH 3.62 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MARCH 48.2 DEGREES
PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR APRIL 4.32 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR APRIL 57.7 DEGREES
PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MAY 5.07 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MAY 66.1 INCHES
CURRENT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURE...SOIL MOISTURE...STREAM
FLOW...DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND FLOOD SAFETY INFORMATION CAN BE
OBTAINED THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TUA/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE.PHP
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY/
USERS OF THIS OUTLOOK ARE ENCOURAGED TO ACCESS THE LATEST NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE INFORMATION FOR UPDATES OF METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON FLOOD AND OR FIRE
PLANNING.
AN UPDATED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY MARCH 7
2008.


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