...2nd Spring Flood Outlook...

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE OSAGE...WHITE
...BLACK AND GASCONADE RIVER BASINS THIS SPRING...

...A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER THE NEOSHO
RIVER BASIN THIS SPRING...

THE OFFICIAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK DATE WAS
SELECTED TO SUPPORT THE NOAA NATIONAL SPRING OUTLOOK PRESS
BRIEFING WHICH WILL BE HELD ON THURSDAY MARCH 20 2008. THE
NATIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK WILL BE MARCH 17-21 2008.

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INCLUDING THE OSAGE...NEOSHO...WHITE...BLACK AND GASCONADE RIVER
BASINS AND AREA LAKES.

SINCE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 22...
SLIGHTLY WETTER SOIL AND MOISTURE CONDITIONS DEVELOPED WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SPRING FLOODING DURING
NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS MINOR SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE SAC...
JAMES AND NIANGUA RIVER BASIN. HOWEVER...A SNOW STORM ON MARCH 6
AND 7 PRODUCED A BAND OF ONE TO FIVE INCHES ALONG THE MISSOURI
ARKANSAS BORDER FROM BRANSON TO ALTON. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF
0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION PREVAIL IN THESE AREAS WHICH
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREAM...CREEK AND RIVER RISES AS THE SNOW MELTS
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW COVER EXISTS TO
CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW COVER CAN
BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE.

http://www.nohrcs.nws.gov

AS OF MARCH 5...2008...AND BASED ON MISSOURI`S 30 DAY
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY FROM THE DROUGHT MONITORING INDEX...WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WAS RANKED THE 7TH WETTEST PERIOD...AND THE
WESTERN OZARKS AND EASTERN OZARKS WERE RANKED THE 2ND WETTEST
PERIOD. IN THE PAST 60 TO 90 DAYS...THE WESTERN AND EASTERN OZARKS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE TOP 5 WETTEST PERIOD ON RECORD. SPECIFICALLY...
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI HAD THERE WETTEST FEBRUARY EVER WITH 6.41
INCHES. NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY IS 2.28 INCHES.

AS OF MARCH 4...2008...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATED ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AS
WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS OUT OF ALL CATEGORICAL DROUGHT
INDICES.

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS WERE AVERAGE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ALL
OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SURFACE MOISTURE CONDITIONS BASED ON THE CURRENT CROP MOISTURE
INDEX INDICATED ABNORMALLY MOIST TO WET ACROSS ALL OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES FOR THE WHITE BASIN
RESERVOIR.

BEAVER DAM. 94%
TABLE ROCK DAM. 85%
BULL SHOALS DAM. 90%
NORFOLK DAM. 87%

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).

THE FOLLOWING ARE A FEW SITES IN MISSOURI THAT HAVE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS.

                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                             VALID FEBRUARY 29, 2008 - MAY 29 2008

LOCATION          FS    90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
                     
ELK RIVER

TIFF CITY            15.0    8.1    9.0    10.3    12.3    14.5    17.1    18.3    21.2    21.7


SPRING RIVER

CARTHAGE       10.0    5.0    5.6    6.1    6.9    7.6    8.8    11.2    12.5    13.7


WACO                 19.0    8.7   10.9    11.9    12.3    14.4    16.1    18.5    23.2    24.8


SHOAL CREEK


JOPLIN              14.0    4.6    5.2    5.8    6.5    7.2    7.9    9.3    11.1    12.9


BIG PINEY


FT WOOD          13.0    12.2    12.6    13.6    14.5    14.8    15.5    16.7    17.0    18.0


GASCONADE RIVER


HAZELGREEN  21.0    7.5    8.8    10.9    12.1    15.2    17.1    19.4    20.8    23.4


JEROME             15.0    8.1    9.4    10.5    12.3    14.2    15.5    17.1    19.9    23.3

THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS THROUGH THE
THIRD WEEK OF MARCH INDICATED A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR LATE MARCH...APRIL AND MAY
INDICATED AN ABOVE AVERAGE TREND FOR TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE FOLLOWING ARE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES DURING
THE SPRINGTIME FOR SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN.

SPRINGFIELD

PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MARCH 3.82 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MARCH 46.3 DEGREES

PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR APRIL 4.31 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR APRIL 55.6 DEGREES

PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MAY 4.57 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MAY 64.7 DEGREES

JOPLIN

PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MARCH 3.62 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MARCH 48.2 DEGREES

PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR APRIL 4.32 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR APRIL 57.7 DEGREES

PRECIPITATION AVERAGE FOR MAY 5.07 INCHES
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE FOR MAY 66.1 INCHES

CURRENT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURE...SOIL MOISTURE...STREAM
FLOW...DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND FLOOD SAFETY INFORMATION CAN BE
OBTAINED THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

http:www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov       

http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tua/floodclimate/floodclimate.php      

http://www.weather.gov/floodsafety/

USERS OF THIS OUTLOOK ARE ENCOURAGED TO ACCESS THE LATEST NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE INFORMATION FOR UPDATES OF METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON FLOOD AND OR FIRE
PLANNING.

THIS IS THE LAST OFFICIAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THIS YEAR. IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT...ANOTHER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.



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