Severe Storms and Flash Flooding Possible Today

Severe Storms and Flash Flooding Possible

Expected Weather:  A cold front will make its way across the region this afternoon and evening with widespread thunderstorms along this front.  The atmosphere is very moist and characterized by ample wind shear.  Instability may be on the low side due to cloudy skies today, but there are indications that instability will increase by afternoon.  If so, this combination of conditions will contribute to the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across the region.

Timing:  Rain with embedded thunderstorms will effect parts of north central Kansas this morning...and gradually push toward the east.  The best chance for severe weather will come during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Thunderstorms should move out of the area by 3 AM.

Tornadic Threat:  If the atmosphere becomes unstable this afternoon, there will be a small threat for tornadoes this afternoon and evening.

Damaging Wind Threat:  The best chance for severe weather appears to be in the form of damaging winds up to 70 mph. 

Hail Threat:  Isolated hail up to the size of quarters will be possible.

Flash Flood Threat:   Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop.  This will be capable of causing flash flooding.  The greatest flash flood threat will be over parts of northeast Kansas that have received heavy rainfall over the past week, particularly the Delaware river and its tributaries as well as urban areas. 

You can follow our latest (slightly more technical) thinking on the forecast by viewing our Area Forecast Discussion or by visiting any of the links below. 

 Click on the links below for more information 

Weather Story
Weather Story of the Day - Click to enlarge
Most Recent Video Briefing
NWS Video Weather Briefing- Click to enlarge
SPC Day 1
OutlookStorm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook- Click to enlarge

SPC Day 2
OutlookStorm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook- Click to enlarge

SPC Day 3
OutlookStorm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook- Click to enlarge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Topeka Area Hazardous Weather Outlook- Click to enlarge
Local Radar for Topeka, KS - Click to enlarge
Most Recent Local Storm Reports
Most Recent Storm Reports- Click to enlarge
Graphical Forecast
Graphical Interactive Forecast for the Central Plains- Click to enlarge
Precipitation Forecasts
HPC Precipitation Forecasts- Click to enlarge


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