National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

November 2004 - a Review of Weather, Temperatures, and Precipitation for the Quad State Region.

 

Weather Summary for November 2004

 

November continued the very active and wet weather pattern begun in October.  During the first few days of November, a quasi-stationary boundary meandered across or near the Quad State Region.  Several surface areas of low pressure developed and moved along the front producing widespread showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder.  Rainfall amounts between the 1^st and 3^rd were substantial, ranging between 1.5 and 3.5 inches.  A Flood Watch was issued early on the 1^st and Flash Flood Warnings were issued for 9 counties during the evening hours on the 1^st.  Flooding reports were isolated.  Most of the rain fell over a long enough duration so as to prevent widespread flooding.  High pressure then settled across the region through the 10^th, with mild and dry weather.  An area of low pressure developed over the Southern Plains and quickly moved east by the 12^th, staying just south of the region.  Overrunning showers and thunderstorms developed on the 11^th, producing rain amounts ranging from just under 1 inch to a little over 2 inches.   Several Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories were issued for thunderstorms with the heaviest rains.

 

The last half of November was characterized by a zonal (westerly) to slightly southwesterly flow aloft, with numerous upper level disturbances.  At the surface, several areas of low pressure moved east and northeast across the region.  Each of these short waves/storm systems brought showers, and sometimes thunderstorms.  While each episode only generated between one-quarter and one-half inch of rain, the cumulative effects made for a very wet period.  Totals during the last half of the month ranged from 2 to 3 inches.  Rivers that rose during the heavy rain events of the first half of November never had time to fully recover to seasonal normal levels.  As a consequence, many rivers across the region reached high levels but did not exceed flood stage.  Creeks and ditches had higher than normal levels and many agricultural fields had standing water. 

 

November Temperatures Across the Quad State Region

 

The following table (Figure 1) displays average November 2004 temperatures at five locations across the Quad State Region where this information is consistently collected. For comparison, historical average daily temperatures for November are also given for these locations. The Normal period used to calculate normal high, low, and average daily temperatures and rainfall is currently 1971 through 2000.

 

The high, low and average daily temperatures are averaged for all days of November 2004. Column 5 allows a comparison of the November 2004 average temperature to the highest and lowest November average temperatures recorded during the Normal Period (1971 through 2000). High and Low daily temperatures were not compared.

 

The last column indicates the difference of the November 2004 average temperature from the November average temperature observed during the Normal Period, and the percentile of the November 2004 mean temperature compared to November mean temperatures during the Normal Period.

 

Percentile is the percentage of years during the Normal Period that had mean November temperatures equal to or below the 2004 mean temperature. In most cases, this is based on the entire 30-year Normal Period, but in some cases data was missing that only allowed comparison to 28 or 29 years of the Normal Period. 

 

Figure 1. November 2004 Daily Temperatures (F) Compared to November Normal Daily Temperatures Based on the Normal Period 1971-2000, at Five Quad State Region Locations.

(source: Midwest Regional Climate Center) 

 

Location	Temp > Normal 2004	High	Low	Mean	1971-2000 Range of Mean Temps * (Normal Period)	2004 Deg from Mean Percentile**
Carbondale IL	Norm > 2004 >	55.9 59.6	34.7 41.5	45.5 50.7	max: 51.2 in 1999 min:  36.4 in 1976	+5.2 (°F) 98
Cape Girardeau MO	Norm > 2004 >	56.5 59.1	37.6 42.1	47.3 50.8	max: 52.3 in 1990 min:  38.1 in 1976	+3.5 87
Evansville IN	Norm > 2004 >	55.5 57.9	36.8 42.4	46.4 50.4	max: 51.4 in 1994 min:  38.7 in 1976	+2.3 92
Paducah KY	Norm > 2004 >	57.5 59.6	38.1 42.5	48.0 51.4	max: 53.4 in 1990 min:  39.9 in 1976	+3.4 85
Poplar Bluff MO	Norm > 2004 >	57.8 59.6	37.1 43.5	47.8 51.9	max: 54.2 in 1999 min:  39.0 in 1976	+4.1 91

* This column indicates the highest and lowest November mean temperatures observed during the Normal Period of 1971-2000.

** Percentile is calculated as percent of November temperatures during the normal period that were equal to or below the 2004 November average temperature.

 

As this Figure 1 indicates, temperatures across the Quad State Region for the month of November were all well above normal. Carbondale was the warmest of the five, at 5.2 degrees above normal, ranking in the 98^st percentile. Other locations ranged from +2.3 degrees (92^nd percentile) in Evansville, to +4.1 degrees (91^st percentile) at Poplar Bluff.

 

November 2004 saw near record high average temperatures at these five locations across the Quad State Region.

 

November Precipitation Across the Quad State Region

 

The next table (Figure 2) displays normal November precipitation and the observed precipitation for November 2004. The historical time periods are the same as those in Figure 1. Frozen precipitation – if any – is not available from this data except as liquid equivalent, which is included in the total precipitation for the month.

 

Figure 2. November 2004 Observed Precipitation (inches) and November Normal Precipitation for Five Quad State Region Locations

(source: Midwest Regional Climate Center) 

 

Location	Normal** Record***	2004	2004 Difference	Range (1971-2000)	Percentile* (2004)
Carbondale	4.57 9.56 in 1921	6.01	+1.44	max: 9.13 - 1994 min: 0.51 - 1999	71
Cape Girardeau	4.64 8.36 in 1991	6.89	+2.25	max: 8.36 - 1991 min: 0.34 - 1976	84
Evansville	4.19 9.24 in 1921	6.23	+2.04	max: 7.96 - 1988 min: 0.51 - 1999	82
Paducah	4.53 13.80 in 1957	7.04	+2.51	max: 10.50 - 1973 min: 0.90 - 1999	85
Poplar Bluff	4.88 10.71 in 1973	6.41	+1.53	max: 10.71 - 1973 min: 0.73 - 1976	72

* Percentile is the percentage of years during the Normal Period (1971-2000) that had total

  November precipitation equal to or less than November 2004 (it ranges from zero to 100).

** Normal is average November precipitation during the Normal Period: 1971-2000

*** Record is highest November precipitation for all years available at the location.

 

The data indicates that November 2004 precipitation was well above normal November Precipitation at all of these locations. Amounts ranged from +1.53 at Poplar Bluff (in the 72^nd percentile) to +2.51 at Paducah (in the 85^th percentile). None of these amounts approached record levels, however.

 

In summary, November was much wetter and warmer than normal across the Quad State Region.