October 2004 - a Review of Weather, Temperatures, and Precipitation for the Quad State Region.

 

Weather Summary for October 2004

 

The weather pattern for October was very unsettled, bringing many fronts across the Quad State Region that produced showers and thunderstorms, some of which produced severe weather.  Three very quick cold fronts moved across the region on October 2nd, 4th, and 9th.  These fronts produced little in the way of precipitation, with most locations receiving less than one-tenth of an inch.  The front on the 9th became stationary over the Tennessee Valley on the 10th as Tropical Storm Matthew came on shore near New Orleans.  TS Matthew moved slowly up the Mississippi Valley and then the Ohio Valley through the 13th of the month.  Showers and thunderstorms broke out on the 11th.  Most of the region received a good dose of rain for the next couple of days, with storm totals of 1 to 3 inches.  Because of the existing dry conditions and slow and steady rate of rain, no flooding problems were reported.

 

On the 18th, a spring-like storm developed over the Southern Plains, lifting a warm front across the region.  Showers and thunderstorms developed along the front.  Several of the storms were severe, and three tornadoes touched down that night.  Rainfall amounts averaged between 1 and 2 inches.  Many locations received quick downpours of heavy rainfall that produced widespread street flooding and isolated cases of flash flooding.  Five Flash Flood Warnings and numerous Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories were issued.

 

The next front moved through on the 23rd, producing showers and a few thunderstorms.  Rainfall amounts averaged between and 1 inch.  A nearly stationary front wavered across the region between the 26th and 28th.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along the front.  Rain amounts across the Region varied greatly ranging from to almost 2 inches.  A couple of Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories were needed to cover street flooding and standing water in low-lying areas.  Another cold front passed across the region during the last couple of days of October, bringing more showers.  Rain amounts were light, averaging around inch.

 

October Temperatures Across the Quad State Region

 

The following table (Figure 1) displays average October 2004 temperatures at five locations across the Quad State Region where this information is consistently collected. For comparison, historical average daily temperatures for October are also given for these locations. The Normal period used to calculate normal high, low, and average daily temperatures and rainfall is currently 1971 through 2000.

 

The high, low and average daily temperatures are averaged for all days of October 2004. Column 5 allows a comparison of the October 2004 average temperature to the highest and lowest October average temperatures recorded during the Normal Period (1971 through 2000). High and Low daily temperatures were not compared.

 

The last column indicates the difference of the October 2004 average temperature from the October average temperature observed during the Normal Period, and the percentile of the October 2004 mean temperature compared to October mean temperatures during the Normal Period.

 

Percentile is the percentage of years during the Normal Period that had mean October temperatures equal to or below the 2004 mean temperature. In most cases, this is based on the entire 30-year Normal Period, but in some cases data was missing that only allowed comparison to 28 or 29 years of the Normal Period. 

 

Figure 1. October 2004 Daily Temperatures (F) Compared to October Normal Daily Temperatures Based on the Normal Period 1971-2000, at Five Quad State Region Locations.

(source: Midwest Regional Climate Center) 

 

 

 

Location

 

Temp >

Normal

2004

 

High

 

Low

 

Mean    

 

1971-2000 Range of Mean Temps *

(Normal Period)

 

2004 Deg from Mean

Percentile**

 

Carbondale

IL

 

Norm >

2004 >

 

69.7

71.5

 

42.3

47.9

 

56.2

60.0

 

max: 64.9 in 1971

min:  50.3 in 1976

 

+3.8 (F)

91

 

Cape Girardeau MO

 

Norm >

2004 >

 

70.4

71.9

 

46.7

48.1

 

58.8

60.3

 

max: 83.0 in 1995

min:  73.6 in 1992

 

+1.5

61

 

Evansville

IN

 

Norm >

2004 >

 

69.6

70.2

 

45.4

49.5

 

57.8

60.1

 

max: 63.7 in 1971

min:  51.1 in 1987

 

+2.3

78

 

Paducah

KY

 

Norm >

2004 >

 

71.0

72.4

 

46.8

50.7

 

59.2

61.8

 

max: 64.9 in 1971

min:  52.7 in 1988

 

+2.6

85

 

Poplar Bluff

MO

 

Norm >

2004 >

 

71.6

72.9

 

46.2

51.8

 

59.2

62.6

 

max: 66.3 in 1971

min:  53.6 in 1976

 

+3.4

91

* This column indicates the highest and lowest October mean temperatures observed during the Normal Period of 1971-2000.

** Percentile is calculated as percent of October temperatures during the normal period that were equal to or below the 2004 October average temperature.

 

As Figure 1 indicates, temperatures at these locations across the Quad State Region for the month of October were all significantly above normal. Carbondale and Poplar Bluff were the warmest, at 3.8 and 3.4 degrees above normal, respectively, with both in the 91st percentile of temperature.

 

Paducah and Evansville were also well above normal, in the 85th and 78th percentile, respectively, while Cape Girardeau was the nearest to normal, at +1.5 degrees and in the 61st percentile.

 

October Precipitation Across the Quad State Region

 


The next table (Figure 2) displays normal precipitation and the observed precipitation for October 2004 at the five locations. The historical time periods are the same as those in Figure 1. Frozen precipitation if any is not available from this data except as liquid equivalent, which is included in the total precipitation for the month.

 

Figure 2. October 2004 Observed Precipitation (inches) and October Normal Precipitation for Five Quad State Region Locations

(source: Midwest Regional Climate Center) 

 

Location

Normal**

Record***

2004

2004

Difference

Range

(years 1971-2000)

Percentile*

(2004)

Carbondale

IL

2.76

10.11 in 1919

6.31

+3.55

 

max: 6.30 - 1983

min: 0.58 - 1971

100

Cape Girardeau

MO

3.19

10.65 in 1984

4.67

+1.48

 

max: 10.65 - 1984

min: 0.48 - 1971

80

Evansville

IN

2.82

11.19 in 1910

5.62

+2.80

 

max: 5.62 - 1983

min: 0.59 - 2000

100

 

Paducah

KY

3.45

7.37 in 1998

4.86

+1.41

 

max: 7.37 - 1998

min: 1.17 - 1982

85

 

Poplar Bluff

MO

3.30

11.02 in 1949

4.92

+1.62

 

max: 8.65 - 1984

min: 0.09 - 1989

85

* Percentile is the percentage of years during the Normal Period (1971-2000) that had total

  October precipitation equal to or less than October 2004 (it ranges from zero to 100).

** Normal is average October precipitation during the Normal Period: 1971-2000

*** Record is the highest October precipitation for all years available at the location.

 

As Figure 2 indicates, rainfall for October 2004 was well above normal at all five locations. Precipitation at these locations ranged from 1.41 inches above normal at Paducah to 3.55 inches above normal at Carbondale. Percentiles ranged from 80 to 100.

 

Both Carbondale and Evansville had October 2004 precipitation at the 100th percentile, meaning that none of the years in the normal period had October precipitation greater than October 2004. Neither of these locations had record October rainfall because the highest recorded rainfall (record) at each of these locations was not in years in the normal period.

 

The data indicates that October 2004 was much wetter and warmer than normal across the Quad State Region.


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