FLUS43 KPAH 101312 CCA
HWOPAH
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR NEW DAY ONE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
712 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION WILL SET UP OVER THE 
ENTIRE QUAD-STATE REGION TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MAJOR SEVERE 
WEATHER OUTBREAK. AS A RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS 
OUTLOOKED ALL OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE 
WEATHER. AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A NEW MADRID MISSOURI TO 
CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO MOUNT CARMEL 
ILLINOIS LINE ARE IN A MODERATE RISK AREA. AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND 
EAST OF A MAYFIELD KENTUCKY TO PADUCAH KENTUCKY TO SHAWNEETOWN 
ILLINOIS TO ROCKPORT INDIANA LINE ARE IN A HIGH RISK AREA. THE 
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THESE ELEVATED RISK AREAS WILL BE A STRONG COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE 
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AND  WIND PROFILES 
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND OR BOW 
ECHOES WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A VAN BUREN MISSOURI TO MT VERNON 
ILLINOIS LINE AROUND 10 AM AND CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA AROUND 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIALLY 
DANGEROUS SITUATION...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE MEASURES 
IF NEEDED.     

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

JAP