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Area Forecast Discussion

fxus63 ksgf 310750

area forecast discussion
national weather service springfield mo
250 am cdt sun jul 31 2016

... pattern change expected this week...

. short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 250 am cdt sun jul 31 2016

we are watching short term guidance among sat/rad for any sign
of shower/tstorm development early this sunday morning. cams
has been fairly persistent on developing convection from
southeastern kansas and into the missouri ozarks. at the time
of writing this discussion, there has been some convection
develop across north central kansas and across northeastern
arkansas. overall, think there is a pretty good shot at
development in the early am hours here, especially with the
increasing llj present just upstream of the approaching impulse.

today looks to have the best shot of rain in both short and
long term periods. through the day, clouds and precip will be
possible as an upper level vort pushes through later this morning
and into the afternoon. additional scattered development will be
likely this afternoon, especially close to the surface boundary
draped across our region ... this feature should finally begin to
move northward with time.

. long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 250 am cdt sun jul 31 2016

as advertised, the upper level dome of high pressure should move
closer to the region early next week. this should be enough to
warm temperatures back into the lower to middle 90s across much of
the area. although rain chances should remain rather low in this
pattern, globals are relatively bullish with the qpf signals each
afternoon. temperatures and heat indices would normally support
heat headlines in this setup, however, afternoon/evening isolated
rain/storms will add some level of uncertainty. at the moment,
wednesday and thursday seem to be the hottest days with lowest
probability of rainfall.

by friday, an upper level disturbance will develop across
the southern plains and punch into the western side of the ridge.
if this comes to fruition, the impacts of the high pressure dome
will lessen allowing for rain chances to increase again with
slightly lower temps. confidence in such a subtle shortwave is
questionable this far out, so we`ll wait and see what future
guidance indicates before assuming this is our next pattern
change back to"cooler"/wetter conditions.


. aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z sunday night)
issued at 1142 pm cdt sat jul 30 2016

convection was developing north of a frontal boundary over western
kansas late this evening. short term models continue to expand
this convection overnight as the low level jet intensifies over
the next several hours with the convection eventually moving into
the area after 09z. convection should then spread eastward into
the remainder of the area on sunday morning. additional convection
will be possible during the afternoon should sufficient
instability develop in the wake of the morning convection.


. sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
mo ... none.
ks ... none.


short term ... frye
long term ... frye
aviation ... lindenberg