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Area Forecast Discussion


000
fxus63 ksgf 192046
afdsgf

area forecast discussion
national weather service springfield mo
246 pm cst fri dec 19 2014

. short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 239 pm cst fri dec 19 2014

low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle remain entrenched across the region
this afternoon, with temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper
30s. visible satellite has shown the beginnings of a few breaks in
the stratus across south central kansas, likely in response the
passage of a broad shortwave aloft and associated negative vort
advection. however, with another wave across nebraska and the
dakotas diving south toward the region, along with the loss of
sunshine, it appears likely that stratus and fog will remain across
the entire area through tonight. expect to see a wide variation in
visibility once again, with some areas remaining relatively
unlimited while others experience dense fog. with considerable
uncertainty as to where the most significant fog will set up, will
hold off on any sort of dense fog advisory for now. if trends
become a bit more clear this evening, one may very well end up being
issued later tonight.

after a cloudy/foggy start to the day saturday, some gradual
clearing appears possible by late afternoon. temperatures will also
be a couple of degrees warmer, generally low to mid 40s. southerly
winds will allow temperatures to warm a few more degrees for sunday,
as highs reach the upper 40s in some locations.

. long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 239 pm cst fri dec 19 2014

by monday morning, low pressure will be deepening across the
northeastern plains, with initial southerly winds becoming westerly
as the first of two fronts passes through the area. scattered rain
showers are expected during the day monday in association with this
first front. a much stronger cold front will then pass through the
area tuesday morning, bringing with it additional precipitation and
much colder air. we may see rain mix with and then change over to
light snow tuesday as colder air pushes into the region, though at
this point no accumulation is expected. below normal temperatures
will continue into wednesday.

from christmas day onward, model guidance has been all over the
place with the expected upper level pattern and associated surface
reflection, lending little to no confidence in the day 6/7
timeframe. while some precipitation appears possible by the end of
the week, how much and what type remains very much in question.

&&

. aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z saturday afternoon)
issued at 1135 am cst fri dec 19 2014

ifr conditions are expected to prevail through most of saturday
morning. we are expecting periodic bouts of lifr ... especially
tonight and early saturday morning as ceilings lower and fog
redevelops. it does appear that improving flight conditions will
commence either late saturday morning or saturday afternoon.


&&

. sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
mo ... none.
ks ... none.
&&

$$

short term ... boxell
long term ... boxell
aviation ... schaumann





000
fxus63 ksgf 192046
afdsgf

area forecast discussion
national weather service springfield mo
246 pm cst fri dec 19 2014

. short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 239 pm cst fri dec 19 2014

low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle remain entrenched across the region
this afternoon, with temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper
30s. visible satellite has shown the beginnings of a few breaks in
the stratus across south central kansas, likely in response the
passage of a broad shortwave aloft and associated negative vort
advection. however, with another wave across nebraska and the
dakotas diving south toward the region, along with the loss of
sunshine, it appears likely that stratus and fog will remain across
the entire area through tonight. expect to see a wide variation in
visibility once again, with some areas remaining relatively
unlimited while others experience dense fog. with considerable
uncertainty as to where the most significant fog will set up, will
hold off on any sort of dense fog advisory for now. if trends
become a bit more clear this evening, one may very well end up being
issued later tonight.

after a cloudy/foggy start to the day saturday, some gradual
clearing appears possible by late afternoon. temperatures will also
be a couple of degrees warmer, generally low to mid 40s. southerly
winds will allow temperatures to warm a few more degrees for sunday,
as highs reach the upper 40s in some locations.

. long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 239 pm cst fri dec 19 2014

by monday morning, low pressure will be deepening across the
northeastern plains, with initial southerly winds becoming westerly
as the first of two fronts passes through the area. scattered rain
showers are expected during the day monday in association with this
first front. a much stronger cold front will then pass through the
area tuesday morning, bringing with it additional precipitation and
much colder air. we may see rain mix with and then change over to
light snow tuesday as colder air pushes into the region, though at
this point no accumulation is expected. below normal temperatures
will continue into wednesday.

from christmas day onward, model guidance has been all over the
place with the expected upper level pattern and associated surface
reflection, lending little to no confidence in the day 6/7
timeframe. while some precipitation appears possible by the end of
the week, how much and what type remains very much in question.

&&

. aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z saturday afternoon)
issued at 1135 am cst fri dec 19 2014

ifr conditions are expected to prevail through most of saturday
morning. we are expecting periodic bouts of lifr ... especially
tonight and early saturday morning as ceilings lower and fog
redevelops. it does appear that improving flight conditions will
commence either late saturday morning or saturday afternoon.


&&

. sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
mo ... none.
ks ... none.
&&

$$

short term ... boxell
long term ... boxell
aviation ... schaumann






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