Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 040817 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY AND LATE SUNDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INFLUENCING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S(F). SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A RETURN TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH PLACE THE COLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AT 12Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TRANQUIL TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW DEWPOINTS AT H85 BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS(C) ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL RETURN IN EASTERN COLORADO SETTING UP AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO POSSIBLY DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL STAY WITH 30 POPS IN OUR WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL ALSO AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BY HELPING INFLUENCE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM AROUND 20C ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO NEAR 25C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S(F) TODAY WITH LOW 90S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS(C) ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXPECT A PLEASANT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S(F). HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE DAY BEFORE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM SATURDAY SO HIGHS IN THE 80S(F) TO LOW 90S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BUMP UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. STILL, LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S(F) WILL BE EXPECTED. DAYS 3-7... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE LONGWAVE TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EAST COAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THAT COULD PROPAGATE OUT INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EFFECTIVELY PUSHES THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES FARTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GOING FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE. && .AVIATION... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE DIMINISHING OR MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT HAYS BETWEEN 10-12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AROUND OR AFTER 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 88 62 87 64 / 20 10 10 20 GCK 87 62 86 63 / 20 10 10 20 EHA 87 62 86 64 / 20 20 20 30 LBL 88 62 87 64 / 20 20 10 30 HYS 83 60 86 64 / 20 10 10 20 P28 90 65 89 67 / 40 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN32/02/02
